Travels

The Chinch Bugs have a new CD

2011-11-30T11:12:00.001-06:00

Song snippets from "Broke" are: here!

Bill James 2012 sez...

2011-11-16T11:01:00.007-06:00

Matt Kemp, OF ($36) 31HR 103R 104 RBI 32 SB .293
Mike Stanton, OF (F1, $21) 39 88 103 5 .273
Dee Gordon, SS ($6) 0 72 30 42 .270
Brett Lawrie, 2B or 3B ($6) 22 92 75 30 .284
Matt Moore ($6) no projection
Jason Motte ($6) 81K 5W 29 SV 10.5 br/9 2.80
Kyle Farnsworth ($9) 52 4 23 10.5 3.06

These guys still have the inside track on my protection list.

While Matt Moore is not projected, I found this similarity to be interesting:
Matt Moore: 95.7 mph fastball, throws 71% FB, 14% curve, 14% change
Steve Strasburg:95.8 mph fastball, 73% FB, 13% curve, 13% change

The fastball speeds are 1-2 for pitchers who started in 2011 and are expected to start in 2012. Neftali Feliz threw 96.3 mph, and may start next year, but it is likely his fastball would be somewhat slower over more innings. Bill James projects Feliz as a closer and does not project Strasburg.

And why is fastball speed important? Bill James points out 2011 K rates:
94+ mph=> 8.6 K/9
92-94 mph=> 7.5 K/9
88-90 mph=> 6.2 K/9
<88 mph=> 6.0 K/9

Venn of Political Agitation

2011-10-12T16:05:00.004-05:00

Stolen from the Internet:

Hospital billings

Fantasy Baseball-- Last Day Headlines

2011-09-29T08:41:00.018-05:00

Week by Week Results

The baseball season ended. Kyle Farnsworth and our Tampa Bay Rays held on against the Yankees in 12 innings to advance. The Cardinals, behind Chris Carpenter's complete game shutout, also advanced. This made for a quite unlikely end to the regular season. But, you ask, tell me about your fantasy teams?

Ballywood had a huge closing day, advancing in ERA points where no chance was foreseen. Chris Carpenter (W, 9ip, 0r, 3br, 11K) and Stephen Strasburg (W, 6ip, 0r, 3br, 10K) led the low ERA day. The final totals are first place, 99 points. Second place has 89 points.

The primary obsession is the CBS league. The stakes are 25% for second place, 20% for third place, 10% for forth place. Neftali Feliz picked up a key save and two strikeouts, worth 1.5 points. Second place at 94.5 points was achieved with a 2.5 point margin. As I am checking the IPod during Monica's murder shows, here is the drama in the quest for second place.

No save opp for Cordero in a Reds loss. Four closers remain.

Reyes 1-1 on way to batting title, so my team has a batting champion, FWIW.

An article claims Farnsworth is not a keeper? What will Monica think?

Strasburg 10 Ks, 3 br, 6 ip. Happy to see him leave as 10 more Ks give Montreal another point. Can the Marlins take away his win? 2-1 in 7th with 2 on 2 out, but the inning ends. Strasburg gets the win for Montreal. The Asakusabashi lead in W is one. Storen pitches the ninth and gets the save for Anchorage, which now leads Asakusabashi by one save and Montreal by two saves. Anchorage has no more closers. Asakusabashi needs at least two saves for 12 points. At least one save is critical.

K lead now three. Need David Price to not have many Ks, but assume this point is lost.

Lead over Montreal is just one and perhaps not for long. Hope to get points back with Farnsworth, Motte, Perez, and Feliz.

David Price strikes out three before he exits, so the K point is still in play. Rays behind 7-0. Looks like no Farnsworth.

Hope for saves from Feliz, Perez, Motte

Mavericks lost a BA point, at least for now

Dempster doing well. Losing WHIP point. Up 91.5 to 91 over third place.

Tight races: 1182 Ks to 1182 Ks. Up 3 SB.

Dee Gordon gets a SB.

Walden relieves. His strikeouts can cost. Walden: 0 K, 2 r. Texas leads 3-1.

Feliz strikes out M. Izturis for 1183 K and a lead

Feliz: 2Ks and S #123. The save is worth at least a first place tie (11.5 points), pending Montreal closers.

The Dempster outing (5.2 ip, 9 er, 12 br) is worth a WHIP point, pending Guerra.

Opposing closers to watch: League, Papelbon, Hanrahan, Peralta

Farnsworth strikes out three in the top of the 11th inning. A win may be worth 0.5 points, pending Gio Gonzalez of Oakland, but the game goes to 12 innings.

Papelbon gives up a run. A win by Papelbon may be worse than a save. Papelbon loses. League is the only opposing closer still out, so I project second place for myself, just as elections are sometimes called.

In progress: Oakland/Seattle and Arizona/Dodgers game, where Matt Kemp has a shot for 40/40 in the ninth inning. Kemp strikes out, rather than hitting homerun #40.

At 94.5 points, the lead is 2.5 points.

The 2.5 point lead holds. During period 25, the previous week and one-half, Asakusabashi has advanced 7.5 points. Six of the top 100 players, this period, hit for Asakusabashi-- Kemp, Reyes, Phillips, Fielder, Gordon, Pence. Five of the top 100 pitchers, including top ranked Javier Vazquez, pitch for Asakusabashi. The others are Feliz, Halladay, Perez and Garcia. (Kuroda and Morrow, not active, were also top 100 players. CC Sabathia, is the only starter active this period who is not ranked as having top 100 results.)

Pitching: K ERA WHIP W SV
Pace 45 ---- ----- 3.4 5
Starting Total 849 3.511 1.2687 65 84
Place 8th(-1), 7th(-1), 9th, 5th , 5th
Week 20 62 3.074 1.1287 5 5
Total Week 20 911 3.484 1.2599 70 89
8th, 7th, 9th, 5th, 5th
Week 21 52 4.365 1.2575 3 5
Total Week 21 963 3.527 1.2598 73 94
7th(+1), 6th (+1), 9th, 5th, 5th
Week 22 55 2.827 1.1937 5 6
7th, 6th , 9th, 4th(+1/2) , 5th
Week 23 55 4.373 1.4155 2 2
Week 24 53 3.321 1.400 2 7
Total 1126 3.514 1.2687 82 109
6th, 7th, 9th, 5th, 5th
Week 25 61 2.540 0.9653 6 14
Final 1187 3.466 1.2538 88 123
6th, 6th (+1), 8th (+1), 4th (+1), 1st (+3.5)

Hitting: BA HR RBI R SB
Pace 12 43 45 8
Starting Total 0.2700 233 812 854 147
4th 1st (+1/2) 2nd 1st 2nd (+1/2)
Week 20 0.3019 15 50 54 11
Total Week 20 0.2717 248 866 904 158
4th 1st 2nd 1st 2nd
Week 21 0.2904 15 49 52 5
Total Week 21 0.2726 263 915 956 163
4th, 1st, 1st (+1/2), 1st, 3rd (-1)
0.2730 12 38 40 12
Total Week 22 0.2726 275 953 996 175
4th, 1st, 2nd (-1/2), 1st, 2nd(+1)
Week 23 0.2633 8 32 38 8
Week 24 0.2857 12 34 48 10
Total 0.2727 295 1019 1082 193
4th, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 2nd
Week 25 0.3077 19 55 68 13
Final 0.2745 314 1074 1150 206
3rd (+1), 1st, 3rd, 1st, 2nd

2012 Keepers

2011-09-28T10:43:00.003-05:00

Assuming no trades, here are the players Asakusabashi keeps for 2012.

1) Matt Kemp, OF ($36)... with nearly a triple crown, the most valuable player in the NL becomes a 40/40 with two HR today
2) Mike Stanton, OF (F1, $21)... 34HR, Ozzie's new clean up hitter will be age 22 next year.
3) Dee Gordon, SS ($6)... 50 SB next year seems like a low guess.
4) Brett Lawrie, 2B or 3B ($6)... a 30/30 possibility except that he keeps breaking his fingers
5) Matt Moore ($6)... the top minor league pitcher and possibly the Ray's best in 2012
6) Jason Motte ($6)... the new closer for Saint Louis
7) Kyle Farnsworth ($9)... his stretch performance has been clutch; if Asakusabashi hangs on for second place, a new fish will be named after him. Eno Sarris says he is not a keeper, though.

Also, at $33 or $28, F1, Jose Reyes might be a keeper. Though he may have overachieved in 2011 (BABIP= .353 in 2011 vs. .314 career), a more run friendly park will add to his value.

Fantasy Baseball-- Final Day

2011-09-28T08:36:00.012-05:00

Tuesday, Tuesday.

Kyle Farnsworth got the save against the Yankees to keep Tampa Bay tied with Boston for the Wild Card lead. Jonathon Papelbon saved the game against the Orioles and took away some of the fun. The Wild Card remains tied. But, on Tuesday, Tuesday, Asakusabashi had a second save. Francisco Cordero walked the lead off batter, who was picked off. Then, after three more walks, a double play ball got him the save. Save standings are now 122 (11.5 points), 122, 121 (10 points), 120. It appears that the race for second place will be decided here.

The number six rated player Tuesday was Prince Fielder, 3/3 with 3HR and 5RBI. Jose Reyes was 3/6 with 2HR and a SB. Asakusabashi leads in HR, 312 to 303. In SB, Asakusabashi trails first by 9 and leads third by 5. But, this helps especially in the BA race where Asakusabashi's 0.2743 (10 points) leads 0.2736 (9 points). Nonetheless, Fielder and Reyes make you wonder what a player had to do to be ranked number one for the day.

The most remarkable team performance, ranked number two and almost equal in importance to the saves, was the Javier Vazquez (2.000 ERA, 9K, 0.5556) complete game. The Marlins came back 3-2 in the bottom of the ninth, for the soon retired Jack McKeon and for newly named manager, Ozzie Guillen. Here is how strikeouts look: 1187 (9 points) with Strasburg pitching, Asakusabashi has 1182 (8 points), 1178 (7 points) with David Price pitching. It will be hard to maintain this point.

The Vazquez win makes the race for wins as follows: Asakusabashi has 88 (9 points), the third place Strasburg team has 86 (8 points). Jered Weaver was supposed to pitch, but was scratched. Likewise, Cole Hamels was scratched when the Phillies qualified. So, the Strasburg team is looking to advance two wins with just one starter instead of three. The Vazquez win (and late scratches) appears to have sealed the Asakusabashi win tally at 9 points. It would be hard to get to ten points since that team has 89 wins and both Gio Gonzalez and Tim Hudson pitching.

With a bad enough ERA, Asakusabashi could lose a point: 3.471 (7 points), 3.483 (6 points). (Hope against Matt Harrison.) Or, with good enough WHIP, Asakusabashi could advance two points: 1.2535 (4 points), 1.2524 (5 points), 1.2512 (6 points). (Hope the ex-Cub factor works against Lilly and Dempster.)

But, you want to root for a starting pitcher? Jon Lester needs to not be terrible or the third place team could advance in WHIP. But, if Papelbon gets another save, then that would be bad.

Most likely, it comes down to saves. Save standings are now 122 (11.5 points), 122, 121 (10 points), 120 (9 points). Asakusabashi has Farnsworth, Cordero, Feliz, Perez, Motte and 122 saves. The team currently in third has Papelbon, Hanrahan, League, Peralta and 121 saves. Anchorage has Storen, Santos and 122 saves. The 120 save team has Axford, Hernandez and Rivera. If Asakusabashi and Anchorage can keep a tie for first at 11.5 points, that should seal second place for Asakusabashi. Asakusabashi needs to retain the 1.5 point lead over the Papelbon, Hanrahan, League, Peralta team.

Daily Standings:
Asakusabashi 93.5 (likely -1 in Ks, today)
Third Place 92.0

Curious about the number one ranked performance of yesterday?
It was deemed better than Vazquez, Fielder and Reyes per the CBS computer: Madison Bumgarner (W, 0r, 2h, 9K, 7ip).

Fantasy Baseball-- Final Days

2011-09-27T08:17:00.006-05:00

Monday, Monday, Monday

Four of us saw the Twins lose to the Kansas City speed prospects. The Tampa Bay Rays tied Boston in the Wildcard standings. Meanwhile, Asakusabashi was fighting it out for second place.

Wins are a competitive category. Jamie Garcia (9.000, 5K, 1.2500) started and pitched only four innings of the Cardinals loss. Josh Beckett (9.000, 5K, 1.8333) of the competition pitched six innings and also did not win. Asakusabashi still leads the third place competitor 87 wins (9 points) to 86 wins (8 points).

Saves is another competitive category. Kyle Farnsworth came in with two outs in the ninth to spell James Shields and get a save. Francisco Cordero also got a save. Asakusabashi had finally passed the third place competitor in saves. Montreal's Hanrahan and League got saves though, so that change swung back. Finally, Neftali Feliz saved an important game vs. the Angels making it a 120 save (10.5 points) to 120 save (10.5 points) tie. Can the team with 122 saves (12 points) be caught? Asakusabashi has a chance to advance here, especially if Chris Perez and Jason Motte can join Farnsworth, Cordero and Feliz in the save mix.

Tonight, Javier Vazquez pitches in Asakusabashi's final start. More categories are in play than just wins. ERA is very tight, and two points can be lost with a 0.008 swing. (Hopefully, Jesus Guzman and San Diego can do something at home against Ryan Dempster. Also to be rooted against in terms of opposing runs: Bedard/Harrison/Oswalt) It might take a Javier no-hitter but two points can be made up in WHIP with a 0.0070 advance. (Here, Ryan Dempster and Ted Lilly are the pitchers to root against.) It looks like Asakusabashi will lose a point in Ks unless Matt Garza and David Price don't get K's. So, there is no security in the current standings.

Batting average could affect the outcome. Asakusabashi has 10 points by 0.003, while the third place team has 8 points by less than 0.0001. Either team can lose a point here. The third place team is also in ties for R and HR and is apt to gain or lose 1/2 points. If Matt Scherzer were to actually pitch, strikeouts from him could also mean one point less for the the key competitor, but why would he pitch now?

Daily Standings:
Asakusabashi +1.5 92.5
Competitor +0.5 91.5

The takeaway. This is very close.

Fantasy Baseball-- Final 1/2 week

2011-09-26T09:20:00.009-05:00

Asakusashi gained 4 points to 91, and a tie for second place. Great pitching is the reason for the advance. The season may end at anywhere from second place to forth place, based on the next few days. With five closers, there is a reasonable chance to gain a point or two in saves. Also, there is a good chance to maintain the gains in the wins column and in batting average. A 6 HR lead should be safe for the next three days. For Ballywood, ERA and SV are in play for another point, HR and RBI are in play to lose a point, and the lead of 7 over second place seems secure.

Pitching Performances:
Wednesday-- Jamie Garcia (0.000 ERA, 6K, 0.4286), who pitches again tonight gave up four runs, all unearned, and won the game.
Wednesday-- Javier Vazquez (0.000, 6, 0.4286) won after giving up two hits in 7IP. He has the only other start to go this season for Asakusabashi.
Wednesday-- CC Sabathia (2.454, 6, 1.2273) pitched well, but did not win. The Yankees sadly had him pitch a simulated game Sunday instead of a final tune-up start.
Friday-- Chris Perez (0.000, 2, 0.3333) picked up a win. He also has two saves this period.
Saturday-- Jason Motte (13.500, 6, 1.5000) picked up a win. He also has two saves.
Sunday-- Roy Halladay (2.571, 9, 1.0714) pitched a shutout in his second game of the period and got the win.
Francisco Cordero (4.500, 2, 1.5000) had two saves.
Neftali Feliz (0.000, 1, 1.0000) had two saves.
Kyle Farnsworth (0.000, 2, 0.0000) pitched the ninth on Saturday night, just after Johnny Damon turned a save situation into a 5-1 lead with a 3 run HR. Joel Peralta got the save opportunity on Sunday. Whether Farnsworth or Peralta gets future save opportunities will likely determine second place.

All the starters have pitched exceptionally so far, with two more starts to go. Outstanding pitching, and two wins by relievers have been key.

Brett Lawrie (broken finger), Hunter Pence, Jesus Guzman, Paul Goldschmidt were all injured Monday or Tuesday. All but Lawrie are back for the end of the year. The strong BA week is worth a point, but this is a very precarious point.

Pitching: K ERA WHIP W SV
Week 24 53 3.321 1.400 2 7
Total 1126 3.514 1.2687 82 109
6th, 7th, 9th, 5th, 5th
Week 25a 39 2.438 0.9375 39 5 8
1165 3.476 1.2570 87 117
7th, 6th, 9th, 4th, 4th
K:+5/-15 for 8th/6th
WHIP: 0.0045/ 0.0028 for 8th/10th
W:+1/-1
SV:-1,-2,-4/+3 for 1st to 5th
Asakusabashi: Garcia, Vazquez/5 relievers (Farnsworth)
Mavericks:Beckett/Weaver/Strasburg/ 4 relievers (Peralta)

Hitting: BA HR RBI R SB
Week 24 0.2857 12 34 48 10
Total 0.2727 295 1019 1082 193
Week 25a 0.2957 10 30 44 8
4th, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 2nd
0.2735 305 1049 1126 201
3rd,1st,3rd,1st,2nd
BA: +0.002/-0.0016 for 4th/2nd
HR: +6
SB: -7/+8 for 3rd/1st

Fantasy Baseball-- Week 25

2011-09-19T12:01:00.009-05:00

I went to Oakland and watched the A's play twice and the Giants once. Ballywood did well, advancing to 95.5 points and first place. Asakusabashi slipped further and is now in fourth place at 87 points. There is a solid race for third. Second place is five and one-half points away and looking more distant. Asakusabashi is unlikely to lose further points. But, points that are attainable have yet to be attained.

Week 23 pitching was bad. Javier Vazquez (14K, 0.69 ERA, 0.85 WHIP) with two wins and Francisco Cordero with two saves were very good, but they carried the whole team. No other pitcher had a win or save. Matt Cain (7K, 2.57, 1.00) was good, but the Giants do not score runs for him, only for relievers. Two-starters Harang and Sabathia were bad in Week 24, though R. A. Dickey (11K, 1.84, 1.16) did well in his non-decisions. One-start pitchers, Halladay (7K, 0.00, 0.78) and Cain (9K, 3.18, 1.41) picked up the only wins. One a bright note, Motte, Feliz, Perez and Cordero combined for 7 saves.

Pitching: K ERA WHIP W SV
Pace 45 ---- ----- 3.4 5
Starting Total 849 3.511 1.2687 65 84
Place 8th(-1), 7th(-1), 9th, 5th , 5th
Week 20 62 3.074 1.1287 5 5
Total Week 20 911 3.484 1.2599 70 89
8th, 7th, 9th, 5th, 5th
Week 21 52 4.365 1.2575 3 5
Total Week 21 963 3.527 1.2598 73 94
7th(+1), 6th (+1), 9th, 5th, 5th
Week 22 55 2.827 1.1937 5 6
7th, 6th , 9th, 4th(+1/2) , 5th
Week 23 55 4.373 1.4155 2 2
Week 24 53 3.321 1.400 2 7
Total 1126 3.514 1.2687 82 109
6th, 7th, 9th, 5th, 5th

Four weeks ago:
5 wins=3 places. 11 saves = 3 places. 0.025 WHIP= 3 places. 28K=3 places. 0.02 ERA= 2 places or 0.17ERA= 4 places.

Three weeks ago:
2 wins=2places, 7 wins=4 places. 8 saves=3 places. 28K= 3 points. 11 saves= 4 places. 0.030 WHIP=3 places. 0.16 ERA = 3 places.

Two weeks ago Week:
1 win=1 place, 2 wins = 1 1/2, 5 wins = 2 1/2, 6 wins = 3, 7 wins = 3 1/2; 8 saves = 4 places; 0.008 =1 place ERA; 0.0096 = 2 places WHIP

Into the final period:
Ks 22/12 for one point decline or advance
ERA .036= 2 points
WHIP 0.0147= 2 points
W 3= 2points
Saves: 6= 3 points

So, Asakusabashi will try for saves and hope competitor's ERA and WHIP decline. Five closers are started, including Farnsworth who hopefully returns strong into the pennant race from his injury. Also, Halladay, Vazquez, Sabathia and Garcia will go two-starts over the next week and one-half. They seem least at risk to lose an end of season start.

Hitting: BA HR RBI R SB
Pace 12 43 45 8
Starting Total 0.2700 233 812 854 147
4th 1st (+1/2) 2nd 1st 2nd (+1/2)
Week 20 0.3019 15 50 54 11
Total Week 20 0.2717 248 866 904 158
4th 1st 2nd 1st 2nd
Week 21 0.2904 15 49 52 5
Total Week 21 0.2726 263 915 956 163
4th, 1st, 1st (+1/2), 1st, 3rd (-1)
0.2730 12 38 40 12
Total Week 22 0.2726 275 953 996 175
4th, 1st, 2nd (-1/2), 1st, 2nd(+1)
Week 23 0.2633 8 32 38 8
Week 24 0.2857 12 34 48 10
Total 0.2727 295 1019 1082 193
4th, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 2nd

Three weeks ago:
0.0060 BA = 3 points, 3RBI=1 point and 8 SB=1 point.
Two weeks ago:
.0043 BA = 3 points, 1RBI=1/2 point, 15 SB=2 points

Now:
.0018 BA = 1 point
+6 HR
+10 SB/-9SB

A point in RBIs was lost and looks gone for good. Paul Goldschmit and Jesus Guzman were added for homeruns, where Asakusabashi needs to hold. The most likely point in play is batting average. I normally would not add a San Diego hitter, but he plays a series in Coors, and looked good batting clean-up against the Giants. Also, I like that Goldschmidt has nine home games in Arizona. I no longer view Moreland as a keeper. Mitch Moreland's 2011 stats reflect more of a James Loney type, without the stolen bases, so he is dropped.

For Ballywood, WHIP is the category most in play. A point in WHIP could be lost to second place, so it is important to not give up hits. Possibly, there might be a point available in saves.

Fantasy Baseball-- Week 23

2011-09-05T11:38:00.006-05:00

Asakusabashi advanced one point for the week and trails second by four points and leads third by five. Ballywood is in second by 1 1/2 points in a back and forth two way race.

One might expect five more starts after a Tuesday, but Asakusabashi had three, including a second CC Sabathia win. So, the advances in counting stats from Tuesday mostly did not hold. However, it was still a great pitching week. Perez had three saves. Feliz, Farnsworth and Cordero each threw a save. Jason Motte had a second save and seems to be the new Saint Louis closer, so it is nice to have him on the bench. There are three two-starts this next week-- Kuroda, Vazquez and Harden.

Pitching: K ERA WHIP W SV
Pace 45 ---- ----- 3.4 5
Starting Total 849 3.511 1.2687 65 84
Place 8th(-1), 7th(-1), 9th, 5th , 5th
Week 20 62 3.074 1.1287 5 5
Total Week 20 911 3.484 1.2599 70 89
8th, 7th, 9th, 5th, 5th
Week 21 52 4.365 1.2575 3 5
Total Week 21 963 3.527 1.2598 73 94
7th(+1), 6th (+1), 9th, 5th, 5th
Week 22 55 2.827 1.1937 5 6
7th, 6th , 9th, 4th(+1/2) , 5th

Two weeks ago:
5 wins=3 places. 11 saves = 3 places. 0.025 WHIP= 3 places. 28K=3 places. 0.02 ERA= 2 places or 0.17ERA= 4 places.

Last Week:
2 wins=2places, 7 wins=4 places. 8 saves=3 places. 28K= 3 points. 11 saves= 4 places. 0.030 WHIP=3 places. 0.16 ERA = 3 places.

This Week:
1 win=1 place, 2 wins = 1 1/2, 5 wins = 2 1/2, 6 wins = 3, 7 wins = 3 1/2; 8 saves = 4 places; 0.008 =1 place ERA; 0.0096 = 2 places WHIP

Hitting was solid. 12 SB was excellent-- Lawrie had three of them in addition to the standard three by Matt Kemp. Dee Gordon is back from injury, so he was added. Jed Lowrie injured his shoulder Saturday, so he was dropped. Jose Altuve was added for Eric Young, Jr. who did steal a base, but mostly sat on the bench. The bench is Shin-Soo Choo plus five pitchers, including R.A. Dickey and Aaron Harang, who line up as two-start pitchers for week 24.

Hitting: BA HR RBI R SB
Pace 12 43 45 8
Starting Total 0.2700 233 812 854 147
4th 1st (+1/2) 2nd 1st 2nd (+1/2)
Week 20 0.3019 15 50 54 11
Total Week 20 0.2717 248 866 904 158
4th 1st 2nd 1st 2nd
Week 21 0.2904 15 49 52 5
Total Week 21 0.2726 263 915 956 163
4th, 1st, 1st (+1/2), 1st, 3rd (-1)
0.2730 12 38 40 12
Total Week 22 0.2726 275 953 996 175
4th, 1st, 2nd (-1/2), 1st, 2nd(+1)

Last Week:
0.0060 BA = 3 points, 3RBI=1 point and 8 SB=1 point.
This Week:
.0043 BA = 3 points, 1RBI=1/2 point, 15 SB=2 points

With Felix Hernandez and Stephen Strasburg pitching Tuesday, a good week is expected.

Fantasy Baseball Week 22... A Big Day

2011-08-31T08:13:00.008-05:00

Yesterday, Tuesday, was a big day for Asakusabashi. Four starting pitchers went. The team had a chance to make progress, or to not. As it turns out, progress was made. The team trailed second place by 5 points on Monday morning, but now is in second place, 4 points ahead of third.

Here is what happened on Monday and Tuesday to cause the nine point swing:

Jose Reyes, in his second game back from leg issues stole a base. Monday, Brent Lawrie stole two bases and J.P. Arencibia even had an SB. Tuesday, Lawrie gets on track with a three run homer. Javier Vazquez and Roy Halladay are pitching. Sixth inning, Hunter Pence hits a homerun. Roy Halladay hits a three run single. Phillies are up 6-0. Halladay has allowed 2H and 2BB, 0ER, 9K. Lidge takes over in the eighth. Halladay is now 16-5.

Seventh inning, Queens, NY, the Marlins piece together five runs. Vazquez leaves after seven, 108 pitches, 3H, 1 BB, 0ER, 6K. Stanton adds a HR in the ninth to complete the "slam and legs". Both Halladay and Vazquez have won. (Their performance ranks 1,2 in CBS for the day.)

CC Sabathia is at Fenway Park. He is struggling, but piling up Ks. Sabathia goes 128 pitches in six innings, allowing 10 hits, 2 walks, but just 2 runs. Wade, Logan, Soriano and Rivera allow another 3 hits and 2 walks. The Yankees hold on 5-2. Sabathia wins.

The Rangers are up 2-0. Neftali Feliz allows a double and a walk in the ninth, but no further damage from the Rays. Rangers win. Feliz gets the save.

Kuroda is off to an excellent start. A grand slam in the second inning makes it 8-0 Dodgers. It is a shutout until the sixth inning, when a three run homer and solo homerun cut the lead in half. Kuroda allows 7 hits, 2 walks, 4 runs, and adds 3 Ks. Guerrier, Jansen and Guerra finish the game. Kuroda gets the fourth win for Asakusabashi on the night. Two points each are advanced in wins and in strikeouts. Another point was made Monday in SB. WHIP, ERA, AVG and RBI are other categories in play yesterday and over the next days. Yes, the categories are close.

Pitching: K ERA WHIP W SV
Pace 45 ---- ----- 3.4 5
Starting Total 849 3.511 1.2687 65 84
Place 8th(-1), 7th(-1), 9th, 5th , 5th
Week 20 62 3.074 1.1287 5 5
Total Week 20 911 3.484 1.2599 70 89
8th, 7th, 9th, 5th, 5th
Week 21 52 4.365 1.2575 3 5
Total Week 21 963 3.527 1.2598 73 94
7th(+1), 6th (+1), 9th, 5th, 5th
Today: 996 3.500 1.2567 77 96
5th(+2) 6th 9th 3rd(+2) 5th

Monday:
2 wins=2places, 7 wins=4 places. 8 saves=3 places. 28K= 3 points. 11 saves= 4 places. 0.030 WHIP=3 places. 0.16 ERA = 3 places.
Today:
4 wins=2places, 2 teams need one win to catch. 7K =one place, 37K= 2 places. 8 saves=3 places,11 saves= 4 places. 0.022 WHIP=3 places. 0.173 ERA = 3 places.

Hitting: BA HR RBI R SB
Pace 12 43 45 8
Starting Total 0.2700 233 812 854 147
4th 1st (+1/2) 2nd 1st 2nd (+1/2)
Week 20 0.3019 15 50 54 11
Total Week 20 0.2717 248 866 904 158
4th 1st 2nd 1st 2nd
Week 21 0.2904 15 49 52 5
Total Week 21 0.2726 263 915 956 163
4th, 1st, 1st (+1/2), 1st, 3rd (-1)
Today 0.2736 266 925 968 169
4th, 1st, 1st (tie), 1st, 2nd(+1)

Monday:
.0043 BA = 3 points, 1RBI=1/2 point, 15 SB=2 points
Today:
.0045 BA = 3 points, 1RBI=1/2 point, 9 SB=1 point

Fantasy Baseball-- Week 22

2011-08-29T11:07:00.005-05:00

Asakusabashi is solidly in third place, 5 points away from second or fourth place. Ballywood returns to first place.

Mice and men lay out their best plans, but Hurricane Irene changes them. The two start pitchers last week were Matt Cain (3.000 ERA,11K, 0.8000 WHIP), who was excellent despite no wins and Brandon Morrow (9.900, 10, 2.1000), who was terrible, but at least brought the Ks. Mike Minor (W, 5.400, 6, 1.2000) and Ricky Nolasco (5.400, 8, 1.5000) lost starts to Irene. Fortunately enough, Roy Halladay (benched) lost his start and becomes a two-starter this week. CC Sabathia (3.682, 7 K, 1.091) gets two starts this week, unless the Yankees have a six-man rotation. Kuroda and Nolasco also look to be two-time starters. Acquisition, Francisco Cordero (W, 2.250 ERA, 3K, 3SV, 0.7500), and fellow Ohio closer, Chris Perez (W, 0.000, 4K, 2SV, 1.3636), each won games, which is handy if the starters will not. Though the team ERA was not great, a point was made up. Also, a point was made up in Ks, where there might be two more points, with some two-start pitchers. Overall, pitching is hanging tough. New adds for next week are prospect, still awaiting call up, Matt Moore, and newly minted closer of the day, Jason Motte.

Pitching: K ERA WHIP W SV
Pace 45 ---- ----- 3.4 5
Starting Total 849 3.511 1.2687 65 84
Place 8th(-1), 7th(-1), 9th, 5th , 5th
Week 20 62 3.074 1.1287 5 5
Total Week 20 911 3.484 1.2599 70 89
8th, 7th, 9th, 5th, 5th
Week 21 52 4.365 1.2575 3 5
Total Week 21 963 3.527 1.2598 73 94
7th(+1), 6th (+1), 9th, 5th, 5th

Last Week:
5 wins=3 places. 11 saves = 3 places. 0.025 WHIP= 3 places. 28K=3 places. 0.02 ERA= 2 places or 0.17ERA= 4 places.

This Week:
2 wins=2places, 7 wins=4 places. 8 saves=3 places. 28K= 3 points. 11 saves= 4 places. 0.030 WHIP=3 places. 0.16 ERA = 3 places.

Corey Hart (0.5000, 3HR, 9R, 5RBI, 2SB) had the number two Week 21 in CBS. Matt Kemp (0.2963, 3, 8, 8, 1) is now at 30/30. Brandon Phillips (0.3846, 0, 5, 4, 1) and Brett Lawrie (0.3636, 2, 4, 4, 0) were solid. Pence (0.4375, 1, 5, 3, 0) did well in a hurricane shortened week. Choo (0.3636, 2, 2, 5, 0) had a two homer day, just after becoming a father, before hurting his trunk and will sit this week. Jose Reyes is back in the active roster. Eric Young is a PT risk, but I need the steals. Jason Heyward, also a PT risk, is generally good for a HR after a break, and the hurricane gave him a break.

Hitting: BA HR RBI R SB
Pace 12 43 45 8
Starting Total 0.2700 233 812 854 147
4th 1st (+1/2) 2nd 1st 2nd (+1/2)
Week 20 0.3019 15 50 54 11
Total Week 20 0.2717 248 866 904 158
4th 1st 2nd 1st 2nd
Week 21 0.2904 15 49 52 5
Total Week 21 0.2726 263 915 956 163
4th, 1st, 1st (+1/2), 1st, 3rd (-1)

Last Week:
0.0060 BA = 3 points, 3RBI=1 point and 8 SB=1 point.
This Week:
.0043 BA = 3 points, 1RBI=1/2 point, 15 SB=2 points

These 5.5 points represent first in all five hitting categories. Hanging on to hitting points will be hard enough. Getting to 60/60 hitting points would be unlikely. First place in steals is getting tougher, not easier.

Asakusabashi is cycling closers and RPs for hitters to maximize GP. Napoli (5R, 2HR, 6RBI, .304), Phillips and Lawrie were the top hitters of the week. There are not many points available, but the roster seems to have enough firepower to hang on.

Fantasy Baseball-- Week 21

2011-08-21T22:40:00.008-05:00

Ballywood at 93.5, gained 3.5 points and trails by one point in a two team race. Asakusabashi is in third place, gaining one point for the week.

Ballywood made a major trade-- CC Sabathia, Matt Cain, Shin-Soo Choo, Hunter Pence and Francisco Cordero for Curtis Granderson ($17), Brad Lidge ($2), Alexi Ogando ($1), and A-Rod. Asakusabashi needs to make some of its own luck in the pitching categories-- Cain and Sabathia can do this. Giving up Curtis Granderson was a major loss, though. His latest "slam and legs" (game with a homerun plus SB) was yesterday. A-Rod at this point will certainly hit clean up for the Yankees, but I do not trust his knees. My hope is that Choo and Pence can cover most of their HR, RBIs and SB. Given that they all play for contenders, they should not sit much down the stretch.

Four two-start pitchers went, including some risky plays like Francisco Liriano (2W, 3.462ERA, 10K, 1.2308 WHIP) who did not allow an ER at Yankee stadium. Toronto rookie, Henderson Alvarez (4.091, 6, 1.3636), had a win except for a fielding error. Alexi Ogando (W, 4.050, 7, 1.2750), pitched well enough for two wins. Roy Halladay (3.214, 19,1.1429) did well despite no decisions, getting 14K in a complete game, and leaving after five innings with the lead, due to a rain delay. One start pitcher, Brandon Morrow (W, 1.500 ERA, 12K, 0.8333 WHIP) had a better week than any of them, per the CBS weekly rank. He was active! The 62 Ks has to be a team high for the year for a seven day week.

Pitching: K ERA WHIP W SV
Pace 45 ---- ----- 3.4 5
Starting Total 849 3.511 1.2687 65 84
Place 8th(-1), 7th(-1), 9th, 5th , 5th
Week 20 62 3.074 1.1287 5 5
Total 911 3.484 1.2599 70 89
8th, 7th, 9th, 5th, 5th

Mitch Moreland (0.4583,3HR, 4R, 8RBI) had a 2HR, 5RBI game against Jake Peavy. Eric Young, Jr (0.4000, 4R, 2RBI, 5SB) stole three bases in two innings. Brandon Phillips (0.4231, HR, 4R, 6RBI, SB) at leadoff has been solid. Mike Stanton (0.2857, 4HR, 5R, 6RBI) is looking like a keeper. As with the pitching categories, every hitting category for the week was at or better than the established pace.

Hitting: BA HR RBI R SB
Pace 12 43 45 8
Starting Total 0.2700 233 812 854 147
4th 1at (+1/2) 2nd 1st 2nd (+1/2)
Week 20 0.3019 15 50 54 11
Total 0.2717 248 866 904 158
4th 1st 2nd 1st 2nd

Mike Minor was added for this week due to two start status. Matt Cain, Brandon Morrow and Ricky Nolasco also each start twice. Sabathia rather than Halladay has the ninth start, as Halladay is not scheduled until Sunday, and I would hate to not have a fifth pitcher due to a canceled or postponed game. Javier Vazquez was added for Week 22. Sabathia, Kuroda and Garcia will be the two-starters per the calendar. If this schedule remains, then Halladay becomes the ninth starter. This is go for broke time. 5 wins=3 places. 11 saves = 3 places. 0.025 WHIP= 3 places. 28K=3 places. 0.02 ERA= 2 places or 0.17ERA= 4 places. There are enough competitive points in pitching categories for first place. Second place, just two points away, is realistic, given the randomness of baseball, and because many of the points needed will come by outperforming trailers who have less incentive to gun for it. (This works against Asakusabashi in hitting categories, as it will be possible for other teams to make up points against the bottom of the league.) In hitting categories, 0.0060 BA = 3 points, 3RBI=1 point and 8 SB=1 point. These five points represent first in all five hitting categories. Hanging on to hitting points will be hard part enough. Getting to 60/60 hitting points would be unexpected.

Zimmerman (.500, 3HR), Napoli (.345, 2HR), Teixeira(.304, 2HR), Phillips(.423, HR, SB) and Kimbrel (3SV, 9K) were the top Ballywood players.

Fantasy Baseball-- Week 20

2011-08-15T12:29:00.007-05:00

Asakusabashi is now in third place, and with pitching and breaks gets back into second. Ballywood is in second place, strategically positioned to regain first, if I make sure players actually play.

Streaming two starter Tim Stauffer (4 K, 13 ER, 11.700 ERA, 1.600 WHIP) played bad teams and still could not get them out. Alexi Ogando (2.2 INN, 6 ER, 20.250 ERA, 3.750 WHIP) also played a bad team, but at least was pulled quickly. Halladay (W, 4 K, ER, 1.421 ERA, 1.737 WHIP) in one start , H. Kuroda (W, 10 K, 2.025 ERA, 1.200 WHIP)
in two starts and B. Morrow (3 K, 5.143 ERA, 1.143 WHIP) in one start helped. The closers-- Feliz, Perez, Farnsworth (2W, 4S)-- pitched a combined 9 inning no-hitter, allowing just two walks, bringing some redemption. Rain cost Halladay a start. This week brings four two start pitchers to compensate. Henderson Alvarez, TOR, is added rather than Aaron Harang, as adding Harang before LAST weeks deadline gave no priority.

Pitching: K ERA WHIP W SV
Pace 45 ---- ----- 3.4 5
Starting Total 816 3.470 1.2654 61 80
7th 6th(-1) 9th(-1) 5th 5th(-2)
Week 19 33 4.828 1.3510 4 4
Current Total 849 3.511 1.2687 65 84
Place 8th(-1), 7th(-1), 9th, 5th , 5th

Kemp (0.3846, 2HR, 7R, 5RBI, 3SB), Granderson (0.3000,5,7,8, 0), Lawrie (0.3000, HR,2,5, SB) and Fielder (0.3182, HR, 4, 4, 0) were top Asakusabashi hitters.

Hitting: BA HR RBI R SB
Pace 12 43 45 8
Starting Total 0.2710 218 771 813 141
4th 2nd(-1) 2nd 1st 3rd(-1)
Week 19 0.2479 15 41 41 6
Current Total 0.2700 233 812 854 147
4th 1at (+1/2) 2nd 1st 2nd (+1/2)

Why is Ballywood strategically positioned? First, there are extra position players to make up missed games and hopefully get first place back in hitting categories. This is possible since SP are reduced as IP is 64 above pace. Second, ERA and WHIP should advance with Hernandez, Pineda, D. Hudson and C. Carpenter as the lone starters. Also, K should remain in first place as K/9 leads the league. Bourn (4SB), Howard (.400, 2HR, 8RBI), Victorino (.417, 7R) and closers (6SV, 15 K) led Ballywood last week.

Fantasy Baseball-- Weeks 18 and 19

2011-08-08T15:27:00.009-05:00

As I awake from my vacation, I find Ballywood back in first place, after a break, at 92 points. Asakusabashi fell to 86 points and third place after an extended run in second place. Second place through fourth place is 87, 86 and 85 points.

The weekend was full of injuries-- Jose Reyes, Brandon Phillips, Corey Hart, Dee Gordon. This is a much better situation than a Monday full of injuries as the week still accumulated stats. Brett Lawrie is active now. I'm putting him at 3B replacing Eduardo Nunez, whose excellent run as A-Rod's replacement is soon coming to an end. I also add Eric Young, who seems to be the regular LF, and Jed Lowrie, off the DL. Both are are favorites and they will cover for Reyes and Phillips. (Dee Gordon seems likely to start tonight after a day off. Corey Hart seems probable for tomorrow.) Update: As Dee Gordon did not start, I benched him for Brandon Phillips, whose injury I saw live. Brandon Phillips stayed in the game after the injury and it did not appear that arms or legs were affected. He pinch hit a homerun and Dee Gordon batted twice, so maybe they were two good choices. Nonetheless, I dropped Gordon at 5:40 for Aaron Harang's two start week 20.

During my vacation week, I added two- starter Javier Vazquez for two-starter Rubby De la Rosa (W, 3.600 ERA, 11 K, 1.6000 WHIP). I streamed Vazquez (3.462, 8, 1.0769) this week for two-starter Tim Stauffer. Nolasco (2W, 2.189, 8, 1.4595) was a double winner in week 17. Brandon Morrow (W, 6.968, 16, 1.7419) had a challenging week 17. Jamie Garcia (4.500, 11, 1.9000) had a challenging week 18. Kuroda (W, 0.000,8, 0.8571) and Morrow (3.522, 6, 0.6522) were good week 18 one start pitchers and Halladay was good for a win (W, 5.143, 7, 1.2857). Halladay (W, 0.000, 5, 0.1429)won more impressively in week 17. Garcia (6.000, 3,1.6667) was less impressive. Closers have not been closing. Feliz has 2 saves , Perez one and Farnsworth one, over the last two weeks. Lidge also had a save, but not while active. Mujica was dropped as the trade deadline passed and Leo Nunez is still the Florida closer.

Pitching: K ERA WHIP W SV
16 Week Total 720 3.424 1.2619 53 76
7th (+1) 5th 8th (-1) 5th 3rd(-1)
Week 17 48 3.930 1.4430 5 2
Week 18 48 3.724 1.1552 3 2
Pace 45 ---- ----- 3.4 5
Total 816 3.470 1.2654 61 80
7th 6th(-1) 9th(-1) 5th 5th(-2)

Hitting kept up pace, even though two hitting points were lost. Matt Kemp (week 17: 0.4167, 2HR, 3R, 9RBI, SB and week 18: 0.3043,3R, 2RBI), Prince Fielder (week 17:0.4500, 2HR, 6R, 3RBI and week 18: 0.4545, 2HR, 9R, 9RBI), Corey Hart (week 17:0.3750, HR, 2R, 3RBI and week 18:0.3478, 2HR, 6R, 5RBI, SB) and Curtis Granderson (week 17:0.3333, HR 6R, 4RBI, SB and week 18: 0.3333, 6R, 8RBI, 3SB) top the leaderboard.

Hitting: BA HR RBI R SB
16 Week Total 0.2682 195 675 722 127
4th(-1) 1st(+1) 2nd 1st 2nd
Week 17 0.3092 12 51 42 4
Week 18 0.2774 11 45 49 10
Pace 12 43 45 8
Total 0.2710 218 771 813 141
4th 2nd(-1) 2nd 1st 3rd(-1)

Ballywood dropped some pitchers, including Liriano and Jordon Zimmermann-- who is reaching his own innings limit-- as the team is 80 IP above the innings limit pace. Lawrie, Lowrie and Eric Young are part of the expanded hitting rosters, which have some GP to be made up at most positions.

North to Alaska (with Milepost detail)

2011-08-04T12:41:00.011-05:00

I have been to 49 states, everywhere but Alaska. Jerome had planned to visit Alaska in the 1990's, but never had there been either. Monica, Jerome and I are excited about our upcoming adventure.

We get up early on Tuesday and take the Park and Fly to the airport. This involves parking in Ramp C, downtown Minneapolis, then taking the rail to the airport. It is fortunate that we allowed time, as Jerome did not appreciate the long walks that were included between ramp, station and check in.

Our flight path goes over Juneau and above the clouds. We view snowy Mt. McKinley out of the window, as it is also above the clouds. We imagine this is the best view we will get. The bay looks like it might have ice on it, too, but this is sand. We must be arriving at low tide.

We pick up brochures at the airport visitor center, then take a taxi to pick up the rental car, as there are high taxes for renting at the airport. We drive to Sarah Palin's favorite place, the Wasilla Walmart, to stock up on snacks and a $13 pair of binoculars. The Dog Musher's museum, our first Roadside America attraction turns out to be closed, so we continue toward Denali, stopping for ice cream and pictures along the way. Our Healy motel, which has a railcar theme, turns out to be well suited for us. Monica and I walk up the hill and find a golf course/country club with taxidermy on the wall. (We see a lot of moose heads on the trip.) We try out the fresh salmon.

There is no food served in Denali Park, so I bring a styrofoam cooler on our 6:15 Wednesday bus ride to Wonder Lake. Beth, the driver, tells us that wildlife sightings are hit-and-miss. It is a rainy day, so visibility may be limited. Within 15 minutes, we pull over for a moose on the road, then see three moose right there, including a mother and foal, before they scurry into the brush. About an hour later, we see a mother bear and cub on the side of the hill. We are to yell "stop" if anyone on the bus sees anything. I am the first to yell stop. It is a false alarm as I notice a brown-bear-colored-bush not far beyond our sighting of the actual bears. But, we do find more bears attacking berries. The bus stops for five bears on the trip. I see one or two more and some see three more. Monica is taking great pictures. I am happy to have binoculars. At Wonder Lake, loons serenade us in the sunshiney-rain, and we eat berries off the bush. I have difficulty spotting caribou at first, but we see a few herds of them. We also spot flocks of sheep. The second flock, I actually notice first. As our bus ride comes toward an end, at the same spot as before, we see the three moose a second time. I also notice them first, which makes me feel better about my false alarm. Then, we have a nice meal in Healy. I have meatloaf. Monica and Jerome have fish. We sleep before it is dark.

On Thursday, we have a long drive to Homer. Homer is not so far from Anchorage for birds, but as Alaska essentially has one road, it turns out to be a substantial distance. With the short summer nights, the sun wakes us early and we are always up around 6 am. So, we get an excellent start. Before noon, we are at Denali view and Monica is taking great pictures. It is rare to have a good view of Denali, as it is generally in the clouds. But, the sun is cooperating for us. At 1pm, we are in Anchorage, where we stop at the Lucky Wishbone. I order a "Mama chicken" and share most of my fries as the serving is large. There are photos of the owners on the wall, showing highlights of their fifty plus years of operation. George and Peggy Brown were national small business owners of the year. We see why as waitresses kiss the head of the elderly George Brown as he busses tables and fills glasses with ice. Peggy died in April per an article on the Internet-- http://articles.ktuu.com/2011-04-19/anchorage_29449447. We arrive in Homer at 7 pm, and confirm at the ferry office on Homer Spit. We have a picnic lunch in the car as Monica has had bad experiences with sea travel and wants something light. We souvenir shop. I park the car on the Spit. I should have dropped off Jerome and luggage at the ferry office instead of having everyone walk. Our ferry cabin is spacious, with two bunk beds, a sink, a bench, and a large window. We look at volcanoes, islands and birds on our overnight trek.

We arrive at Kodiak Island on Friday noon, where Mary, a tour operator meets us. I had planned to find a downtown hotel, but they seemed to be full. So, Mary sets us up some distance from the center of town in a vacation home owned by a man who gives fishing tours. Then, Mary drops us off back in town. We buy fresh sockeye salmon and smoked halibut, asparagus and potatoes. Kodiak Island was first settled by Russians, so we stop at the Baranov museum. There are nice visitor centers, as well. Our home-made meal is excellent. Then, Monica and I take a long walk across a bridge to the boat dock, where after some suspense, we find sea lions doing laps in the water. We also get a nice view of a camera-shy, cartoonish-colored Puffin. On a second trip to the grocery store, I find a Milepost Alaska travel guide-- http://themilepost.com/ , which gives detailed descriptions of every mile and every turnout (views, services) of every Alaska Road. Wonderful!!!

Mary meets us at 8 am Saturday for a bear tour. She tells us about the town and herself, then we drive the road south for more than an hour. We see salmon on some of the rivers, but no bears. Finally, at Olds River, we see trucks parked and a photographer shooting. A two year old cub pulls a filleted salmon out of the river. There are ten people watching from less than one hundred yards away, including us. Our tour ends at the Powder House restaurant, less than 1/2 mile from our vacation home. It is an authentic Japanese Restaurant, better and less expensive than any I found in Japan. Each of us orders a box lunch lunch special. This turns out to be Jerome's favorite restaurant of the trip. Mine, too. We nap and watch the water. The server at the restaurant turns out to live next to us, so we talk to him more about Kodiak Island and the sights. Whales swim by in the Spring. At 4:30, Mary picks us up and takes us downtown where we see the brewery and sample Sarah Pale Ale. We eat at Henry's then watch the water some more from a public gazebo. We get tired of that, then stop at the Best Western, where the elevator to the restaurant is out of commission. We call Mary and she drives us up the hill to the windmills where we find a panoramic view before meeting out boat at 10 pm. All of us are tired, so we sleep right away. It is a rockier trip than before, so Jerome feels sick during the night. Monica and I sleep well.

The boat docks at 10 am Sunday, then we revisit a gift shop where I buy a Homer, Alaska jacket. Then, we stop for a German Chocolate ice cream cone and internet service. We are going to go as far as we can today, with hopes of driving the Richardson Highway to Fairbanks with our remaining time. First, we want to see Exit Glacier. But, before that, we need lunch and we have already passed Soldotna and Sterling. The river view is filled with fisherman-- we learn later this is the final day of fishing season. A BBQ place is hopping, so we stop for some good food. A boy plays the house piano. He is exceptional. Then, what must be a cousin of Willie Murphy performs. Alaska is full of people who are larger than life. At 3:30, we find Exit Glacier. A Ranger walks with us halfway, and Monica and I walk the remaining 1/2 mile. Weirdly, flies are surrounding a couple from Montana. The travel guides say to bring layers, especially here, but for our whole trip, the weather has been warm. As I reach the glacier, I remove layers of fleece-wear that I could have left at home, as every day is in the 60's. We look for Beluga whales on our way north. Monica finds Bird Creek motel in the guide book, which turns out to be very nice. They even give us two breakfast items per person as we check in. The area reminds me of Pigeon Point, California, south of the bay.

I drive north Monday morning, with a short unplanned detour at Elmendorf Air Force base, as Anchorage has no bypass. Monica drives starting at Palmer and immediately spots a moose crossing the road. Then, we find Matanuska glacier, which is the largest glacier you can drive to. In Glennallen, we stop at the Caribou restaurant, with more heads mounted on the wall, and eat fried halibut. Milepost tells us about Sheep Mountain. We see our best view yet of Dall sheep just south of it. We stop and touch the Alaska pipeline at another Milepost recomendation. We look for Bison at another turnout, but they are not present today. At 5:30, we enter North Pole, AK, where Dot and her daughter tell us about Santa Claus' house and reindeer. Dot sometimes misspeaks (her daughter corrects her), but is filled with the spirit of Christmas. We do some North Pole shopping before driving to the Museum of the North on the Campus of UA- Fairbanks. The Room Where You Listen to Music is highly touted and thus a little disappointing, but this is an excellent museum with good art, nature and history displays. Blue Babe, a well preserved extinct steppe bison, is a world class display. It is late. We are tired. We have no reservations tonight. We stop at a Super 8 and eat Denny's take out.

Tuesday is our final full day. We drive south. We retrace the Denali Park gift shop. It is rainy and a little cooler. My layers might have come in handy had we taken the bus tour a second time. 100 miles further south at Mary's McKinley View restaurant, we eat lunch. Mary Carey lived there in a tent because she thought it had the best Denali view, then lobbied successfully for the highway. We find a museum with farm equipment just north of Wasilla, where I read wall displays about legendary pilots such as Noel Wein, who flew countless miles over a long life, and C.B. Eielson, who flew over the North Pole and over Antarctica during the same year in the 1920's, then died in 1929. Briefly, we stop at the Iditarod museum and at Mulcahy baseball stadium, where the deciding Mayors Cup game is rained out, so slices of pizza are given away. Royal Suites Travel Lodge gives us an inexpensive first floor suite, where we eat Japanese/Korean takeout and sleep comfortably.

Wednesday morning, I drop off Monica and Jerome at the airport and return the car. We put 2015 miles on the rental, most all of them with great views. Alaska, even the paved areas that we visit, is a wilderness park.

All of us thought Kodiak was a highlight, though it gets only 20000 to 30000 tourists per year. Mary was an excellent tour guide, though I would have reserved a downtown room and car had there been any available for a reasonable price on the internet. (Reasonable cars and lodging exist, but I was not persistent enough to find them.) I liked the ferry boat, though Monica and Jerome were apprehensive about it. One option would have been flying back from Homer to Anchorage, which is only a little more expensive than the ferry, but then we would have paid a drop off fee for the rental car. Ideally, I would visit Fairbanks and drive the Richardson Highway just after our Denali Park bus ride. This did not work logistically as the ferry to and from Homer is not available each day, and we did not need another day at Kodiak. It might have been possible to plan a better trip. To do so requires arranging the ferry trip prior to arranging the flights to and from Anchorage and prior to reserving the Denali Park bus ride. Though, we did a little back-tracking, I am not sure that any of these ideas would have made our trip any better. It seemed everything, weather included, worked out for us.

Monica's Photos

Fantasy Baseball-- Week 17

2011-07-25T08:02:00.005-05:00

Ballywood declined to 84 points, 6.5 points away from first place. Asakusabashi, also in second place is at 90.5 points, 8.5 points from first place.

Pitching was led by Alexi Ogando (W, 11 K,1.841 ERA, 1.091 WHIP), Roy Halladay (W, 9K, 3.750, 1.4167) and Brandon Morrow (W, 7K, 3.857, 1.4286)
Pitching: K ERA WHIP W SV
Week 14 Total 631 3.424 1.2519 47 71
Week 15 38 1.306 0.9194 3 4
Sub-Total 669 3.314 1.2346 50 75
Week 16 51 5.062 1.6687 3 1
Total 720 3.424 1.2619 53 76
7th (+1) 5th 8th (-1) 5th 3rd(-1)

Top hitters were Granderson (2HR,6, 6,4SB), Saltalamacchia (7-16, 0.438 BA, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 4 R), Reyes (10-30, 0.333 BA,HR, RBI, 8 R, SB) and Nunez (6-24, 0.250 BA,6 RBI, 3 R, 4 SB)
Hitting: BA HR RBI R SB
Week 14 Total 0.2721 172 603 647 117
Week 15 0.2037 9 30 29 0
Sub-Total 0.2696 181 633 676 117
Week 16 0.2475 14 42 46 10
Total 0.2682 195 675 722 127
4th(-1) 1st(+1) 2nd 1st 2nd

For Ballywood, Quentin (7/20, 2HR, 2R, 5RBI), Bourn (13/29,4R, 2SB), Zimmerman (7/26, 6R,HR ,2RBI,2SB) were top hitters. Kimbrel and Wilson combined for 6 saves, 0 er, and a combined 0.50 WHIP.

Fantasy Baseball-- Week 16

2011-07-18T08:11:00.006-05:00

Asakusabashi, the CBS team, flirted with first place again this week, then fell back into second place at 92.5. Ballywood, the Yahoo team, flirted with second place, then returned to first place.

Pitching gained a point a piece in Ks, ERA, WHIP and W. Following the All-Star break, there were only one-start pitchers. Morrow (W, 1.350, 6K, 0.9000) and Liriano (W, 1.286, 4K, 1.2857) plus Perkins (W, 0.00, 3K, 0.00) got wins. Nolasco (0.000, 7K, 1.1429) allowed nothing earned in a loss. Garcia (1.286, 6K, 0.8571) and Kuroda (4.500,7K,0.8333) were also also unlucky non-winners. There were more unearned runs allowed than earned runs allowed during this post-all star period, so that part was lucky. The relief corps picked up four saves-- Feliz, Farnsworth and Perez were not scored upon. It was a half-week of exceptional pitching. Mike Dunn, closer assuming a Leo Nunez trade, was added and Perkins dropped. Rubby De La Rosa looks to be a week 17 two-starter, so was added. Two-starters for 16 are Roy Halladay, Francisco Liriano, and Alexi Ogando.

Pitching: K ERA WHIP W SV
Week 14 Total 631 3.424 1.2519 47 71
Week 15 38 1.306 0.9194 3 4
Total 669 3.314 1.2346 50 75
8th(+1) 5th(+1) 7th(+1) 5th(+1) 2nd

The power stroke returned as HR, R, and RBI were above the strong established season pace. Kemp (0.3333, 2HR, 3R, 5RBI), Stanton (0.3125, 2HR, 4R, 4RBI) and Hart (0.2000, 2HR, 4R,3RBI) each had a two-homerun series. Prince Fielder (0.3636) was the leader in average, as season BA dipped below .270. Rafael Furcal, who went hitless, was dropped. I hope the trade rumors about him are true, as Dee Gordon is on the fantasy bench and no one stole a base this period.
Hitting: BA HR RBI R SB
Week 14 Total 0.2721 172 603 647 117
Week 15 0.2037 9 30 29 0
Total 0.2696 181 633 676 117
Place: 3rd 2nd 2nd 1st 2nd(-1)

Carlos Quentin (6/12, Hr, 3R, 4RBI), Dan Hudson (CG, W, 1er, 0.56 WHIP), and Francisco Liriano led Ballywood.

A New Plan for Our Neighborhhood-- What are the issues?

2011-07-11T17:43:00.006-05:00

In Union Park, there is a primarily residential area on both sides of the Health East campus north of I-94 and south of University Avenue. As Snelling Avenue and University Avenue are so close, cut-through traffic is a big issue. Residents complain about commercial tractor-trailors speeding down Fry Avenue and breaking off the rear-view mirrors of parked cars and endangering children. Road detours, bad weather, congestion and light rail exacerbate this problem.

Another traffic issue is Snelling Avenue near Midway Center. The accident rate is highest in the state, and seemingly a concern of no one. The road is not designed for the amount of traffic.

Business encroachment is a third concern. HealthEast purchased then bulldozed several houses to expand their parking lot. The houses near Spruce Tree parking ramp are at risk now.

There is not enough on-street parking to handle residents and visitors. The rail line and higher density development makes the situation worse for both residents and businesses. Is there a plan to deal with this issue?

Is the plan to turn the area next to the rail into a zone for non-profits? If so, do we pay attention to the record of the non-profits that want to locate or expand here? Are we set up to police their activity to make sure their clients are treated professionally? Do neighborhoods want to be located next to large non-profit institutions or would they prefer shopping, services and residential areas instead?

Is affordable housing an issue in Union Park or is Union Park north of I-94 one of the few already affordable areas in Saint Paul?

The 16 bus service runs every ten minutes. With the rail, bus frequency is reduced and half of the stops are eliminated. Transit access has always been a strength of this neighborhood. Will transit improve with light rail? This is not an empty question.

Vested political interests and well represented non-profit groups had more influence than nearby business owners and nearby residents when the Met Council did Central Corridor planning. The anti-rail sentiment of the Rondo neighborhood is not so different from the sentiment of many of those most affected in Union Park. A majority on the Union Park District Council have supported rail and transit oriented development, but we typically respect neighborhood concerns.

The loss of business on University Avenue is counter to everyone's interests. Most people did not anticipate the construction impact-- 30% seems like a lowball estimate. Will University Avenue become business friendly? Or, will mixed use development and transit oriented design requirements keep locally owned business away, particularly smaller businesses? Per the Russian Tea House, fees for streetscaping could put them out of business. What is being done to promote locally owned business?

Businesses such as the fabric store, pet shop and Cambodian Restaurant are missed. Whether local or non-local, will there continue to be grocery stores and other business here or will the migration to Roseville continue?

Our job as a District Council is to make sure that those most affected by the plans we develop are given opportunities to voice their concerns. This is a civics exercise that we are capable of doing well.

Fantasy Baseball-- Week15

2011-07-10T19:03:00.008-05:00

Asakusabashi rallied on Saturday and spent Sunday morning in first place, then receded back into second place, with 90 points. Ballywood, receded into second place, after finishing first in the weekly standings ever since May 23. Asakusabashi has more points than Ballywood for the first time since May 30.

Ricky Nolasco (W, 1.125 12K 1.00), Jamie Garcia (2W, 2.25, 9K, 1.17) and Brandon Morrow (W, 4.85, 13, 1.00) collected four wins in six starts. Roy Halladay (2.57, 7, 0.86) added a nice start. Francisco Liriano (10.38, 4, 2.31) pitched so poorly that Razzball officially threw in his towel. Closer for a week, David Hernandez (4SV, 0.000, 5, 0.30) was great. Perez and Feliz added two saves a piece. Rich Harden does not get a two-start week, so is dropped. Glen Perkins, who looks like the Twins closer, if only because Matt Capps can not complete innings and therefore can not close games, is added. Over-all, a nice pitching week-- all categories scored higher than a typical week. Additional strikeout points are just a few Ks away if the pace can be maintained.

Pitching: K ERA WHIP W SV
Week 13 SubTotal 576 3.455 1.2695 43 63
Place: 9th 7th 8th 6th(+2) 3rd
Week 14 55 3.02 1.04 4 8
Pace (Total/14) 45 ---- ----- 3.3 5
Week 14 Total 631 3.424 1.2519 47 71
9 6(+1) 8 6 2 (+1)

Hitting was better than week 13, but slower than pace for all categories except SB. Jose Reyes contributed zero as his Grade one hamstring injury transformed from a few days severity to a few weeks severity. Nunez of the Yankees will fill in for Reyes. A-Rod decided to get arthroscopic knee surgery, and will be out a month. Pedro Alvarez would be the fill-in, though he seems to be in the minors at the moment, so the team turns to All Star fill-in Scott Rolen. The best hitter of the week was Corey Hart (0.3103, 2HR, 5R, 4RBI, SB). Travis Hafner hit a grand slam. Matt Kemp (3R, 3RBI, 5SB) was the primary base stealer. As the competition bulks up, trading away hitting for starting pitching seems less of an option.

Hitting: BA HR RBI R SB

Week 13 Subtotal 0.2749 161 566 608 107
Place: 2nd (-1) 2nd (-1) 2nd 1st 1st
Week 14 .242 11 37 39 10
Pace (Total/14) ---- 13 43 46 8
Week 14 Total 0.2721 172 603 647 117
Place: 3 (-1) 2 2 1 1

Napoli (4R, 2HR, 8RBI, .316) had a big week and has gotten more starts lately for the Rangers. Zimmerman (4R, HR, 2RBI, SB,.391) and Andrus (7R, 2RBI, SB, .370) also had good weeks in a down week for hitting. Ballywood gets back into first place with more HR and RBI. Hernandez (1.80, 16K/15ip, .73) and Zimmermann (W, 2.92, 1.05, 11/12.1ip) were the top starters. Hudson and Liriano had down weeks. Kimbrel and Valverde contributed 4 saves each.

Fantasy Baseball-- Week 14

2011-07-03T18:00:00.007-05:00

I am jumping the gun, as there are still Sunday night games to play, but at this moment Asakusabashi is in second place with 89 points (no change) and Ballywood is in first place with 92.

Roy Halladay (CG, W, 3.00 ERA, 9K, 1.00 WHIP) won his second consecutive game. Kyle Farnsworth won a game and, after a drought, so did EVERY Asakusabashi active starter and bench starter. The rest of the active list: Liriano (W, 7K, 2.57, 0.86), Morrow (W, 10K, 1.28, 1.00), Kuroda (W, 4K, 0.00, 0.57) Garcia (W, 3K, 8.44, 2.07). The bench: Harden (W, 6K, 3.00, 0.67), Nolasco (W, 3K, 0.00, 0.78), Ogando (W, 8K, 2.70, 1.08). Based on a great week where the bench was stronger than the starters, everyone can be started with confidence. Feliz had a nice week with 2 saves, Farnsworth, 1 save and Perez one save. Wins outnumbered saves. The two-starters, to go with Halladay and Liriano, will be Morrow, Nolasco and Garcia. Can as many wins come out of eight starts as out of five? Uehara was dropped for Arizona's fill-in closer David Hernandez, so now there is a full contingent of active closers for the first time since Fuentes had the 9th, and Lidge could be close to returning.

Pitching: K ERA WHIP W SV
Week 12 Total: 535 3.522 1.2842 37 59
Week 13 : 41 2.60 1.09 6 4
TOTAL 576 3.455 1.2695 43 63
Place: 9th 7th 8th 6th(+2) 3rd
ROS ZIPS Projections (Thursday) 613 3.56 1.24 --- ---
Total EOY Proj 1165 3.54 1.26 --- ---

Asakusabashi had another strong week for stolen bases with 11. The demotion of Dee Gordon (4SB) seems to be imminent, so he gets benched. Jose Reyes (11-19, 4R, 2SB) before possibly hurting a hamstring, gets benched. Update: Just a Grade 1 hamstring strain, so he plays after all. Andres Torres (1 SB) turned into a bench player, so he gets dropped. It will be hard to continue the stolen base pace with Rafael Furcal, Daniel Murphy (dropped for Pedro Alvarez) and Travis Hafner in their places. And, it was an anemic week over-all. Though it appears the team may be able to keep up the pace, there is no hurry to trade for pitching.

Hitting: BA HR RBI R SB
Week 12 Total: 0.2774 154 543 575 96
Week 13: .233 7 23 33 11
TOTAL 0.2749 161 565 608 107
Place: 2nd (-1) 2nd (-1) 2nd 1st 1st
Total EOY ZIPS Proj: .273 310 1097 1163 207

Shane Victorino (.450, 6r, 1hr, 5rbi, 1sb) and Craig Kimbrel (9K, 4SV, 4ip, 2br) led Ballywood.

Fantasy Baseball-- Week 13

2011-06-27T08:41:00.004-05:00

Asakusabashi, with 89 points, has been stable at second place since the third week of the season. Ballywood, at 90 points, has been in first place in weekly standings since May 30.

The top performance of the week was a Felix Hernandez start-- W, 0er, 4br, 10K/8ip. An Erik Bedard start was almost as good-- 5br, 0er, 10K/6ip. Completing the Seattle shutout was Micheal Pineda-- 5br, 0er, 10K/7ip. So, Ballywood had good pitching even with an excellent Chris Carpenter start-- 6br, 1er, 7K/7ip invalid due to his benching. Liriano and Melancon threw bad weeks. Brian Wilson picked up three saves. Brandon Phillips was the top hitter in a week when hitting stats lost some ground.

For Asakusabashi, the strategy question is whether to replace Andres Torres-- 3/13, HR, R, 3RBI and/or Dee Gordon-- 1/18, SB, R, RBI last week and/or Brett Lawrie-- DL. Dee Gordon appears to be active for another week, as Furcal is still injured, though he will now bat ninth instead of leadoff. Dee is 2 for 6 in bunt hits, but not doing well at hitting fastballs. Another strong week for steals brought the team to first place in that category, and brings the team 59/60 total hitting points-- first in everything but RBI. Matt Kemp with 4 SB, Curtis Granderson with 2SB and Jose Reyes with 2SB led a week with 11 SB total. Gordon and Torres will stay active as steals is the most competitive category.

Kemp is the top hitter overall per CBS fantasy performance, Reyes ranks second, A-Gon (now gone) ranks third, Granderson seventh, Fielder eleventh. A-Rod ranks as the 20th hitting performer of the season, Phillips as 56th, Mike Stanton 70th, Mitch Moreland 90th. Matt Kemp (0.3158, 3HR, 3RBI), Brandon Phillips (0.4444,HR, 6RBI, 5 R), Jose Reyes (0.3448, 7R, 3RBI) A-Rod (0.4444, 2R, 8RBI), Prince Fielder (0.368, HR, 4RBI, 7R) and Mike Stanton (0.400, 2R, 3RBI, SB) led a solid hitting team for Week 12.

Hitting: BA HR RBI R SB
Week 12: 0.3019 8 39 52 11
Total: 0.2774 154 543 575 96
Place: 1st 1st 2nd 1st 1st
Second Place: 0.2765 141 569/488 542 94

Roy Halladay (W, 1.20 ERA, 9K, 0.9333 WHIP) gained the first win for Asakusabashi in two weeks with yesterday's performance. In his first outing of the week, he was lifted early for a pinch-hitter/pinch-out-maker. Brandon Morrow was solid (3.857 ERA, 9K, 0.8571 WHIP) and will be counted on more for the strikeouts. Jamie Garcia (1.286, 4, 1.2857) and Kuroda (3.600, 2, 0.8000) also looked good and had wins except for the rest of their team. Francisco Liriano (5er, 10br, 3.7ip, 3 K) broke a string of five solid outings at Milwaukee with the stinker of the week. Koji Uehara with 7Ks was nearly as helpful as the three closers (2S, 7Ks). Nolasco pitched okay on the bench. Ogando, also benched, pitched poorly and may be turning into a pumpkin. There are plenty of points to be made up in pitching, with each win being particularly valuable right now.

Pitching: K ERA WHIP W SV
Week 12: 41 3.484 1.1613 1 2
Total: 535 3.522 1.2842 37 59
Place: 9th 7th 8th 8th 3rd
5th Place: 564 3.306 1.2046 38 56

Brad Lidge has been sitting on the DL. Lidge is needed if Asakusabashi is not going to lose further ground in saves. Or, Uehara could displace Kevin Gregg and become a closer.

To make up K points, Halladay, Liriano and Morrow need innings. Getting K's will be tough, short-term, as there are no attractive two-starters this week. Sixth place in WHIP (1.254) is an attainable target, as fifth place looks distant right now. Rich Harden, if the stars align, is a two-starter in Week 14 coming off the DL. He could certainly help K's and ratios if he reverts to previous Oakland A form. Trading hitting for pitching obviously makes sense right now-- elite pitching could certainly help the team, and elite hitting is present in excess.

Michele Bachmann is not a liar

2011-06-25T17:32:00.007-05:00

Nate Silver, of the New York Times, calculates Mitt Romney has a 40% chance of nomination. The next tier is Tim Pawlenty (18%), Rick Perry (12.5%) and Michele Bachmann (12%).

Republicans don't like Mitt Romney for the Massachusetts health care system that is similar to the national plan due to go in effect. Minnesotans still have not figured out if Pawlenty stands for anything, and chameleons tend to be quickly exposed in the bright light of national press. So, these two do not seem like nominees. Why would Republicans get excited about either?

However, Perry and Bachmann, the more ideological choices, should be taken seriously. Perry, because the last popular governor of Texas served two terms as US president, nearly wrecking the country out of neglect, and Bachmann, because she represents Republican ideology better than anyone else.

Liberals hate Bachmann and uniformly call her a liar. But, labeling Bachmann is like calling the late Johnny Cochran a liar. Bachmann is making the best case she can for her donors and constituents, just as Cochran made the best case he could for his defendants, who paid him well. She is doing a job and getting her face on TV. Bachmann's constituents are happy to be represented and happy that a strong case is being made for them. Bachmann's opponents parse these comments to try to make them sound ridiculous, but they are carefully phrased, even when wrong. There is lots on youtube, and Bachmann says plenty of incredible things. I hear points of view-- not truth, not lies.

Sarah Palin is the best thing that happened to the Bachmann campaign, as she truly is clueless. Bachmann will be underestimated based on comparisons to Palin. Both are attractive woman and some will wrongly assume that the superficial similarity makes them similar candidates. Gender may work in Bachmann's favor, as Republicans who did not support Palin will be able to claim that they are not opposed to the idea of a female president.

This is not to say Bachmann will win the 2012 election. But, those who would label Bachmann a liar are not the people who will get Bachmann defeated. (Keith Olbermann-- this means you!)

Label her with the worst stereotypes of attorneys-- ambulance chaser, media hog, shark, swindler-- if you want to defeat this formidable candidate.

Fantasy Baseball-- Week 12

2011-06-20T10:06:00.008-05:00

Asakusabashi is in second place at 88.5, trailing by 11.5 points. Ballywood, at 96.5 points leads by 11. Ballywood points rank 3809 in Yahoo; I brag when the team makes the top 1000.

Jose Reyes, with 6SB, was the top performer for Asakusabashi. Kemp added 3 SB. 12 SB total was a strong performance for the team. Curtis Granderson (9-28,0.321 BA, HR,7 RBI,7 R) was solid all around. Following the 23 HR outburst the previous week, only 3HR were hit.

Kurodo (1.35 ERA, .90 WHIP, 12 K) led two start pitchers. Garcia (3.18, 1.50, 12) also pitched well. I watched potential wins disappear when the relievers came in. Nolasco (11.25, 2.63, 3) only managed 8ip in two starts, and will be benched until he shows a turn around, though at Seattle it is nonetheless tempting to start him. Ogando (9.45, 1.95, 4), who pitched at Yankee stadium was benched and will stay benched at home against the Mets. Halladay (5.14, .86, 8) and Liriano (3.46, 1.43, 8) were the one starters. They deserved wins too, but instead were victimized by cheap timely hits. Morrow (W, 0.00, 0.90, 6), who was benched, was the only rostered pitcher to win. If Morrow uncorks, pitching categories might finally turn around. 59Ks and 4 S were excellent, though with three two-starters, the week had more potential. This week, Halladay is the two start pitcher.

Travis Hafner was added, coming off an oblique injury, even though he won't be playing much in NL parks. Jed Lowrie (0-4, then DL) was dropped due to shoulder issues.

BA(1) HR(1) RBI(2) R(1) SB(5) ERA(7) K(8) W(6) S(2) WHIP(8)
Week 11 0.2310 3 25 41 12 4.602 59 0 4 1.31
Total 0.2755 146 504 523 85 3.525 494 36 57 1.29

King Felix (3.86, 1.43, 5) has yet to uncork for Ballywood. But five pitchers won: Bedard (W, 0.00, 0.43, 5K/7IP), D. Hudson (W, 1.00, .44, 5/9), Pineda (W, 1.5, 0.83, 5/6), Bumgarner (W, 3.00, 1.00, 6/6) and Zimmermann (W, 2.84, 1.58, 2/6+). The team is now 65 IP above pace, so while good K/9 ratios will keep the K points, the team may lose some ground in Ws later in the year. (Hitting games available are behind pace, especially at U, so carrying fewer pitchers and having extra roster flexibility may help hitting categories late in the year.) Victorino (.419, 2HR, 7RBI, 2SB, 6R), Andrus (.357, 5R, 2SB) and Howard (.348, 2HR, 5RBI, 4R) led Ballywood hitters. As with the CBS team, Ballywood dropped Lowrie for Hafner. Heyward and Victorino came off the DL. Napoli went to the DL. Posada (now sitting in NL parks), then Arencibia were added.

Pitching Stubbornness

2011-06-16T11:10:00.003-05:00

The fun part of fantasy baseball is identifying upside. The tedious part is making sure you have players that are in a good position to do well and actually play. This note is about the fun part.

Francisco Liriano (4.41 xFIP, .228 BABIP, 6.75 K/9) does not look like a good pitcher per most of the stats I follow. But, snow and hail and less than 50F temperatures explain most of this. So, I will stick with him even if ZIPS projects a 4.15 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and 8.57 K/9 the rest of the way.

Fernando Hernandez (3.07 xFIP, .292 BABIP, 8.72 K/9) has the peripherals that ZIPS loves. ZIPS suggests 2.85, 1.15, 8.81, so of course he starts for Yahoo.

What of my other Yahoo starters?

Player K/9, ERA, xFIP, BABIP, PERA, PWHIP, PK/9
Pineda 8.71, 2.72, 3.45, .256, 3.95, 1.29, 7.77
Carpenter 7.05, 4.47, 3.70, .324, 3.41, 1.19, 6.55
Bumgarner 6.81, 3.23, 3.46, .317, 3.39, 1.31, 6.12
Bedard 8.36, 3.47, 3.30, .288, 3.85, 1.30, 8.62
D. Hudson 7.92, 3.82, 3.39, .331, 3.36, 1.21, 7.82
Zimmermann 6.75, 3.10, 3.51, .279, 3.36, 1.21, 7.52

Daniel Hudson sticks out as having a high BABIP, an indicator of back luck. So, it is easy to see why his projection is optimistic. I am not sure why projections for Pineda and Bedard are so conservative. I guess Dan S. must expect a flame out before Pineda gets shut down and before Bedard returns to the DL. Conversely, what has Carpenter done this year to deserve such a positive projection?

Bottom line. Liriano and King Felix are the Yahoo aces and the rest of the pitchers are all very solid. If I have to pick a number three (and as the team is approaching an IP limit, durability is not a concern), I go with Bedard's 3.30 xFIP and high strikeout rate. Carpenter and Bumgarner may have some extra value as they pitch for good teams and therefore may win more, but these six pitchers are more or less inter-changeable.

That was so fun, I need check out the Asakusbashi starters. These are my aces:

Player K/9, ERA, xFIP, BABIP, PERA, PWHIP, PK/9
Halladay 9.13, 2.56, 2.31, .308, 2.82, 1.06, 8.06
Liriano 7.30, 4.67, 4.41, .228, 4.15, 1.39, 8.57

I am going to list the others based on which pitchers have had the least luck:

Player K/9, ERA, xFIP, BABIP, PERA, PWHIP, PK/9
Morrow 10.93, 5.63, 3.60, .358, 3.81, 1.35, 9.85
Jackson 7.31, 4.39, 3.54, .346, 4.38, 1.39, 7.15
Nolasco 7.35, 4.23, 4.23, .332, 3.26, 1.20, 8.28
Garcia 8.11, 3.18, 2.88, .309, 3.15, 1.25, 7.65
Kuroda 6.93, 3.31, 3.49, .298, 3.91, 1.23, 6.64
Ogando 6.61, 2.71, 3.70, .226, 3.06, 1.23, 8.32

Jamie Garcia, based on xFIP is the best pitcher of this group. Oddly, Ricky Nolasco, with the highest xFIP gets the lowest WHIP projection. Brandon Morrow is dominant at times, and given he has been quite unlucky, certainly he gets more opportunities. Likewise, Edwin Jackson alternates between dominant and dominated, and has been unlucky to date. With projected WHIPS of 1.23, Ogando and Kuroda are certainly worth hanging onto. Given the above, pitching actually seems solid, though the team could certainly use another ace in exchange for power.

Fantasy Baseball-- Week 11

2011-06-13T08:01:00.007-05:00

Both teams advanced to over 90 points this week. The graph indicates personal Week 10 bests in both leagues. Both are close races though. Ballywood, at 93.5, leads the league by a mere two points. Asakusabashi, at 90.5 points, trails by four.

Asakusabashi had a power explosion. Friday, six different players hit homeruns. Prince Fielder (10-20, 0.500 BA, 6 HR, 13 RBI, 7 R) on the week is the likely player of the month for June. Granderson, A-Rod and Stanton added 3 HR. Kemp hit 4 HR. 23 homeruns on the week is an unsustainable pace that might demoralize others in the league. 143 HR total this year, an average of 14.3 per week, is 23 HR ahead of second place. If power was not so fickle, I would be jumping at trade opportunities. (I might still jump, if offered aces.) Likewise, team batting average is .280 vs. second place of .269. Going into the season, power was expected, but not batting average. Being ahead in average is dumb luck that the team can not expect to sustain. Reyes at .346 and Kemp at .331 have certainly performed, so far. Given the above, it is not surprising that the team leads in RBI, by 10 and in R, by 26. In recent weeks, with the addition of Dee Gordon and Andres Torres, there is an attempt to steal more bases. Those two players stole 3 of the 5 SB for the team last week. The team is in sixth place, trailing first place by 11 SB. Jed Lowrie (wrist), Mitch Moreland (inter-league) and Dee Gordon (new to role) are risks to miss some playing this week, but I see no better options. This week, the lineup is a pat hand, with no adds.

Francisco Liriano had a huge two-start week (1 W, 0.69 ERA, 0.62 WHIP,16 K) with a fantasy perfect game through 7IP yesterday. (An error does not affect fantasy.) Roy Halladay (1W, 0 ER, 0.86 WHIP, 9K) was as advertised. Alexi Ogando (1, 1.17, 7 K, 1.04) was also outstanding. Farnsworth picked up three saves. One terrible Brandon Morrow game at Boston (9er, 13br, 4K, 4 1/3 ip) after a good performance at KC (0er, 5br, 5K, 6ip) kept the week from being remarkable instead of merely outstanding. Next week, I am too fearful to use Ogando at the Yankees despite his record and his two start week. Garcia, Kuroda and Nolasco are two-starters. Halladay and Liriano have one start each.

Ballywood pitched a huge number of innings and is now 60 IP above pace. With King Felix, Liriano, Pineda, Carpenter, Bedard, Bumgarner, J. Zimmermann and D. Hudson, 1400 IP will approach quickly. WHIP at 10th place is not competitive yet, but starting to edge the right way. With twice the pitchers required, the team trades if there is value in return and dumps if 4-8 hit the DL. Full throttle until about 1050 IP will open up roster space for position players and closers in the second half. Zimmermann (W,0.64,0.79,13K/14ip), D. Hudson (W, 1.38, 1.15, 14/13) and Bumgarner (W, 1.29, 1.14, 7/7) were almost equal to Liriano. Hernandez, Pineda and Carpenter had (for them) sub-par weeks. Bedard (3.60, 1.20, 6K/5ip) still seems dominate enough. Pagan was added for E. Young, who has not played much, in an attempt to improve BA. A newly hot Posada replaces Napoli, who goes to the DL. Ryan Zimmerman should come off the DL Tuesday. Quentin had another nice week with 3HR.

Fantasy Baseball-- Week 10

2011-06-06T08:47:00.007-05:00

Rankings remain stable. Ballywood gained 4 points to 92 and remains in first place. Ballywood may soar toward 120/120 points. Asakusabashi lost 0.5 points and remains in second place at 88.5 points.

Matt Kemp (9-22 .409 BA, 4 HR,13 RBI,6 R,1 SB), Andres Torres (9-31 .290 BA,1 HR, 8 RBI, 6 R, 1 SB) and J. P. Arrencibia (5-21 .238 BA, 2B, HR, 5 RBI, 4 R) hit grand slams toward big weeks. Stanton and Fielder both hit 2HR. Moreland hit 2HR plus a SB.Granderson had 2SB. A-Rod added both a HR and a SB. The weekly hitting stats were once again excellent.

Weekly pitching stats were also good in week 9. Garcia (8 Ks) and Ogando (6Ks) both won their game, each allowing 1er and 5br in 8ip. Halladay (3.86, 1.21) struck out 11 and won both games. Starters, Morrow (9Ks) and Minor did not contribute positively. Likewise, Nolasco and Kuroda had poor starts while benched. Feliz had 3 saves; Farnsworth 2 saves; Perez none. Uehara (a non-closer behind Kevin Gregg, the inferior pitcher) replaces Fuentes (Andrew Bailey took his role). Edwin Jackson replaces Mike Minor.

Liriano comes off the DL as a 2-start pitcher. Equally scary, Brandon Morrow has two starts. Ogando, Garcia and Halladay will be one start pitchers. Franklin Gutierrez, freshly off the DL (0-18 last week) only starts if I haven't heard word that Brett Lawrie, the phenom who bruised his hard just before he was to join the Blue Jays, will be active Tuesday. 4:00 pm-- Speedster, Dee Gordon, is activated, so I add him and drop Gutierrez.

BA(1) HR(1) RBI(2) R(1) SB(6) ERA(6) K(9) W(4) S(1) WHIP(9)
Week 9 0.2838 16 62 59 6 2.961 45 4 5 1.10
Total 0.2784 120 421 430 68 3.504 384 33 49 1.32

Ballywood pulled the trigger on a Felix Hernandez for Evan Longoria trade. With Ryan Zimmerman about ready to come off the DL, Evan not really performing anyway and with hitting capable of 60/60 points (if BA improves), I offered this trade after declining it a week earlier. Starting pitching has yet to click. WHIP at 1.29 is in tenth place. ERA at 3.64 is in eighth place. Both are categories where Felix should be able to contribute. The top players this week were Elvis Andrus (12/27, 7r, 1hr, 7 rbi, 4 sb) and Michael Bourn (.344, 7sb). Teixeira hit 3hr and Napoli hit 2hr. Bedard (3.37, 1.20) and Carpenter (2.57, 1.29) struck out 14 each in 27+ IP, but neither got a win. Wilson, Kimbrel and Valverde picked up 8 saves and 10K/9ip without allowing a run. Peavy was dropped upon injuring himself. Jordan Zimmerman replaces Mike Melancon. Brett Lawrie (another reason it felt safe to trade Longoria) replaces Dominic Brown. Eric Young, jr., was added a week ago.

Twins 2012

2011-06-02T11:18:00.011-05:00

It is time to write off the 2011 Minnesota Twins, who are clearly the worst team in baseball as they have the worst record, worst offense and worst defense. Perhaps Twins management knew this going in. The two top players-- Mauer and Morneau are recovering from medical issues more severe than most people understand. Joe Nathan is not quite back from injury.

Middle relief is what a team worries about last. So, it makes sense that the team would try pitchers like Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins in middle relief. Their odds of doing well were good, as Slowey was a proven starter and Perkins was serviceable. But, a team that thinks it is going to win does not let players like Guerrier, Neshek and Crain go at the same time.

Likewise, Nishioka may turn out to be a good middle infielder. But, a team that thinks it is going to win does not rely on Casilla and Tolbert. Plouffe and Hughes may actually be able to contribute offensively, but if the team does not trust them on defense, then letting go of both Hardy and Hudson indicates there was no plan to win going in.

Letting both back up catchers, Jose Morales and Wilson Ramos, go at the same team when Joe Mauer's health was not assured is another indicator that the team was writing off 2011.

Re-signing Jim Thome was a nice pr move, and I could see fans coming to games to watch him hit his 600th. But, this is the type of move that the Twins of the under-performing 1990's made when they signed Paul Molitor prior to his 3,000th hit. Despite Thome's excellent 2010, solid production and consistent playing time could not be expected from a hitter who turns 41 this season.

Liriano's struggles certainly hurt as the season started, and this should turn around as a no hitter is already under his belt. Carl Pavano is as unlucky this year as he was lucky last year, so he should also turn it around somewhat, hopefully as a number three. A new ace, Kyle Gibson, is supposed to be hitting the bigs.

Delmon Young may or may not have another big season in him-- I view him as a 1B/DH, similar to his older brother Dmitri. I'm not sure why we haven't seen him at first base. Morneau and Cuddyer must block him. Michael Cuddyer is a 32 year old over-achiever that the team likes to keep around, but his best days are behind him.

Perhaps, some of the risks taken in 2011 actually pan out with viable pieces at MI, MR, or elsewhere. But, it appears, despite the face that Twins management wears, 2011 is a lost cause and they knew that going in. A fully healthy Mauer, Morneau and Nathan change everything for 2012.

Fantasy Baseball-- Week 9

2011-05-30T11:08:00.008-05:00

Corey Hart hit 3 HR is one game. Carlos Quentin, ditto, the next day. Each had fine weeks that day. So, did both of the fantasy teams. After two weeks in second place, Ballywood returns to first place with 88 points (plus 5.5 points). Asakusabashi advanced to 89 points (plus 1.5 points) and remains in second place.

Jamie Garcia gave up 11 earned runs in 3 1/3 ip. Hiroki Kuroda gave up 5 er in 5 1/3. Both games were on Saturday. Fortunately, neither were two start pitchers and both were benched. Francisco Liriano was scratched due to back issues, so no stats for him though he was on the weekly roster. Roy Halladay (3.87, 6 Ks, 1.71) was merely adequate but becomes the lone two starter next week. Alexi Ogando (3.00 ERA, 10Ks, 1.07 WHIP, 1 W) mixed a great start-- a higher rated performance than Corey Hart's 3HR-- with a poor start and will start once. Nolasco (6.08, 10, 1.95) in two starts is benched this week. Morrow, Mike Minor (new) and Jamie Garcia will fill out the rotation.

Other adds are Franklin Gutierrez and minor league prospect Brett Lawrie. Lawrie should be a five category performer for the high scoring Blue Jays. Jason Heyward remains on the DL. Brian Fuentes seems like an obvious drop with Andrew Bailey active, however, Fuentes has saves the last two games.

Joses Reyes (0.5185, 0 hr, 8 r, 2 rbi, 2 sb) was huge though he mostly hit triples. Corey Hart (0.4000, 4, 5, 9, 1) missed days with the flu but had the big day. Curtis Granderson (0.4167, 0, 10, 3, 3) had a big week without homeruns. Mitch Moreland (0.4444, 1, 2, 3,0) seems to be Mr.Clutch-- why the sac bunt attempt? Matt Kemp (0.2857, 2, 4, 3, 1) sprayed all the categories. New guy, Andres Torres stole two bases. Twelve total stolen bases was the reason fantasy points for the week increased.

Week 8 0.3058 10hr 48r 47rbi 12sb 4.050 31k 2w 5s 1.4786
0.2777(1) 104(1) 371(2) 359(2) 62(3) 3.569(7) 339(9) 29(4) 44(1) 1.3460(10)

Ballywood has strong performances by Quentin, Tiexiera, Bourn and Napoli. Bedard picked up a solid win. Hudson and Melancon also got a win.

Fantasy Baseball-- Week 8

2011-05-23T08:49:00.012-05:00

Last week was calm. The rosters changed minimally. This week was a storm, with injuries, turmoil and trades. Both teams are in second place. The Yahoo team remained at 82.5 points and is 0.5 points back. Asakusabashi, the CBS team, advanced 4 points to 87.5.

Ballywood traded Roy Oswalt and Alexi Ogando for Evan Longoria. This made Adam Lind droppable, when he, Shane Victorino and Jason Heyward all went to the DL last week. The lineup stands at Napoli, Teixeira, Phillips, Andrus, Longoria, Quentin, Bourn, D. Brown, R. Howard, J. Lowrie with a DL of Zimmerman, Victorino and Heyward. Pineda (2W, 0er, 16K, .43 WHIP), Hudson (2W, 12K, 1.80, 1.20), Bumgarner (1W, 1.04, .92) and Liriano (1W, 12K, 2.08, 1.08) were strong last week. Jake Peavy and Eric Bedard were added based on dominating performances. Carpenter seems to be the poorest SP on the roster now. Kimbrel, Valverde, Wilson and Melancon are getting saves.

Asakusabashi traded Adrian Gonzalez, Clay Buchholz and Wilson Ramos for Roy Halladay, Prince Fielder and Hank Conger. Conger was dropped for Jared Saltalamaccia. With injuries to Brian Roberts and Jason Heyward, it is not yet clear how to fill the roster. Ramos had a huge day Friday, as he scored five runs. Saltalamacchia plays for the better team, and has started to hit homeruns, so I had considered adding him even before the trade. (Saltalamacchia was a target in the draft.) With their salaries at $19 and $6, giving up two Red Sox, Gonzalez and Buchholz, was giving up quite a lot. Roy Halladay might have been the only player strong enough for me to pull the trigger on this deal. Fielder should not be a huge downgrade from A-Gone, though Gonzalez has been nothing short of great lately. A-Rod, Stanton, Kemp and Granderson each added three HR last week, so the power department seems to be solid-- hitting stats last week were great.

Results from the five two start pitchers were mixed. Liriano was the best pitcher with one win and 13Ks. Garcia had 9Ks, good WHIP and good ERA, but no wins. Neither Kuroda nor Jackson helped the WHIP, but combined their ERA was neutral, both added a win, and combined they gave 23 Ks. Buchholz and Ogando did well on the bench-- good WHIP, good ERA. Nolasco did not contribute positively, but will be a two start pitcher this week. Ogando and de la Rosa will also provide two starts this week. Liriano and Halladay are the one start pitchers, and these two will likely provide no reason to be benched for the rest of the year. Edwin Jackson looks droppable at this point-- he goes to open up space to fill out the hitting roster if Brian Roberts goes to the bench.

Brian Roberts stole two bases before he went to the DL with a concussion after sliding head first into second base. I hope he is not done for the year ala Morneau last year. (As he might be done, I tried to get Furcal as a replacement.) Heyward contributed a mere SB for the week as he has shoulder problems that finally DL-d him.

Week 7 0.2894 16 50 43 8 3.240 56 3 5 1.5000
Total 0.2740 94 312 323 50 3.510 308 27 30 1.3298
Rank BA(1) HR(1) RBI(2) R(2) SB(6) ERA(6) K(9) W(2) S(1) WHIP(10)

Ballywood struggled to try to keep a full lineup. As Victorino, Heyward and eventually Zimmerman come off the bench, and make up for the lost games, Ballywood should regain first place in the offensive categories. The pitching has been great. It is just a matter of time before WHIP and ERA points accumulate.

Fantasy Baseball-- Week 7

2011-05-16T11:55:00.009-05:00

Asakusabashi declined one point to 83.5 and one place to third. Ballywood declined 3.5 points to 82.5 and one place to second. The strongest hitter of the week was Adrian Gonzalez with 5 HR. Garcia, Jackson and Kuroda each contributed a strong 7 IP and a win. Buchholz and Ogando won in strong performances on the bench. Phillips (10-24, 0.417 BA, 2B, HR, 8 RBI, 3 R) was strong for both teams. Of the five Ballywood pitchers contributing wins, only Daniel Hudson had a strong week as a starter. Kimbrel added a win, 9K and 2S in 4 IP. Valverde added 3S and 5K in 3IP.

On the negative side, Jason Heyward went 0-3 for the week due to shoulder issues. He was active for both teams. Adam Lind, who did not play at all, was benched all week for Ballywood. Carpenter won 1 of 2 games and added 9 Ks, but his 7.42 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in 13 1/3 IP hurt Ballywood. Liriano and Morrow gave up 12 ER in 11 1/3 IP for Asakusabashi. As partial redemption, Morrow won a game.

Asakausabashi added Julio Teheran, not for this week, but for next, dropping Derrek Lee. If he were to be a two-start pitcher in week 8, that would be ideal, though it is not likely given the schedule for the Braves. [Update: Teheran was dropped for Andres Torres, and Moreland benched, due to hamstring tightness and tough lefties.] The five projected two-start pitchers are Garcia, Jackson, Kuroda, Liriano and Nolasco. I am probably the last person to have not given up on Liriano. Ballywood did not add or drop during the week, though Ryan Dempster did become available for a moment.

Asakusabashi lags in Ks and SB points. The Ks should tick upward given the strength and depth of the pitchers. For SBs, the team seems to need one more burner. I can not believe the current pitchers will continue to struggle so mightily in ERA and WHIP for Ballywood; this should turn around as well.

Asakusabashi:
Week 6 0.2526 15 41 44 7 3.345 35 5 2 1.3274
YTD 0.271 BA(2) 78 HR(2) 273 R(3) 269 RBI(3) 42 SB(8) 3.568 ERA(6) 252 K(10) 24 W(2) 34 S(2) 1.294 WHIP(7)

Ballywood:

Fantsy Baseball-- Week 6

2011-05-09T07:38:00.004-05:00

The Asakusabashi Fishiokas, at 84.5 points for the third consecutive week, are still in second place. Ballywood, the Yahoo team, advances to 86 points, back to first place.

The most notable performances were on the bench-- Francisco Liriano's no hitter with 6 BBs and Jamie Garcia's 2 hitter with no walks. Nonetheless, both teams benefited from solid starting pitching. Madison Bumgarner was picked up for Yahoo and had 12Ks in 13IP. He allowed just one ER and 12br. Clay Buchholz had 2 wins for CBS, 8Ks, 1.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP. Nolasco had 13Ks and de la Rosa 11Ks in their two-start weeks. Jackson ended up with just one start (v. Liriano) and allowed 7br, 1r in 8IP. Jackson and Morrow are scheduled two start pitchers next week. Though the CBS bench was most impressive, all pitchers were impressive. Daniel Hudson also had a comeback week for Yahoo-- 6Ks, 6br, 0er, 7ip and a win. The overall number three ranked player of the week, and the top for Ballywood, was Brian Wilson-- 2W, 3S, 7K, 0er.

The top CBS hitters were Reyes (11-25, 0.440 BA, 5 RBI, 3 R, 2 SB), Adrian Gonzalez (9-28, 0.321 BA, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 7 R) and Granderson (7-24, 0.292 BA, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 8 R). The top Yahoo hitters were Lind (9/18,.500 BA, 4 R, 2 HR, 5 RBI), Victorino ( 8/24, .333, 3 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 2SB) and Teixeira (7/26,.269,5 R,2 HR,4 RBI).

The Yahoo team adds closers Melancon and Padilla. 3B is now filled by Lowrie, with Figgins dropped. There were no adds or drops for Asakusabashi. I would stream pitchers if there was a droppable player. The most droppable players are Derrek Lee (3HR for the week), Corey Hart (not yet untracked) and Brian Fuentes (2S, but Andrew Bailey nearly ready to take over). Mitch Moreland is becoming more firmly established as Nelson Cruz, yet another Ranger OF, is injured.

CBS Performance:
Week 5: 0.2280 12 43 42 6 2.618 44 8 3 1.1818
Total: 0.275 BA (1), 63 HR (2), 225 RBI(2), 232 R(3), 35 SB(8), 3.598 ERA (6), 217 K (10),32 S(2), 19W (5), 1.289 WHIP (8)

Yahoo Performance:

Fantasy Baseball-- Week 5

2011-05-02T09:10:00.009-05:00

Ballywood, the Yahoo team lost 3 points to 83. Asakusabashi, the CBS team, was stable at 84.5. Both teams are in second place. It is odd how closely the two teams have tracked as Asakusabashi has 23 players not on Ballywood. Common players and their results for the week are: Brandon Phillips(2hr,5r,7rbi,0sb,.375), Jason Heyward (2,4,3,0,.259), F. Liriano (3ip, 7er,10br, 4k), Jed Lowrie (4/21, 1r) and Alexi Ogando (6ip,2er,7br,7k).

The success of Asakusabashi this week comes from a full lineup with no injuries. Phillips ranked 42 and Ramos ranked 100 for the week. Fuentes, Perez and Uehara all contributed wins in relief; important since Nolasco had the only win by a starter. The 46 Ks, led by Garcia (12) and Nolasco (9) helped the Fishiokas in a category where they trail.

Week Ending BA HR R RBI SB ERA K S W WHIP
5/2 0.2650 11 37 38 5 5.000 46 2 4 1.4074
4/25 0.2888 14 48 51 3 3.857 30 4 4 1.6122
4/18 0.3184 12 36 40 8 5.684 30 7 3 1.5789
4/11 0.2727 6 42 27 10 2.061 37 11 2 0.9389
4/4 0.2993 8 26 27 3 2.368 30 0 3 0.9737

TOTAL .287(1) 51(2) 189(2) 183(3) 29(6) 3.84(7) 175(10) 24(3) 16(3) 1.32(8)

Buchholz, de la Rosa, Jackson (risky?) and Ogando line up as having 2-start weeks. Nolasco (v. Nats) gets the one start appearance as Liriano has been too shaky to trust thus far. Tampa Bay seems hot, otherwise Morrow would have a one start week. The add order for the week was Logan Morrison, Justin Smoak, Fernando Salas and Hung-Chi Kuo. The fourth choice, Kuo, ended up as the add. (Salas is the possible Cardinal closer.) Uehara was dropped. Based on Kuo's four runs allowed Sunday night, and on the lack of good options at SP, Asakusabashi turned around and dropped Kuo for Lidge who returns June or July.

Morrison was dropped at first news that his leg was in a cast, even though he was playing like an all-star, and seems quite likeable per his Twitter feed. Nonetheless, Derrek Lee, in the middle of the Orioles lineup, is the safer choice. Matthew Pouliot does not even have Morrison ranked in the top 250 at this point. Moreland, two catchers (Arencibia, W. Ramos) and a temporary closer (B. Fuentes) are also not ranked, though the rest of team is ranked. A-Rod (9), Kemp (13), A-Gon (15) and Reyes (22) are top-ranked players looking forward.

The entire Yahoo team is ranked. A first? Maybe not, but it is uncommon. Teixeira (20), Howard (28) and Phillips (40) lead the rankings. Bumgarner was added and Madson was dropped. Figgins was added for Cuddyer, though Lowrie is one start (or three appearances) from 3B eligibility. Figgins is dropped when that happens, opening up a slot to add back a closer. Lind (4,7,10,0,.429) Andrus (0,7,1,4,.333), Howard (3,4,9,0,.292), Wilson (3 saves), and Pineda (W, 9K, 2 er, 7br, 6 ip) were top weekly performers in addition to Phillips, though lefty-lefty benchings cost Ballywood the best day from both Lind and Andrus.

Fantasy Team April Review

2011-04-29T12:40:00.003-05:00

With one month almost down, it seems time to take a look at who is on the teams and who is available. Matthew Pouliot will rank the players, looking forward, this weekend. This review ranks the players looking back.

In both leagues, the question is pitching, as several starters rank in the lower echelon. Asakusabashi has a solid hitting lineup, with Mitch Moreland (who seems excellent) and Derrek Lee (picked up as an FA after a slow start) closest to being weak links. Bollywood is missing a solid third baseman with the injury to Zimmerman, but otherwise is solid.

Catchers:
Wilson Ramos (2,8,6,0,.375) ranks sixth at catcher per CBS and appears due for more starts, as Ivan Rodriguez would seem to be a tradeable commodity for the Nats. J. P. Arencibia (2,5, 8, 0,.246) ranks 18th. No one with more at bats than these two are ranked above them. Top free agents are players like Yorbit Torreabla and Hank Conger.
Mike Napoli (5,10,11,0, .262) ranks seventh in the Yahoo game. No free agents are ranked higher. Ramos, Torreabla and Posada are available.

First Base:
A-Gonzalez (1,11,15,1,.306) ranks 16th. Mitch Moreland (3,13,10,0,.279) ranks 22nd. Derrek Lee ranks poorly, though not so poorly as an Asakusabashi starter. Smoak, a free agent, ranks just above A-Gone, so far this year.
Howard (4,13,21,0,.293) ranks ninth at first base, Teixeira (6,16,16,0,.253) ranks 11th, Lind (4,13,29,1,.263) ranks 13th. Top free agents are Pena, Wallace and Smoak.

Middle Infield:
Reyes ranks 2, Phillips 5, Lowrie 9, Roberts 28. Darwin Barney and Jonathon Herrera rank above Roberts so far in 2011.
Phillips ranks as the number 5 2B and Lowrie ranks as number 10. Angel Sanchez (2B/SS), Cuddyer and Aviles (2B/SS) are top FA. Reyes is number 2 at SS, Lowrie 5 and Andrus 7.

Third Base:
Lowrie now has third base eligibility and ranks 5th, ahead of A-Rod, 7 for the CBS league.
Zimmerman (DL) ranks 44th. Cuddyer, Valencia, Blake and Figgins have filled in so far, as Lowrie still lacks eligibility in Yahoo. Hannahan (Cleveland) is the top FA in both leagues based on 2011 performance.

Outfield:
Kemp ranks 1, Granderson 18, Heyward 33, Moreland 42. Stanton 54. Corey Hart has just played a few games. Logan Morrison (DL) is the top FA.
Quentin ranks 10th, Victorino 13th. Bourn 25, Lind 28, Heyward 31. Johnny Damon is the top FA.

Pitching:
Ogando ranks 10 at SP, de la Rosa, ranks 13, Garcia ranks 20, Nolasco ranks 30, Kuroda ranks 36. Morrow (in two starts) ranks 104. Jackson, Buchholz and Liriano had poor starts.
Fuentes ranks 11th RP , Farnsworth ranks 16, Feliz ranks 28. Perez ranks 35. Uehara ranks 92.

Valverde ranks as 5th RP, Kimbrel 6, Boggs 36, Brian Wilson ranks 100 at RP.
Pineda ranks 6, Ogando 12, Oswalt 28, Carpenter 58 at SP. Hudson, Bumgarner (FA pickup) and Liriano have had poor starts.

The tough call is who, if any SP, should be dumped. Some writers are suggesting dropping Liriano, though I will give him a lot of slack given his history, and weather may be partly responsible for the poor start. He lost his first game indoors to the powerful Blue Jays and won at Baltimore on a nice day. His other starts were in 45 degree weather, 52 degree weather and most recently during light snowfall.

Fantasy Baseball, Week 4-- dreams and nightmares

2011-04-25T08:37:00.016-05:00

The CBS league and the Yahoo league tracked each other down five points for the week to 84.5 and 86, respectively. The Asakusabashi CBS team is now in second place while the Ballywood Yahoo team remains comfortably in first. It was a week of dreams and nightmares.

The Jed Lowrie (10/25,2hr, 7r, 7 rbi) add last week turned out to be prescient, though he sat on the Asakusabashi bench as a playing time risk. By mid-week, he had replaced Marco Scutaro as regular shortstop and by the end of the week he had CI and very nearly 3B eligibility. His Sunday afternoon bench day seemed like confirmation of his new role as a regular. As it turned out Valencia (hr, 6rbi), A-Rod (hr, 8rbi) off his injury and Mitch Moreland (.318, hr, 6rbi) all had good weeks. The choice of whom to bench was not critical one way or the other.

Granderson (3HR) and Kemp (2HR) continue very strong starts to the season, while Stanton (2HR) got started. Vin Scully described Kemp's game winning performances to me in real time. Hitting is 51/60 points.

Position eligibility is always a dream for fantasy players. I watch closely as Lowrie covered for a minor Youkilis injury. Mitch Moreland (.316, 2hr, 5r, 6rbi) moved to the outfield and gained eligibility there-- another dream come true. By the end of the week, Logan Morrison's injury and Corey Hart's DL status were covered and only a U player needed to fill out the hitter roster. Hart (one last bench week) should return mid-week. Derrek Lee was added as the U, not based on his performance, but rather the strong Baltimore hitters that surround him.

I was paying attention as nightmare scenarios happened as well. Edwin Jackson allowed 23 hits, 5 walks and 11 er over his two starts at Tampa Bay and Detroit. Watching 16 baserunners and 7er over 5 2/3 IP at Detroit was a nightmare scenario. I kept hoping Ozzie would take him out. Likewise, listening to Daniel Hudson give up 7 ER over 5 1/3 IP for the Yahoo team was painful, though he kept his WHIP under two for the day. I still remember a terrible outing in an otherwise good year (3.13 ERA) by Johan Santana. The CBS team never fully recovered from 9ER in 3IP on June 14, 2009 and stayed mired at less than 80 points for the rest of the year. Fortunately, Kuroda (1W, 11K, 2.77, 1.31) had a nice week. Ogando won his game, 1.00 WHIP, allowing one run. Liriano and Buchholz also won with nice ERAs, though poor WHIPs. Due to the saves categories, tie first, pitching is at the mid-point. Buchholz, Garcia, Liriano and Nolasco line up as 2-start pitchers this week, so Ks should improve from tenth place, and the other pitching categories should improve as well. Kuroda v. San Diego is the lone one start pitcher for the CBS team.

Oswalt has had a solid year. Pineda and Ogando contributed solid ratios and a win last week. Both have had great years and are turning into must start pitchers. Carpenter has provided everything but the wins. The closers have been getting saves. (Madson was just added for the injured Conteras.) Nonetheless, primarily due to Liriano and Hudson, the Yahoo team lags in most pitching categories:

How quickly things change. One year ago, this week, the top ranked player in Yahoo was Kendrys Morales. He hasn't played since May 29.

Fantasy Baseball-- Week 3

2011-04-18T08:04:00.016-05:00

Ballywood advanced to first place, 91 points, on the strength of 10Ks each by Chris Carpenter and Daniel Hudson. Michael Pineda added 5Ks in his win over Kansas City. The Beard allowed one baserunner and accumulated 4 saves and 5Ks. Elvis Andrus stole three bases. Hitting was unimpressive for the week, but still dominating overall. 57.5/60 in hitting, plus 23/24 in two pitching categories is enough to lead. W, ERA and WHIP lag. Mitchell Boggs replaces Sean Burnett in closer roulette.

Asakusabashi retains a small lead based largely on Matt Kemp's number 4 overall performance (.520, 5r, 2hr, 8 rbi,2sb). A-Rod actually won the weekly batting title, .546, though is missing games with back issues. Joses Reyes and Logan Morrison contributed to five categories apiece, while Kyle Farnsworth's 194/113 lifetime shutdown/meltdown ratio touched all five pitching categories. Jamie Garcia and Jorge de la Rosa won. Though pitching was mediocre, previous weeks carried over. Cumulative stats give 48.5 points to batting (lead in average, second in SB) and 42 points to pitching (tie, first in Saves; 3rd in WHIP).

Jed Lowrie was added based on his circa .900 OPS over the past half year. I figure Roberts or Reyes or Phillips will hit the DL, though consider Lowrie strong enough to start at 3B when he becomes eligible. Versatility makes Jed Lowrie strong at U. He is just now starting to take advantage of more playing time, as Scutaro is now on borrowed time. Justin Smoak, .421 for the week, was dropped for Lowrie primarily based on Safeco. (CI, Mitch Moreland's park is better. With Josh Hamilton out, I hope Mitch will miss fewer days.) C, Wilson Ramos bats fifth in the lineup when he plays, and thus replaced A.J. Pierzynski. (Though risks to not have regular playing time, the larger risk is not getting these two if Lowrie and Ramos are not added now.)

It is almost tempting to speculate on playing time and start Lowrie, who bats sixth this morning. Lowrie, a switch hitter, is stronger against lefties over his career and oddly, Scutaro, a right handed batter has a poorer career average versus lefties. Boston faces three straight left-handers and plays seven games this week. But, Mitch Moreland who plays at home can not be benched for Lowrie on the road. Meanwhile, Valencia has no risk of being benched. A-Rod is questionable for Tuesday, but is not on the DL and his MRI is clean, so he has to start, even if he is to miss a game or two. Two start pitchers this week are Liriano, Jackson and Kuroda. Buchholz @ Oakland and Ogando v. Kansas City fill out the rotation.

Monday Update: Lowrie went 4-5 with a homerun, 2 runs and 4 rbis. Moreland homered. Valencia went 2-4, had two runs and an rbi. Phillips spent another day on the bench. Phillips should not be benched, though Lowrie is eligible at 2B. All three of the options for CI plus U are off to good starts.

Both teams share Brandon Phillips (.354, 13 r), Jason Heyward (.234, 4 hr, batted second yesterday), Francisco Liriano (9.42 ERA), Alexi Ogando (.72 WHIP) and Danny Valencia (merely a temp, as Ryan Zimmerman is on the DL and Corey Hart debuts in a week or two).

Fantasy Baseball Week 2

2011-04-11T07:55:00.008-05:00

The Yahoo team advances to 78 points (second place) on strong performances by Shane Victorino (13/28, 8r, 1hr, 5rbi, 2sb, #1 in the Yahoo game) and Brandon Phillips. Five closers-- Conteras, Burnett, Kimbrel, Valverde and Lyon gathered 7 saves without an earned run. The Beard gave up five earned runs without a save. Ballyhood still dominates hitting categories and still lags in the pitching categories, except saves.

The Asakusabashi Fishiokas lead the CBS league with 95 points. Pitching categories have 53/60 points due to Edwin Jackson's 13 K, 1 r performance and Jamie Garcia's 9K, 1 r performance. The closers-- Perez, Feliz, Farnsworth and Fuentes gathered 11 saves on the week without allowing a run. Matt Kemp's 5 SB helps Fishi to 11/12 in that category. Logan Morrison, off to a strong start, replaces Manny Ramirez, retired, in next week's lineup. Mike Stanton, who hurt himself in game one, should be more productive as well. Alexi Ogando replaces Manny on the roster. Though a two start pitcher, Ogando is benched against the Yankees.

Fantasy Baseball Week 1

2011-04-04T10:07:00.009-05:00

For the last ten years, I have kept a daily plot of the performance of my fantasy teams. But, I think weekly updates will be enough going forward. Both teams started well. Liriano has a tough start of the season. For fluky league reasons, this punishes the Yahoo team, but not the CBS team which gets de la Rosa's no run outing instead.

Due to Teixeira, Howard, Quentin, Lind and Napoli, hitting for the Yahoo team is dominating, though total results are middling:

Add of the day: Sean Burnett for Brian Fuentes, who has already blown a save, goes to the Toronto homer dome next, and loses the closer job to Andrew Bailey when Bailey returns from his injury time out.

Asakusabashi Fishiokas-- CBS Money League

2011-03-31T23:46:00.016-05:00

What Went Right?:
Punting catchers worked out well, as there seem to be about 24 good ones. Arencibia and Pierzynski were the last catchers on my cheat sheet and very nearly the final two $1 picks of the draft.

Starting closers went from $7 (Kevin Gregg) to $24 (Mariano Rivera), except, Kyle Farnsworth was available at $4. Brian Fuentes will close at the start of the season and was available for $4. Koji Uehara will likely close and was also available. Having two protected closers worked out well.

What Went Wrong?:
I would have preferred Shaun Marcum at $3 to Ricky Nolasco at $3, but had already filled the SP slots. I would have preferred Michael Pineda or Erik Bedard to Edwin Jackson at $4, but was saving the spot for a higher ranked pitcher (Latos, Haren or better). Nolasco and Jackson came cheap and could work out fine, but were definitely not targets.

I start with seven protections:
1B: A. Gonzalez, $19
OF: J. Heyward, $6
SP: Liriano, $18
SP: Buchholz, $6
SP: Morrow, $6
RP: Feliz: $11
RP: C. Perez: $9

There are five roster spots where I would like to spend about $30 each. These are at 2B, 3B, SS, OF2 and SP4. I succeed except that I am unable to draft a top starting pitcher, all of whom go over budget:
SS: Reyes, $28 (H. Ramirez went for $48.)
3B: A. Rodriguez, $31
OF2: M. Kemp, $31
2B: Phillips, $22 (under budget)

Rotoworld has Curtis Granderson at $23, so I jump on him.
OF3: Granderson, $17

Once I take Granderson, I have $56 for my last ten picks. I spend a big chunk of it on the player whom I believe will lead the league in homeruns:
OF4: Stanton:$21

So, the outfield is stacked at this point.

Here is the most interesting part of the draft, the bargains:
OF: C. Hart, $6 (out until mid-April, but rated at $19)
MI/2B: B. Roberts, $7, rated at $18
SP: R. Nolasco, $3, rated at $14
RP: Farnsworth, $4
SP: E. Jackson, $4, with upside, but descending per Sporting News
RP: Fuentes, $3

I tried for Saltalamacchia, but end up saving my final two $1 picks for catcher. My final picks are:
OF/U: M. Ramirez, $1
CI: M. Moreland, $2
C: J. Arencibia, $1
C: A. J. Pierzynski, $1

I am happy Arencibia was still available, since I wanted a catcher whose name ended with "ia". Manny seemed to be a huge bargain as Rotoworld listed him at $16 and Sporting News listed him at $15, though with a bust alert as he misses games and is not reliable. But, everyone knows Manny is not reliable. It is his brand. Manny and A.J. are her favorite players, so my wife is happy, too.

We draft six additional players. Due to injuries, Garcia will start in place of Morrow and Smoak will start in place of Hart. I also pick up Koji Uehara, Jorge de la Rosa, Hiroki Kuroda and Logan Morrison, all of whom begin on the bench.

It was a good draft for hitters. But, I missed on my pitching targets. A quick check in the Razzball War Room confirms the obvious.

Hitting rates highly, and I am not even worried about SBs as there is always a burner on the waiver wire. 86 infield SBs and 66 outfield SBs seems competitive enough. If/when Roberts or Phillips go down with an injury, there is probably a speedier 2B replacement.

R HR RBI SB AVG
73 18 70 13 0.271 Target/Hitter
78 22 81 10 0.274 Razzball Projection/Hitter

Pitching needs improvement, though saves will in fact not be an issue,with four current closers. K's might also be okay. The question will be WHIP and ERA of the starters. (That was the question last year, even with Felix Hernandez in the rotation.)
ERA WHIP W S K
3.56 1.23 10 14 141 Target/Pitcher
3.72 1.25 8 8 128 Projection/Pitcher

Complete Projections:
Rank Name Sal Team POS 12 AB R HR RBI SB AVG

11 Gonzalez, Adrian $19 BOS 1B 586 100 37 110 0 0.280
29 Phillips, Brandon $22 CIN 2B 644 85 20 70 17 0.270
26 Reyes, Jose $28 NYN SS 610 110 12 60 40 0.290
17 Rodriguez, Alex $31 NYA 3B 524 90 32 110 7 0.280
114 Roberts, Brian $7 BAL MI 558 80 7 45 22 0.285
263 Smoak, Justin $0 SEA CI 519 75 22 90 0 0.275
260 Arencibia, J.P. $1 TOR C 617 40 15 55 0 0.240
Pierzynski, A.J. $1 CHA C 498 50 12 55 0 0.275
14 Kemp, Matt $31 LAD OF 620 100 30 105 22 0.285
23 Heyward, Jason $6 ATL OF 567 100 25 105 12 0.285
87 Stanton, Mike $21 FLA OF 586 70 32 80 7 0.250
88 Granderson, Curtis $17 NYA OF 534 70 25 80 15 0.260
99 Hart, Cory $6 MIL INJ 549 70 21 80 10 0.260
120 Ramirez, Manny $1 TB OF 414 75 22 85 0 0.300
185 Morrison, Logan $0 FLA BN 522 65 18 80 5 0.290
Moreland, Mitch $2 TEX UT 456 75 19 83 4 0.276

Rank Name Salary Team POS IP ERA WHIP W S K
51 Liriano, Francisco $18 MIN SP 200 3.15 1.18 15 0 220
126 Buchholz, Clay $6 BOS SP 192 3.75 1.25 12 0 140
156 Kuroda, Hiroki $0 LAD SP 180 3.45 1.18 12 0 140
169 Morrow, Brandon $6 TOR SP 175 3.80 1.38 12 0 195
170 Jackson, Edwin $3 CHA SP 214 3.80 1.30 13 0 190
173 De La Rosa, Jorge $0 COL SP 175 3.80 1.30 11 0 175
183 Nolasco, Ricky $3 FLA SP 191 4.35 1.25 12 0 170
240 Garcia, Jaime $0 STL SP 174 4.15 1.35 9 0 130

71 Feliz,Neftali $11 TEX CL 84 2.75 1.00 5 40 90
174 Perez, Chris $9 CLE CL 65 3.10 1.16 1 30 70
226 Farnsworth, Kyle $4 TB CL 61 4.60 1.35 4 20 55
300 Fuentes, Brian $4 OAK CL 50 3.65 1.18 2 10 45
Uehara, Koji $0 BAL BN 65 3.65 1.18 2 7 50

This draft was better than average, certainly better than last year, but not great like the Yahoo draft. (I feel like the Yahoo team might just run away from the rest of the league.) Given the makeup of the Asakusabashi Nishioka's, streaming two start pitchers based on good match ups will be key.

Opening Day Rookies

2011-03-31T10:39:00.003-05:00

How I love to add the high upside rookie to my team!

Brandon Belt made the opening day roster for the Giants. With Brian Wilson on the DL there is a roster spot for him versus fellow lefty Clayton Kershaw today. He batted .352 last year in the minors, with 112 rbis. There is no limit to how good he might be.

Michael Pineda is the fifth starter for Seattle. At 6-5, 250+, he must be a dominating presence. 154 K/139 IP in the minors last year and a 97 mph fastball tends to translate to the majors, especially as he as exhibited good strike zone control. This guy has the chance to perhaps dominate from the outset like Lincecum and Gallardo did as rookies. Dropped: Fernando Rodney (as other closers are available).

Also dropped: Frank Francisco (DL), replaced by temporary closer Brian Fuentes.

Tonight, live and in person, my CBS League draft!

Ballywood III: A second trade

2011-02-22T11:01:00.004-06:00

Ballywood opened some roster space with the following trade: Kevin Youkilis, Chris Perez and Phil Hughes for Mark Teixeira, R.A. Dickey (dropped for lack of Ks) and A.J. Burnett (dropped for poor ratios).

The systems I follow have Teixeira at about $10 higher than Youkilis. It is tempting to keep Youkilis as a backup at 3B, and of course of possible that Youk will have the same season as Teixiera. The rap on Teixiera is that his Aprils are always terrible, but as he is swinging a bat instead of lifting weights this Spring, maybe he can break out of the pattern.

I regard Perez and Hughes highly, but with six more closers on the roster and upside on the board, I choose to go with the upside. I wanted some roster space.

Erik Bedard may or may not be recovered, but is throwing. His history is as a top pitcher, when healthy. I also picked up Bryce Harper, the wunderkind, in the off-chance that his C-OF eligibility is MLB-ready at age 18. (I think he is supposed to go on the Hall of Fame ballot next year.)

Ballywood II: A Trade

2011-02-16T11:28:00.003-06:00

I like to make at least one trade early on. The strategic reason is that I want to receive trade offers and how better to encourage them than to accept a trade? As a bonus reason, Liriano and Heyward rank highly as my personal fanboy favorites and I got them.

According to Yahoo, I did not win this trade. According to Razzball, I did. Here is why.

I believe Francisco Liriano and Jayson Heyward will have better roto numbers in 2011 than in 2010. Liriano gave up a very high batting average on balls in play indicating poor luck. With average luck and the same performance, Liriano's stats will look better. Heyward was a rookie in 2010 and will be one year better. Razzball aggressively projects Liriano and Heyward. Yahoo, with their past year actual rankings easily accessible in their trade software dialog box, tends to highlight actual past roto performance over projections and potential.

The players I gave up were Adam Dunn, whose average concerned me, and Cole Hamels, whose park concerned me. (A nice thing about drafting extra from a shallow position like first base is that everyone wants your players.) Dunn and Hamels are quite comparable if not better than the players I received. I am not saying I won this trade. But, it made me happy, and maybe I will be offered future trades to help my team.

Ballywood

2011-02-11T15:34:00.010-06:00

Yahoo started auction leagues for 2011 and I got in on the first day. I was able to populate my draft queue starting at 8:30, a half hour early.

My 2011 Bill James handbook arrived Wednesday November 3. I am an off-season fan of Rotoworld, where I subscribe to their on-line draft guide. I read the Sporting News guide looking for sleepers, and am involved in a CBS keeper league and their site too.

MLB Trade Rumors and especially Razzball have been helpful this year. Razzball rankings can be very different from Rotoworld rankings. (Rotoworld under-rates power. Razzball under-rates AVG.)

Strategy depends greatly on the precise league settings. League settings for my draft today were one catcher, three outfielders, two utility slots, 2SP, 2RP, 4P, 5 bench and one DL. There is one of each infield position. Last year, they added a utility and extra pitcher slot and raised the IP limit from 1250 IP to 1400 IP. Otherwise, these are the same Yahoo league settings I have played since I drafted Albert Pujols as rookie. As this is now an auction league, the standard $260 limit is used. Assuming you are in a similar roto league, here are the keys to a successful draft:
1) Don't spend it all in one place. Forget stars and scrubs; this is built in to the Yahoo rankings. Ordinarily, drafting a few top dollar players and filling out a lineup with leftovers is a viable strategy, but Yahoo labels the $40 players as $50 players. So, if you try to draft Albert, Hanley, Ryan and Robinson then you are out of money. People seem willing to pay full list price whether it is correct or too high. If you can obtain Albert, Hanley, Ryan OR Robinson for $52 then fine. Money Where My Mouth is: my most expensive players were $42,$41,$34 and $25. Update: There was a team in my league that went stars and scrubs, and by getting strength at 1B and 3B didn't do too badly. They certainly have trade bait if they want more balance: Black Knight
2) Spend on corner infield. There are a dozen respectable players for 1B and maybe six or seven for 3B. You need a good player for each and if the price is right you need two of each, and that way the utility slots are covered. I put my money where my mouth is. My four most expensive players are Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Howard, Kevin Youkilis and Adam Dunn.
3) Don't spend on outfield. You have three slots to fill, but there will always be three good choices on the waiver wire. I would love to have Jay Bruce and both Uptons on my team and if their price were $20 or so I might. I would also get Ryan Braun or Carl Crawford if they were going for $40. It is also tempting to spend $26 on Andrew McCutchen, but Hunter Pence went for $17 and he was next in line on the Razzball cheat. Some new version of Drew Stubbs will be free on the waiver wire. MWMMI: my OFers were obtained for $9,$4,$4 and $2.
4)You only need four or five starting pitchers at any given time and this is the era of the pitcher, so be selective. Innings eaters need not apply for leagues with an IP limit. I bid $17 on Liriano and Gallardo. Someone else bid $18. Frankly, I would prefer to have Liriano or Gallardo on my team. Instead, I ended up with Hamels, Oswalt, Carpenter, Hughes and Hudson for $14, $11,$10, $6 and $1. (I got Dan Hudson, but Tim was also $1.) This combines to solid WHIP and Ks. They even play on teams that might win some games. The bargains are out there. Hellickson went for $3. Jaime Garcia went for $1.
5) Load up on closers. First, you might as well win the saves category. Second, most closers will give solid K/IP and low ratios. Third, they can be traded. I love players like Chris Sale and Aroldis Chapman and I bet both close this year, but I found Brian Wilson for $9 and five other closers who appear to have jobs for $5, $3, $2, $1, $1. One of them is Fernando Rodney, who had terrible ratios last year, but Octavio Dotel had terrible ratios the year before and it didn't stop him from putting up numbers. You are right, I should have got Chapman (and would have, but Yahoo confused me by suggesting I had two more picks when I only had one. Five closers this time of year would have been plenty.) Note: if you violate suggestion 1, all of your closers are coming off the waiver wire. Not the worst strategy, but I view the list price for closers this year as cheap.
6) Wait out the catcher position. There are twelve solid catchers. You might as well spend $1. MWMMI: I spent $4.
7) Let players come to you. Item 4 was for pitchers. But, there are Karma checks elsewhere, too. Will Brandon Phillips offer himself for $23 after Ian Kinsler went for $29 and Dustin Pedroia went for $33? Might happen. No one wants two at 2B in this format of Yahoo league.
8) Good Teams Punt on Fourth Down. So what do you do when your Karma is bad or you you overspent and everyone is bidding $1 more than you can afford? Punt! J. P. Arenciba might be the best catcher out there. Get him for $1 if your favorite is gone. Second base? Too many sleepers to count. Shortstop? Fewer sleepers, but someone has to play the position for the Red Sox and doesn't Tampa Bay have a prospect league of them? First base? He might not start at the beginning of the year, but then again Brandon Belt might, and he could be as good as Buster $30 Posey. Some times bad Karma turns out to be good Karma in disguise.

Grab your cheat sheets. Yahoo auction leagues are open for business!

Anti-Murdoch Marketing

2010-11-09T11:28:00.003-06:00

Rupert Murdoch writes lots of paychecks, and as he is a believer in Capitalism (capital-C), we understand the purpose of these checks. The Fox News people, the Fox Sports people, the New York Post people and the voice talent for the Simpsons are to make him money short-term and/or long-term. The checks Murdoch writes are investments.

Murdoch, being a sophisticated strategist, invests in the media for more than one reason. Sure, he likes selling ads. He also likes selling opinions. He wants the governments of the countries where he operates to regulate his operations (but not necessarily others) minimally such that he can make the most money and have the most influence.

Do you notice that only one side is being argued effectively on Murdoch's media? More than not, the academic evidence would argue the opposite. But, we do not read much science-based evidence in the Murdoch papers. Everything is man-bites-dog. Everything is a political opinion. People get used to it. Watching Fox News, it has been demonstrated, can actually make you know less about the subjects they report on.

The same is true with the baseball announcers on Fox Sports. They talk endlessly about small ball, momentum and match ups, the low sample size junk-statistics which are generally not predictive, and the zero sum, zero run strategies that usually do not lead to wins. Often it is players that tell us these things. Perhaps, the dumber players. These same announcers critique "stat guys", the people who understand the importance of players not making outs and understand the large sample size stats (platoon advantages, park effects, cold weather) that do affect the scoring of runs that cause winning and losing. In the opinion of the typical Fox Sports baseball announcer, "heart" is far more important than the skill "stat guys" would measure. Older announcers like Vin Scully understand the game and the statistics, but I do not recall hearing Vin on Fox. Murdoch has a strategy: "Keep the people who understand baseball off the air." And you may rightly say, "it is just a game". So what, if most baseball announcers are dunces?

But, Murdoch also keeps the people who understand economics and the like off his stations, reducing science based fact to a poorly argued "side" of a "fair and balanced" opinion discussion. He is presenting equivalences. He is marketing that my unsubstantiated opinion is equal to your substantiated opinion.

Evidently, most people do not care if their sports entertainment and news entertainment are presented in the same manner. Maybe, we like an announcer that clearly favors our team or our country. Maybe, it makes us feel superior to have ideas that are often more correct that what we see on TV. Maybe, people just like having their naive beliefs reinforced. I do not understand how this strategy of "keeping us dumb" sells, but it obviously makes money for Murdoch.

But, Murdoch is not the only Capitalist genius around, and what works for him can work for others. Murdoch is a "threat" in the SWOT analysis of competing media. How to deal with the threat? One can copy what he does, only with opposing slants.

The first point an anti-Murdoch makes is that hired opinion leaders are not "people with heart" who instinctively know economics and the like, whether expert in these topics or not. The first point an anti-Murdoch makes is that the people on Murdoch's stations are employees of Murdoch, who parrot Murdoch's talking points.

How does an anti-Murdoch communicate that Beck, Palin and the WSJ editorial page writers are Murdoch employees? One thing you might try is to hire a sports announcer to do the same job as Beck and Palin, but making the opposite points.

Next, suspend the sports announcer over an employee manual violation.

Marketing is hard. And, no one markets opinion like Murdoch.

But, making the point that opinion presenters are employees, just like most people, and do what they are told, just like most people, is brilliant anti-Murdoch marketing.

A Drive To Canada

2010-10-24T14:16:00.000-05:00

Monica and I gave Montreal a proper visit, staying not too far from the Cathedral of Notre Dame for two nights. In 7th Grade, when I took French, I had thought I should visit Montreal. (It took longer than anticipated.)

The Botanical Garden had an excellent Chinese Garden with hand-crafted lanterns from Shanghai containing LEDs. Subways were excellent-- what Minneapolis-Saint Paul would consider if it were reflective. We ate well, as we sought out French cooking. I do not often order escargot and bison in a restaurant full of antique radios. We also sought out donuts, as I am a fan of Tim Horton's. I was surprised to hear more English than French, but we mostly spoke to the bilingual employees of hotels, museums and restaurants.

Baseball in Montreal seems to have failed. There was a statue of Jackie Robinson wearing an Expos jersey near the stadium (and Olympic Park). Of course, Jackie Robinson was dead before the team formed in Montreal, and now the Expos team is dead too, unless you are a Washington Nationals fan. I found a playoff game on TV and they spoke of "circuits," the French word for home run. Did you realize that the French had a different word for home run? Why? Another channel was showing CSI- Les Experts.

We did not tour Rogers Stadium in Toronto, but did go inside the adjoining Renaissance Hotel, and looked down on it from Canada's National Tower. On a clear day, you can see Niagra Falls from there. Our highlights included watching the Second City comedy troupe and going the the shoe museum. Ancient shoes and 1970s style pieces were both fun to view. We also saw creative ceramics by younger artists nearby and ate well at a Korea Town restaurant near the subway and our parked car.

Surprisingly, there was an apparent drug murder a block away from our parked car. Neighborhood young adults were talking about it and Monica found out more online. "Here!?," one asked in surprise to the other. I had told Monica that here (near Bathurst station) seemed like a very safe neighborhood to park the car. I imagine it usually is a very safe place.

Our drive started inauspiciously, as Monica very nearly hit a deer in her first ten minutes of driving in Northwestern Wisconsin. The deer just stood there, even as she swerved past it. Our first night was in Iron Mountain, Michigan of the Upper Peninsula, birthplace of football coach, Steve Mariucci. I wrongly assumed the hockey Mariucci (John) was born there as this seemed to be a winter sports and ski area. Night two was in Sudbury. Then, we found freeway through Ottawa to Montreal. We saw lakes and fall trees everywhere. Several of the lakes were great-- Superior, Huron, Erie. The trees were mostly evergreen until we hit Quebec, where they were mostly deciduous. Lots of maple leafs.

As we stopped on our way to Toronto, we locked the keys in the car. "Who's fault was that?," the gas station woman asked. I said, "It was my fault." She said to Monica, "Good. Otherwise, you would never hear the end of it." One Canadian suggested calling the CAA, when I asked if someone had a Slim Jim. "You can buy one from that shelf right over there." I was not talented at operating the Slim Jim, but after twenty minutes, a Canadian stopped by to help, and it took him a mere minute and a half to unlock the car.

We stopped at Niagra Falls, mailed postcards, then drove on to Cleveland, to Chicago, and home. The US drive went quite a bit quicker, as it was mostly on interstate roads.

In Chicago, we spent the evening wandering near the Clybourn rail station after watching a Second City Comedy School Level C Improv recital. This was fun, though we would have preferred the sold out main stage. Finding the station and the car later on was tricky-- no maps at the station or in the train, and my Internet printout said "Arlington Heights" rather than "Arlington Park". It was a nice, warm night and we enjoyed the walk and these areas of Chicago. We happened upon a "Five Guys" where we ate. Taxis were available to rescue us when lost or confused. We took two.

Our best hotel was in Montreal. Wotif.com has found me nice downtown hotels (usually with kitchenettes) throughout Australia, in San Francisco and now in Montreal. We stopped at some Motel 6's as well, mostly because they are dog friendly. Travel Lodge and Knights Inn ranked lower, but we had good experiences everywhere.

It was a nice way to spend anniversary number number four. A next trip is already determined-- the Grand Canyon.

Regular Season, over, mercifully

2010-10-03T19:10:00.005-05:00

Spring Training, my favorite season, can not come soon enough. The Yahoo League was fun-- came in fourth, but first still seemed possible two days ago. The CBS League got off to a bad start and never recovered. Both ranks are my worst ever. I have played in at least one Yahoo league every year since 2001 and this is my second CBS League.

There were positives-- Buster Posey in the Yahoo League was amazing. Mike Stanton in both leagues was very good. There are keepers that have value for next year in the CBS League.

The nice things about coming in fourth were that: a) it was a competitive fourth and b) 1-7 were very strong players. I watched as several teams loaded their pitching staffs for a strong last weekend finish. It worked for all of them, my team included. What my team lacked was any sort of hitting push during the last several days. Wright, Posey and Stanton produced during the final week, but Lance Berkman barely played and Jay Bruce got his four homeruns on days I benched him against left handed starting pitchers.

Do my worst finishes ever correspond with the higher ticket prices of Target Field and seeing fewer games this year? If so, I assume the Twins will do well in the post-season to try to make it up to me.

A Week and Change of Baseball

2010-09-24T11:31:00.002-05:00

In the NL West, the Giants, Rockies and Padres are still competing. In my Fantasy League, there are seven teams still competitive of the twelve, making a great race.

Bashibashi, in blue, has not looked outstanding in the standings, but with the potential of 90 end of season points is still competing for first place. The team has seven closers and is now making up points in saves. The team is third place in homeruns, after a slow start, and now needs a push in RBIs for several points. WHIP is also a key category as 1.26 (or 1.25) instead of 1.27 is worth several points and a couple points in ERA are also possible. Lincecum at the Rockies, Hudson at the Nationals, and spot stater, Tommy Hunter at the Athletics go tonight. As all three match ups look to be pitchers duels, with tough young pitchers opposing, these should be low scoring games. (It is amazing how often both sides have a low scoring game against the tougher pitchers or how often both sides have a high scoring game when just one of the pitchers is not as good.) Spot starter, Nick Blackburn, did well Wednesday in the post clinch game with the win and 7br in 7ip.

End of Year Baseball Push

2010-09-13T11:48:00.007-05:00

The team was briefly in second yesterday, then fell back as Tim Hudson slightly dinged the team WHIP and ERA. Yesterday was big, with a strong Tim Lincecum win, four homeruns, two steals and three saves.

A couple points in saves will be made up, and 8 points look well within range. A few points may come at the expense of the current leader so first place is still possible in the Yahoo league. The top seven teams (those still looking competitive) are shown in the graph. My team is in blue.

I have gone to the equivalent of a three man pitching rotation with Santana out for the year, and am trying to get to 162 games per position.

A Down Year for the Bashi Baseball Teams

2010-09-08T18:22:00.005-05:00

The Yahoo League is hyper-competitive. I could see this at the beginning of the year, when I looked at manager performance history. Sometimes "winner's league" is a meaningless phrase, but with everyone battling in September, this league feels like a winner. Closers were hard to come by most of the year, though now I am up to five. It is possible that I might still end up in the middle of the saves category. First base was also difficult when Kendry Morales went down for the year. I filled in with Troy Glaus and Mike Lowell, then more recently with Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman. Second base was challenging as Howie Kendrick did not start out strong. I added Gordon Beckham and then decided on Brian Roberts. The current offense is solid top-to bottom with Berkman, Roberts, Reyes, Wright, Posey, B.J. Upton, Quentin, Heyward, Stanton, Lee, and Bruce. Juan Uribe and Jim Thome are current injury fill-ins.

Lincecum and Hudson lead the pitching staff. Jamie Garcia was dropped because I was reaching the innings limit. Phil Hughes was dropped because he faces a tough schedule. I still have Johan Santana, and hope he can pitch a few more games. (I wish I had kept Garcia.) Closers are Gutierrez (Ari), Lyon (Hou), Uehara (Bal), Rodney (Ana) and Hanrahan (Pit). Putz will be my sixth reliever.

There are many points within easy range in most categories. The team is in third at this moment, with the first place team 13 points up. How close? Teams 1, 2, and 3 have 181 HRs a piece. ERA's are 3.48, 3.43 and 3.46. The 7th place team is 4.5 points behind.

The CBS team is most likely out of the money, currently in 7th, 14.5 points behind 5th, 15.5 points behind 4th. These positions do not pay so much anyway, so the question is which 7 keepers to keep, or is there trade value to obtain better keepers?

Looking at FIP and K/9, Francisco Liriano (at $18) looks like a great pitcher for 2011. Tommy Hanson, looking at these same peripheral stats looks almost as good. Clay Buchholz at $6 must be kept.
Considering where he plays, and the possibility of a trade (does Boston keep David Ortiz?), Adrian Gonzalez feels like a keeper, a notch below Pujols and Cabrera.
Jason Heyward ($6 next year) is a no brainer.
Eric Young, Jr. ($6 next year) is a tougher call.
Mike Stanton, age 20, at book value (TBD) feels worth the risk as he seems to have as much power as anyone, even if book value is $15 or $18.
Jamie Garcia, also at book value (TBD) may be rookie of the year, but does not make the cut, even though he has been more good than lucky.
Brandon Morrow ($6 next year) has dominated at times, e.g., the 100 game score and leads everyone in K/IP.
Neftali Feliz ($9 next year) has been dominating as a reliever. Like Morrow, he is a 100+ mph fireballer, though unlike Morrow, his control has been exceptional.
Chris Perez ($9 next year) has also been an excellent closer, and unlike Feliz, is certain to close next year. Joel Hanrahan and Koji Uehara are also protectable closers.
Madison Bumgarner is available at $6. James Loney is available at $6.
Domonic Brown is available at book value.
One could consider Carlos Quentin at $21, but Felix Hernandez at $36 is more tempting.
Pablo Sandoval, at $10 will be set free based on his down year of 2010. I imagine his auction value will be about $10.

The Wii Bike Path

2010-07-20T15:12:00.007-05:00

For my birthday, Monica got me a Wii. Since then, I have been biking the big island on Wii Fit Plus, as this activity takes the longest time of any of the activities and does not require full concentration. I proceed past the first couple of levels, then got to the expert level. The first few times at expert level, I did not get to all of the flags, as the game tells me 60 minutes of biking is long enough. More recently, it takes 30-35 minutes for me to find all 20 flags. My record for shortest distance traveled is 7.8 miles. As there seems not to be any cheats posted on the internet, here is my route these days. I am not saying this is the shortest route, but it the the shortest I have found. I am now generally labeled as a "professional".

The Wii Fit Plus Bike Expert Route:
Flag 1: Proceed straight ahead.
Flag 2: Go to the waterfall. It requires a slight left. You go under a pi shaped rock formation to get there.
Flag 3: Go through the tunnel. Exit using the left tunnel.
Flag 4: Bike up the mountain path
Flag 5: Bike past the castle then turn left on a bridge which takes you behind the castle. Continue around the mountain path to the flag in the green area. Getting back to the Flag 2 area is actually the hardest part of the game. You need to wind around to the area in front of the castle and continue to the right and backtrack through the tunnel. It is challenging to go back through the tunnel without biking off the path into the water. Take it slow through the tunnel.
Flag 6: Turn right upon exiting the tunnel to a second tunnel. There is a flag in the tunnel.
Flag 7: Continue through the tunnel. Take a right onto the ramp upon exiting the tunnel. Continue in the grass until you find the flag. Then, backtrack through the tunnel.
Flag 8: Go back through the pi shaped rock formation and to the lower path. Take a right to the windmill area, where there is a flag.
Flag 9: Continue across the blacktop path to the lighthouse. There is a flag on the other side of the lighthouse.
Flags 10-13: Take a left turn onto the blacktop and proceed around the island on the blacktop in a clockwise manner. The flags are on the path, except for one flag which requires a left turn up a rocky area toward a castle. (Once you get the flag, then backtrack and continue clockwise along the blacktop.) Keep going until you are through the tunnel with the beach on the left and a mountain on the right.
Flag 14: Proceed right, up the hill toward the mountain. A flag is in the grass.
Flag 15: Continue through a tunnel to the sandy area where the flag is. Then backtrack and go left, which is down.
Flags 16, 17, 18: These flags are on the beach. The first one is straight down the hill from the path. The second is under a rock formation. The third is behind a mountain. Then backtrack through the sand toward the big bridge along the blacktop path (continue clockwise).
Flag 19: This flag is in the middle of the big bridge. Continue straight ahead.
Flag 20: This flag is in the middle of town. Then take a right to the ramp which gets you to the finish line.

This should get you all of the flags in 30-40 minutes.

Update, 7/30/2010:
High Score: 7.688 miles, shortcut champion (a counter clockwise route)
Fastest Time: 28 minutes

Moscow

2010-05-25T14:55:00.006-05:00

Monica's Photos

Monica's write up (more complete): here

I expect to see chess in Red Square, Izmayovsky Park and Gorky Park. But, I did not see it anywhere. Is chess out of fashion in Russia? Retired world champion, Garry Kasparov, head of the anti-Putin party, the Other Russia, still plays occasionally. Could it be a political act to play chess in Russia?

Moscow was a very clean city with an excellent subway system. Everyone was friendly to us.

We arrive at Terminal F, stop at a bankomat (ATM), and follow signs to the train station, the Airport Express. Most of the signs are in Cyrillic, but Cyrillic is phonetic, not overly difficult, and the sign translates to "Airport Express." We are the last ones onto the 2 p.m. train, which has first class chairs even for those of us not in the business class. It is a comfortable 35 minute ride to the subway station.

We walk to the Belorussky subway stop, which is on the circle line, transfer to line 3 and stop at Izmaylovsky Park, where we find our hotel, Izmaylovo Vega. The hotel complex served athletes at the 1980 Olympics. Check in is easy. We are on the 10th floor. They give us an ethernet cable for internet access. As with Asia, a room key must be inserted into a slot to provide power to the room.

I send an email to our translator/orientation guide, Nailya. She meets us at 5:30 and shows us around the Red Square area. She dispels some of the stereotypes about Russia.

In the morning, we have a big buffet breakfast (included). There are fish, meatballs, orange juice, coffee, beets, cabbage, pancakes, eggs, sweets and drinking yogurt. Also, a woman is playing bouncy music on a keyboard. Most people here are international athletes, participants of the 2010 Rugby series.

We take the subway to Revolution Square and stand in line for Lenin's tomb, where he continues to remain unburied. Our bags are efficiently checked. Nearby, we see markers for Yuri Gagarin, Joseph Stalin, Andropov and others.

We walk past flower gardens where actors are posing as Lenin and Stalin for pictures. We cross bridges giving views of the Kremlin. We walk past the British Embassy and the headquarters of an oil company.

We tour Saint Basil's which is only one or two floors plus basements and towers. It is a beautiful 16th century building. The towers are impressive to view from the inside, as well as the outside.

We see a replica of Mir at the cosmonaut museum. Here we see statues of various explorers such as the first man in space, Yuri Gagarin, and taxidermy of the first two dogs to survive space travel.

Nearby is Victory Park where we see sand sculptures celebrating the end of World War II. Signs celebrating victory in World War II are throughout Moscow.

We go to the Bolshoi ballet and see hammy opera singers perform the Tsar's Bride. There are four acts and three elaborate set changes. All of the performances are excellent regardless of billing. A mural on the ceiling depicts scenes from famous operas. Afterward, we go to a restaurant that Nailya recommended for goulash, piroskas and soup.

Monday morning, we walk amongst nature in Izmaylovsky Park, viewing rabbits and squirrels. Russians are standing in fields wearing Speedos to sunbathe. We see a small group of men smoking and drinking as we enter and exit.

There is a junky souvenir area near the hotel. It has elaborate towers and from a distance looks like Disneyland, but is poorly maintained and mostly abandoned. Someone wants to sell me a fur hat for 500 rubles, then 2 for 500 rubles, then 200 rubles, but I see no value in a fur hat.

On our final night, we go back to our favorite restaurant for kibbobs, latte, piroshka, vodka and tea. It rains for two hours, then we retreat back to Red Square for final pictures.

I brought a recorder, so will be reviewing the sounds of Gorky Park, our nature walk and subway rides. Overall, it was a pleasant trip. We looked like Russians-- some even asked for directions-- so fitting in was not an issue.

One Month of Fantasy Baseball

2010-05-03T08:48:00.011-05:00

As you can see from the chart, both of my fantasy baseball teams are bad this year. But, numbers lie. Actually, I like both teams quite a bit. The Yahoo team was in first place in a super-competitive league, two days ago. (Johan Santana giving up 10 runs yesterday cost five points, but I will keep him.) The CBS League team is shaping up very nicely.

Rotoworld is my primary source for baseball news and strategy ideas, but they are a little slow to report some news.

Jake Fox, who did a fine job of filling in for Derrek Lee when the Cubs first baseman was injured, seems to be starting regularly for Oakland. Jake started the season as backup catcher, then gained catcher eligibility quickly when Kurt Suzuki was injured. Now, Jake is platooning at DH in addition to being the backup catcher to Josh Donaldson. I am excited by his 12 homeruns in 278 major league at bats and his career minor league OPS of .885. He certainly brings more potential to the second catcher position than John Buck, even though Buck did have a three homerun game last week. Fox's .208 average this year is probably why Rotoworld has not tooted his horn so much lately. But, one good game corrects the average.

Koji Uehara should be activated by the Orioles in a day or two. Yahoo sees him as a closer. Rotoworld points out his closing experience in Japan. CBS seems unaware that he may be in line for saves.

Madison Bumgarner, a highly touted prospect, was in line to be the Giants fifth starter but was terrible in Spring Training. He went to the minors, was still terrible and reports indicated he lost 3-4 mph velocity on his fastball. The Giants GM claimed he was not focusing on baseball during an off-season when he got married and had developed bad mechanics. Then everything changed back, and now he has won three in a row with three strong performances and a reported 93 mph fastball.

Eric Young is now leading off for the Rockies most of the time. He was called up when Brad Hawpe was injured, but typically replaces Clint Barmes in the field. So far, he has three stolen bases. Now age 25, he stole 306 bases in the minors, and is considered the fastest in the game.

Though the CBS team lacks power, it has speed to burn. Also, it has a fine collection of dollar players, who will be building blocks for next year and trade bait for this year:
James Loney, Jason Heyward, Eric Young, Clay Buchholz, Brandon Morrow, Mike Adams, Todd Helton, Desmond Jennings, Madison Bumgarner.

I added Jaime Garcia to pitch for both teams, since he is off to a hot start for the Cardinals. Aside from Jose Reyes and Rick Porcello (just added to the Yahoo team), players I selected for both the Yahoo and CBS teams have done well lately. They are David Wright, Jason Heyward and Jay Bruce. I claim Jason Heyward is the top rookie since Albert Pujols at 37 HR, .321 (2001) and Mark McGwire, 49 HR (1987). Though, Justin Upton had me almost as excited in 2008. Pujols, as a rookie, was on my first fantasy team and having Heyward feels the same.

Asakusabashi Baseball Year 2

2010-04-02T11:39:00.008-05:00

As a rookie last year, I ended up tying for fifth, and just barely in the money. I felt confident that with the seven keepers I had "protected" that I could greatly improve my team this year. The draft was competitive and much different than last year. I am not sure whether my team is improved or not.

My keepers are Jason Heyward, OF ($1), Pablo Sandoval, 3B/1B ($10), Eric Young, Jr. 2B/OF($1), Tommy Hanson, SP ($13), Madison Bumgarner, SP ($1), Billy Wagner, RP ($14) and Neftali Feliz, RP ($6). The $1 prospects range the gamut. Heyward looks like the next Pujols and will start for Atlanta. Bumgarner was given every shot at the rotation but has not looked good. Eric Young, Jr. looks good, but the Rockies sent him down anyway. Certainly, having these keepers ($46 for 7 players) benefits the team, even if two of the seven start the season as dead weight.

A common strategy in drafting a team is "stars and scrubs." Last year, I drafted Albert Pujols ($42) and Miguel Cabrera ($33) at first base and Johan Santana ($35) at pitcher. Those stars carried my team for quite a while.

I would have done the same this year, but others were following my playbook. Albert Pujols was protected for $47. Hanley Ramirez went for $49. Miguel Cabrera went for $40. Mark Teixeira went for $39. Ryan Braun and Tim Lincecum went for $40. The teams who spent on these top players may do well and I would have drafted them myself at the right price.

In an auction, you can always get the player you want if you have the money. I selected David Wright ($35), Jose Reyes ($31) and Matt Wieters ($19).

One also has to take what comes to you. Felix Hernandex, SP ($31), Ichiro, OF ($21), Nick Markakis, OF ($23), Curtis Granderson, OF ($20) and Erick Aybar, SS ($8) were players I did not necessarily target, but liked the price. Last year, it seems like everyone was stacking their outfield except for me, and it seemed like I spent the whole year trying to improve my outfield. This year it did not seem like outfield was a priority for anyone in the league. As the prices were much cheaper, I took advantage.

Prior to the draft, I targeted Jay Bruce, OF ($16) or Carlos Quentin or Carlos Gonzalez for outfield power. With speedsters in the middle infield, I felt I still needed the power. Drafting Bruce left $10 for seven players and was not a good strategic move as Todd Snider for $1 would have also served this role. Drafting Rick Porcello, SP ($4) left $6 for six players. I squeezed myself out of $2 closers and will struggle with saves. Top dollar went for every save last year, so I did not budget for saves.

My dollar picks were Todd Helton, 1B, John Buck, C, Brian Bruney, RP, Mike Adams, RP, Clay Buchholz, SP and James Loney, 1B.

We pick reserves in a snake draft. I chose Todd Snider, OF, Nick Johnson, 1B, Placido Polanco, 2B, Brad Penny, SP, Lastings Milledge, OF and Justin Duchscherer, SP.

I try to use most of the $260 of draft money for top players and this team has its share of top players. So, I have to be satisfied with the way this draft turned out, even if I can point to a team or two I like better.

OF: Markakis, Granderson, Ichiro, Bruce, Heyward
IF: Wright, Sandoval, Reyes, Polanco, Aybar, Helton, Loney
C: Wieters, Buck
SP: Hernandez, Hanson, Porcello, Buchholz, Penny
RP: Wagner, Feliz, Bruney, Adams
Bench: Snider, Milledge, Young, Johnson, Duchscherer, Bumgarner

Pitchers:
CBS Projects (excluding the bench): 85W, 40 SV, 1094K, 3.54 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
Rotoworld projects: 82W, 42 SV, 1070 K, 3.53 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

Hitters:
CBS Projects (excluding the bench): .289 BA, 237 HR, 1112 R, 1040 RBI, 170 SB
Rotoworld projects: .293 BA, 261 HR, 1194 R, 1101 RBI, 188 SB

Yahoo Baseball 2010

2010-03-12T15:02:00.009-06:00

I signed up for a Yahoo League again this year. As always, I set the level of competition as high as possible. Usually, these leagues end up easy to win. This year I signed up on the first day for one of the first "winners leagues". I can already tell that this league may be hard to win.

Rounds 8 and 9 gave early clues. I drafted Carlos Quentin in round 8, not so much because I felt he was critical to have, but it was too early for me to draft the second year non-superstar players that I wanted for catcher and second base. The player I wanted in round 9 went in round 8. The player I wanted in round 10 went in round 9. Enough of this I said. So, I draft Jason Heyward in round 9 instead of round 11. The closers all get drafted, even closer candidates like Jon Rauch, Kevin Gregg and Jason Frasor. Top rookies, like Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman, also get drafted.

But, having a knowledgeable team or two does not mean that the league as a whole will be competitive. That the final pick in the final round was Joe Nathan did tell me this was a competitive league. If anyone was auto-picking or unaware of his injury, Joe Nathan would have been drafted in the first ten rounds. Everyone was aware of this recent news. Drafting him last says, I know he is injured, but I also know he has not yet gone under the knife and there is still a percent or two of hope. There is nothing to lose by drafting Nathan.

My draft position was ninth. Per the default rankings, Kinsler or Cabrera should be available in the second round. In the first round, I am considering Braun or Kemp, essentially the same combination of power and speed in the outfield. When they are picked as number seven and number eight, Mauer, Wright and Lincecum become the top choices for my first round pick. Looking ahead, Victor Martinez will probably be available in the third round, so I consider Wright and Lincecum, and not Mauer, finally deciding on Tim Lincecum, SP as my first round pick. I drafted Mauer in a mock-draft and it seemed like catchers were the top available players every few rounds-- Martinez, McCann, Wieters, Montero, ....

Kinsler and some first base bombers-- Howard, Fielder and Cabrera all go before my second round pick. Two first basemen, Fielder and Cabrera are drafted by the same team in a somewhat unorthodox move that impressed me. Things are not proceeding as they did in the mock drafts. My second round pick turns out to be my second pick for the first round, David Wright, 3B.

In the third round, 33rd pick over-all, I had penciled in Victor Martinez and Felix Hernandez, as players likely to be available. Victor was the 28th over-all pick and I already had my anchor pitcher, so I draft Jose Reyes, SS a round earlier than I had planned. Even with his injury, I bet he would have been gone, if I had left Reyes on the board. McCann, Hernandez and Cano soon go off the board. No problem, as I like Gordon Beckham as a sneaky pick at 2B and like Wieters at C.

I still do not have much power and like to have a strong first baseman. My rankings show Kendry Morales, 1B ahead of Justin Morneau. Justin is the hometown player, and seems to be going as a fifth round bargain. Why not draft them both?

As Justin goes 50th overall, my decision becomes easy. Some think Johan Santana, SP is over the hill. I think that he had a sub-par year (for him) in 2009 because of an injury that he had repaired. Tim and Johan make my rotation strong regardless of who else is added.

I go for outfielders next, while watching additional strong pitchers get drafted. Missing Josh Hamilton by one pick in the seventh round, I take B.J. Upton, OF in round 6, Jay Bruce, OF in round 7 and Carlos Quentin, OF in the 8th. Gordon Beckham is picked two spots after Quentin, and the owner of Beckham does not want to trade them. After getting B.J. Upton, I felt I had more speed than power, and Bruce and Quentin seemed like the two players on the board most likely to hit 40 HRs. Continuing the trend, I speculated on the Albert Pujols potential of Jason Heyward, OF, as I did not see him lasting beyond another round. Matt Wieters was drafted nine spots before. Holes remain at 2B and C.

Howie Kendrick, 2B filled one hole, but when Miguel Montero went two spots later, I knew that I was not going to draft a catcher for a while. Having a third starter seemed more important than a top closer, so Brett Anderson, SP was my eleventh rounder. Then, I started thinking that with Reyes injured, I could not count of his speed and figured now was the time to grab another burner: Juan Pierre, OF.

I took the best available closers in the next three rounds: Tim Hoffman, RP, Mike Gonzalez, RP and Octovio Dotel, RP.

Now was time to plug the hole at catcher: Jorge Posada, C. In round 17, my fourth starting pitcher became Tim Hudson, SP. Tim Hudson does not get as many strikeouts as I would like, but will likely win games for the Braves.

The Yahoo format has added a utility spot, so having extra first basemen and outfielders this year makes sense. Another pitcher slot was also added. With the innings limit still at 1250, this makes room for a middle reliever or up to six closers. I did my best to utilize these new spots by adding Adam LaRoche, 1B, Corey Hart, OF, Nick Johnson, 1B, Conor Jackson, 1B, Phil Hughes, SP/RP and finally Ryan Madson, RP. (Hughes and Madson were the closest relations to closers that I found still available. This draft was competitive as only one team was shut out of closers.)

I assume that this team will do well, because my teams always do well. But, looking at other manager's Yahoo records, it appears everyone feels this way.

I like my draft and my team. How well will it do? No one knows.

A Philosophy

2010-01-21T10:24:00.005-06:00

All the kids watching cartoons knew that there was a theory of relativity. Not knowing precisely what that meant, I made up my own. Alone with my thoughts, I asked myself what made people happy. I decided it could not be material things alone, because it seemed more was never enough to buy happiness forever. People in caves had none of the material things we have, but were probably happy. Animals, mostly, seem happy. The key might be if their situation that day was a little better than their situation the day before. That was my theory of relativity. Happiness is relative to one's past.

The more I live and learn, the more confirmation I find. Times are better and people are happier in Cambodia now than while the country was under Pol Pot. Though missing limbs are common (from land mines), a friend told me he thought Cambodia had the happiest people in the world.

Many places without our material culture do well in happiness studies. Nicholas Kristof quotes a study that concludes Costa Rica is the happiest place on Earth. Thailand is noted for its happy people. A neighbor in California thought Botswana is a happy place, and moved there with his wife-- it was her home country. None of these places require the money that we are used to spending. Rooms can be found for less than ten dollars a day. I think these places are worth visiting, if only to go there and ponder, "If they are so happy, why not me?"

Certainly, there are reasons we can list why these places will not make us happy. Perhaps, the medical systems are not up to our standards, so our lives would be at risk. These places are away from family and friends. We might miss our things that we are accustomed to that made us happy at home. There might be beggars, bad food, crime, unfamiliar cultures, unfamiliar languages and who knows what other frustrations. People might be racist against us. These places with the happiest people on the planet might make us very sad. As we continue to think, the obvious comes to mind. Happiness is an intangible, a state of mind.

Can't Buy Me Love, the Beatles wrote. And in the the end, the love you take is equal to the love you make. Certainly, love makes us happy. So, love is one thing to strive for. And, in addition to love, I think music makes me happy. Getting over lost love makes us happy, at least compared to the day before. I heard that sad country songs make us happy.

Having an unhappy childhood or an unhappy past career might make a person happy. Look back and be happy you don't have to put up with that life anymore!

And if certain things make me unhappy-- a job, a city, tedious tasks, a routine-- then my theory of relativity says changing things and not doing what makes me unhappy should make me happy. At least that is what I thought when I was nine years old.

Now, these are thoughts I have had most all of my life, so I think there are some natural corollaries. If other people are what make you happy, you have to work to make them happy. Worrying about yourself may or may not be enough. Money is a means to an end. Possessions are means to an end. Jobs are means to an end. Aside from the laws of the land, which one might as well accept, there is almost nothing that a person has to do. Impressing the neighbors? Probably, not a means to happiness. Impressing yourself? More likely. Most of the platitudes seem to still apply with my theory of relative happiness.

It is hard to write this, it is so ingrained in my thoughts and in my psyche. If I had a profound thought, I may not have written it. But, if you ever were curious about my long-standing ideas about happiness, you got the gist.

New York City 2009

2009-10-25T19:53:00.010-05:00

Monica and I find the Paley Center for the Arts in midtown Manhattan. A well dressed man asks whether we are here for the film, then gives us our will call tickets. First, we claim third row seats, then we visit the Stephen Spielberg gallery which features complimentary wine. This gallery displays posters highlighting the threat of global warming. There is a computer terminal for the purpose of collecting names for an online petition to the United Nations.

The film being screened at the Paley Center will be presented on HBO in the Spring. Eric Metzgar, the film maker, had followed Nicholas Kristof to Congo, where Kristof found starving war victims and interviewed a warlord. Most of the questions went to “Nick”, though someone questioned Eric’s claim of trying to be objective. “There is no way to separate the person from the process. I point the camera where I look.” Two time Pulitzer winner, Kristof, is the hero of the film. He reports on those suffering the most so that people can visualize just how bad these wars are. The Paley audience is the media elite. Pat Mitchell, in charge of the program and the organization, is a dynamo. How did we locate this event? Kristof tweeted.
---
We arrive a little early and have a great Buffalo Wing sandwich. On a small stage in what appears to be an old passenger train at Pete’s Candy store in trendy Williamsburg Brooklyn, we will watch Amy Sohn and Julie Klam read from their books, mostly to other women. Hodgman has Twittered us the event notification. Both live up to impressive resumes. Amy enjoyed Julie relating her Letterman intern memories. Julie was an intern while going to NYU film school and her fictional memories of her real job were great fun. Julie likes Letterman. “He had a five year old. As far as we knew, Letterman was a one woman man.”

I went online to get SNL tickets and Daily Show tickets. We walked on Broadway past a Letterman taping. We stopped at TKTS and might have gone to Broadway shows. But, we somehow avoided the major visual broadcast events for more literary and independent events that popped in front of us or into our cell phones’ text mail.
---
One set of tickets was purchased in advance. That was to see the Les Paul trio at the Iridium. Monica asked, “Would you have gone to see Les Paul if he were still alive?” “Absolutely. I loved to play Les Paul on KALX and would definitely pay to see him.” “Great. Then, we are going for the right reason.”

T.W. Doyle, Les Paul’s engineer, opened with some of his compositions, which I enjoyed, especially as he seemed more like a studio guy than a stage guy.

The Trio told stories about Les. Rusty Paul, his son, sat in the back representing the family. (In early November, nephew Steve Miller performs.) I enjoy the bass player particularly. This is how she happened to join the band:

“Les was a master of dirty jokes. I was playing with two guitarists. Les asked me to stay on the stage and they left. Les said something about girl bass players. I said something about old men. Les said ‘Looks like we have an act.”

Larry Coryell headlined the event, playing a speed guitar version of Bolero. (He talked about how he tried to imitate material that he later discovered that Les Paul recorded at 2x speed. I'm guessing that he came up with this in the 1970's.)
---
We spent two evenings at the Symphony Space at 96th Street, which we learned about from an LED sign that scrolled on Broadway near our hotel. Appearing on the 20th: Frank Rich with Rocco Landesman. Appearing the 21st: Stephen Levitt and Stephen Dubner. We pick up the pamphlets at midnight or so, then go online at the hotel to reserve tickets.

The Leonard Nimoy Thalia, of the Symphony Space, seats one hundred or so and provides plentiful table space for writing. White haired people filter in and join us upon finishing their wine at the adjacent cafe, which has provided WiFi allowing me to play Mafia Wars.

Frank Rich, while engaged, could not be more relaxed. He asks paragraph long questions in perfect rhythm and grammar. NEA head and country music fan, Rocco Landesman, could not be more quotable. Rocco’s father founded the Crystal Palace theater in Saint Louis “because there were no good drinking establishments in the area.” It was a place “where people like Woody Allen would have residencies when they were going through divorces.”

We learn that the NEA has a small budget, $165 million, which is less than New York City’s arts budget and that, nonetheless, Glenn Beck finds ways to criticize them. Someone asks about special NEA programs for women. Rocco says this will not happen as the local organizations funded by the NEA choose how to spend the money, not the federal government.

Landesman pitches that the Arts attract the employees that attract the good companies that make cities thrive. “Arts money is development money.” A second thrust is education. “It turns out that the schools that incorporate art into everything, into math, into science, into everything, have the best test scores.”

Landesman faces little controversy from this polite, older crowd of arts supporters though he notes that his answer about arts spending for women “drew faint applause.”
---
“I’m Levitt. He’s Dubner.”

We have figured this out already. The lanky, stiff guy must be the academic. The formally dressed Al Franken-esque guy must be the writer who first interviewed Levitt in 2003 for the New York Times Magazine.

This is a younger crowd. White haired people are present, but scarce. One would think that given the genial and good-humored Dubner lives a few blocks away, this crowd might be equally friendly to the previous night’s crowd. Judging from the questions, four of the five which could be considered pointed or self serving, this is not the case.

First, Dubner and Levitt describe how they met. This is entertaining and may be found in the forward to SuperFreakonomics. Two of the questions relate to environmental scientists accusing Dubner/Levitt of misquoting them, which they refute here.

“Let’s say we stop putting carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It will still take 50 to 100 years before warming stops. The temperature will go up six degrees. We are not saying we need to put sulfur dioxide in the stratosphere (about the flow of one garden hose at each pole) to cancel out the warming effect. We are not saying that ocean acidification and carbon dioxide are not issues. But, we do need to talk about geoengineering. That is all.”

A woman plugs her book. Levitt plugs the woman’s book. Dubner gently corrects Levitt: “You learned about the book on prostitution in Chicago 100 years ago from our blog.”

Levitt coins the phrase "carbon crazies" and apologizes as "this is not language that I use elsewhere." As I texted to Facebook friends about our social skills: Monica is Dubner. I'm Levitt.
---
Frank Rich. Nicholas Kristof. Dubner/Levitt. Their data will be solid. Their opinions will be well thought out. Their books will be best sellers.

Dubner/Levitt perhaps seek out the controversy, but are not angry themselves. People currently in their forties and early fifties seem to like to disagree to be disagreeable. “Mensa doofuses” ask impolitic questions, making themselves look unreasonable, where the same questions could be asked politely and reasonably. Heavily represented on television, I will be pleased to see them go out of fashion.

At less than Mensa level, we found Yankees fans in a lower Manhattan bar to be uniformly obnoxious during a playoff game versus the Angels. How obnoxious? They made fun of the Angels’ Nick Adenhart for being dead. People in Jeter uniforms (number 2) may be telling us more than they imagine. It was not just the one comment or the one bar. Because of the Yankee fans in New York, I can no longer imagine myself rooting for the Yankees team, even against the National League.
---
A jean clad woman drinks from a water bottle. “No drinks,” the librarian giving our tour directs. “This is posted on the front door.” Our tour advances to the end of the hall. “No cell phones,” she directs to a man in a suit. “Please move on.”

The New York Public Library has WiFi. The restrooms in the park have attendants who prevent the grounds from turning into camps for the homeless. The library will soon lend. (It has been a research library.) The mission is clear. “No one had heard of this man. He left his estate to the library pointing out that no one had asked his name, but that nonetheless, help had generously been offered. Our mission is to serve everyone.”

More symbolic of our time is the Metropolitan Opera tour guide who looks at Monica’s backpack (actually more of a camera case.) “Of course, since 9-11, we can not allow backpacks backstage of the Met. Do you have a place to store it? No, there is no place to store it here.”

In my imagination, the librarians of NYPL vigorously debate whether water bottles should be allowed. Meanwhile the director of the Lincoln Center prefers not to think about their policies or to discuss them with employees. “Didn’t the Bush Administration warn us about backpacks?”

So much has changed. No one reads books in the Subways. It seems like they did two and four years ago. Dress is much more casual, even on Wall Street. The pace on the sidewalks has slowed as people stare into I-Phones. People in Manhattan do not seem to be as there as they used to be.

---
We did other things. We toured Central Park and its Shakespeare garden on a cold, damp day. We walked the Brooklyn Botanical Center in warmth and sunniness. We found the New York Transit Museum. (Transit in NYC is several light years ahead of local transit.) We often visited the White Horse Tavern, where Dylan Thomas drank, for late night suppers. We ate the Barack Obama and the Willie Dixon (both excellent) at Amy Ruth’s on 116th in Harlem. We wandered and walked with direction, primarily around the Village. We stopped for “Brief Interviews with Hideous Men” at the IFC Theater.

We found comedy clubs. The first was the Village Lantern, no cover (they asked for donations), where we went because we were hungry. We had been assured some of the comedians had been validated by TV appearances, though the crowd was outnumbered by the comedians. Their schticks related to identity-- black guy, gay guy, guy from India, Bronx guy. The other comic troop, the Upright Citizens Brigade, was a higher league, still only five dollars. Their improv was quite professional.

Giuliani acknowledged Monica near Central park. (I was staring off into some other reality at the time.) Bill Thompson, Obama endorsed candidate for mayor, was surrounded by press in Brooklyn. I would have missed that too without Monica. The Hodgman and Kristof tweets? I would have missed them, also. This was our third anniversary trip. I can not imagine traveling without her.

It's More Important How? than What?

2009-10-08T23:22:00.009-05:00

Nicholas Kristof says the biggest global opportunity, comparable to ending slavery or totalitarianism, is advancing women's roles in the emerging world. Others worry about climate change, financial collapses, religious extremists or the bomb.

But, perhaps the proper question to consider first is not the what. Maybe, it is the how.

How are the needs of individuals dealt with in an age when corporations (and governments and the ultra-rich) have the money, the power and the votes?

Ayn Rand and the Cato Institute would abolish government, effectively giving all of the power to the wealthy who can move to private utopias and ignore the biggest issues.

The Republican party is more worried about the welfare of corporations than the welfare of voters.

The Democratic party in its quest to "solve" problems can forget that appetites are insatiable and that a "free market" can be reasonably efficient.

Here are some proper roles of government (the how):

Regulate away the ability of economic giants to create "externalities" such as depressions caused by high risk investing.

Limit the bigness of corporations and thus limit their power to extort governments. (Any corporation with more than one billion dollars in sales should be taxed heavily enough that it considers splitting itself into smaller, less politically powerful companies.)

Tax "externalities" such as the pollution and carbon dioxide created by a large business. (Cap and trade is a reasonable way to limit carbon dioxide. If corporate use of sweeteners causes obesity, which shortens lifespans, then tax Coca Cola's use of high fructose corn syrup.)

Tax "externalities" that an individual creates. (Gas taxes should be much higher. Energy taxes should be higher and progressive.)

Create roads and public transportation with the vision of continued economic growth. (If the top 10% of income earners are not riding public transportation, then the public transportation is not designed correctly.)

Engage globally. Being the one remaining military "superpower" creates the obligation to be engaged and multilateral. (The United Nations must be regarded seriously as it is the body best representing the globe.)

If we get the how correctly, then we can move on to some more important "what" issues:

Ensure some basic standard of living. (If people live in places less nice than a Motel 6, then offer them a Motel 6.)

Make excellent education available to all.

Health care is hard. Reducing infant mortality in the United States should be a top goal. Did you notice that I did not solve it? When Barack Obama pointed out that 80% of health insurance in the state of Alabama is controlled by one company, he nailed the essence of the problems with the current system.

And, how to improve the plight of women in third world countries? You may have to do that one on your own, though Nicholas Kristof can provide ideas.

That Barack Obama is essentially getting the how right is more impressive to me than the Nobel Prize. Or, to be more accurate, not getting it terribly, terribly wrong is impressive to me in this era.

Overtime

2009-10-05T10:20:00.011-05:00

The Twins need to win three of four games to tie the Tigers last week. Instead, they won two. Ozzie's White Sox beat the Tigers two out of three while the Twins swept the Royals. So, the Twins tied the Tigers the hard way, forcing a one game playoff.

Likewise, Clay Buchholz, Tim Cahill, and K-Rod pitched poorly. If the Asakusabashi Bazookas are to take fifth, they will have to do it the hard way. Currently, it is a tie for fifth. If points change during the Twins tiebreaker, that will serve as the tie breaker for the CBS League. The Twins and the Bazookas are in overtime. Update: The Twins advance to the post-season by winning in twelve innings (over-time). The Asakusabashi Bazookas hang on to a tie for fifth, worth $45 toward transaction costs. (Miguel Cabrera would have had to go 5 for 5 or steal a base to change the standings. Winning fifth out-right was worth $90.)

A six homerun game on Thursday, lead by Jay Bruce with two, brought the Bazooka Kazoos to a perfect 60/60 hitting points in the Yahoo League. Wins by spot starters Randy Wells, Ryan Rowland-Smith and Wade LeBranc, plus a .57 WHIP day by Nick Blackburn improved the pitching stats dramatically on Saturday for an impressive concluding uptick. Team leaders: Miguel Cabrera (195 hits), Pablo Sandoval (.330 average), Mark Teixeira (34 homeruns, 106 rbi), Matt Kemp (34 stolen bases), Chris Carpenter (17 wins, 144 strikeouts, 1.01 WHIP, 2.24 ERA), Fernando Rodney (30 saves), Jose Valverde (1.81 ERA in 44 IP) and Neftali Feliz (.82 WHIP in 24 IP). Final overall Yahoo Rank: 2129 (147.05 adj points). So, the Yahoo team finishes in the top half of the the 5000, slightly better than the 2007 results and significantly better than in 2008 (which was a tougher league).

One final Week

2009-09-27T18:13:00.008-05:00

There is just one final week between now and the beginning of the baseball off-season. Will the Twins win three of four against the Tigers and follow it up by advancing to the post-season? Will the Bazooka Kazoos finish at 100+ points and rank among the top 5000 Yahoo teams overall? How will my CBS League do? Can it hold ground for a respectable 5th place finish (for an expansion team)? Will the ERA and WHIP come down and get the Asakusabashi Bazookas into 4th? (You picked a fine time to injury your arm, Johan!) Is third still possible? Saves from relatively new closers Gutierrez and Madson today fill me with optimism. The standings look stable, but there are at least ten points still in play.

Some highlights from the upcoming post-season: On October 17, I may get to meet Bill James at a book signing. And, two weeks later, his 2010 Handbook will be mailed!

Missing My'at

2009-09-22T15:27:00.004-05:00

This morning, I brushed Gizmo. She has collected quite a bit of fur. I would not think of Fall as the time a cat would shed. Maybe, she is a weird cat.

My'at collects three brushes of fur for every one on Gizmo. She's not on her usual perch. Where is My'at? It would be a good time to brush her. She will come down if she wants to be brushed.

I vacuum the living room. Gizmo jumps away. I vacuum the stairs. Gizmo, who had relocated to the quieter area, jumps away again. I think to myself, Gizmo has been visiting me quite a bit lately. She shows up on my bed in the morning. I see her on both perches. When was the last time I saw My'at? A week ago? Has she gone missing?

Last time I heard of My'at was when Monica was annoyed with her for stalking Beau and Gizmo on the stairs. Just how annoyed was she? We seem to be going through plenty of cat food. Monica wouldn't give away My'at and some cat food, would she? The house does seem cleaner. Surely, Monica would tell me?

I vacuum the TV room. A previously hidden cat jumps away. The mystery is solved.

False Political Balance Part II

2009-09-22T11:53:00.010-05:00

I watched Keith Olbermann on MSNBC last night. Among his targets: Lawrence Lessig, Bill O'Reilly, Glenn Beck, Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachmann. Among his criticisms: Fox News had a producer hype up the footage of one of the contrived made-for-TV "tea parties" and Lawrence Lessig stole parts of his monologue for a political ad.

Olbermann claimed Lawrence Lessig, founder of the Creative Commons (which Olbermann never mentions), used MSNBC footage without his permission. More about this: here. If Olbermann does indeed represent the anti-corporate wing of the anti-conservative party, then I am not sure why Olbermann would be upset at being used in ad where the producers agree with his point of view. In fact, some would view this as promotion. More importantly, if people like Lessig are not allowed to reframe what is broadcast on "news channels" then are we granting a monopoly on "news" to the big networks?

Likewise, in criticizing Fox for having a producer generate applause at the contrived "tea party", Olbermann neglects that his own network did the same at Saint Paul during the Republican convention. Why else did they give me the tee shirt and wave their arms as they went to commercial? Olbermann knows the tactics of the "other side", because they are the same as the tactics of "his side". Olbermann, the former ESPN sports announcer, views politics as purely sport. Ron Santo, the radio announcer who bleeds Cub blue, has the same job as Olbermann feels he has. (Santo brings a good deal more sincerity.)

As far as I could tell, Olbermann had nothing substantive to say. Perhaps, his writer is taking the week off. His job, at least last night, was to provide a naysaying voice. The Harlem Globetrotters can't play without the Washington Generals. It appeared that Keith Olbermann was a Washington General, helping to bring relevance to "Faux News" and the wackiest of made-for-TV conservatives. Perhaps, this explains why corporate America is finally paying a "liberal" voice. The last thing the left needs is an intellectually dishonest face to balance out Fox News right-wing lies.

(Likewise, Sam Donaldson did not represent the left for ABC. Rather, he was a foil for the much more intelligent and much more wrong George Will. If networks truly want to represent "both sides" then why do they seem to have so much trouble putting intelligent liberals on the air? My answer: the purpose of TV is not to be honest, it is to sell tomato soup.)

P.S., if you see one of those "Vote 2012" promotions at the bottom of your TV screen and TV is where you get most of your news, please don't vote.

False Political Balance

2009-09-09T10:03:00.011-05:00

Debra Saunders, David Brooks and Peggy Noonan are three conservatives that make well argued cases. Often, I agree with them. This does not make "conservatism" as valid as "liberalism". These two points of view rarely have equal validity, and sometimes neither is right. So, today, I take issue with Debra Saunders.

In the Chronicle this morning, Saunders writes, "I love the Van Jones brouhaha." Her argument seems to be that Jones is a nutty lefty, really not much different from those nutty right-wingers. To her credit, "nutty town hallers" and birthers annoy her, so stupid people making Weekly World News type claims, get no support from Debra Saunders, as is fitting.

In 2004, Van Jones (who resigned from the Obama administration before most people ever heard of him) signed a petition that suggested that people in the Bush administration "may indeed have deliberately allowed 9/11 to happen, perhaps as a pretext for war." Is this a wacky Weekly World News proclamation? No, not really. Cheney, Rumsfeld and all of the prominent neo-cons pushed for an Iraq War during the Clinton Administration, and most used 9/11 to justify the Iraq War. A book by Peter Dale Scott examines the theory in detail. While not concluding one way or another, certainly similar things have happened in American history. For example, the Johnson administration used a Gulf of Tonkin non-event to justify the Viet Nam escalation. It is often claimed that FDR allowed Pearl Harbor to happen. What did the Bush administration do once it was learned that "bin Laden is determined to strike in the United States?" [Previous blog entry re: Peter Dale Scott].

Does history suggest a tie between Second Amendment fundamentalism and America's health care? Have past presidents not met the constitutional requirements? Debra Saunders rightly concludes birthers and "town hallers" are flakes. (Evidence indicates they are corporately sponsored flakes.) In contrast, the case made by Peter Dale Scott has historical precedent.

The Bush era was a really bad time in American history. For example, torture is a war crime. If I am a public relations person for the Republican party, I play on the cognitive dissonance of "the greatest country in the world" being involved in war crimes. I stand up and sing the national anthem and "God Bless America" and "America the Beautiful" and that Lee Greenwood song, and after that, how can we imagine our country involved in evil activities?

The second public relations strategy would be to build false equivalencies. People who bring guns to presidential public meetings are the same as controversial historians, and just as patriotic as those who opposed and saw through contrived rationalizations for a stupid war. Nice try, Debra Saunders. And, to those who say the Republican National Committee is incompetent, I say no. In the zero sum game that they feel they are playing, their best strategy is to invent equivalencies to convince us that one side has to be just as bad as the other.

But, let's move past old fights. The Afghanistan War needs to end. The unemployment rate needs to come down. Infant mortality in the US needs to get reduced. These are things that we can agree on whether we are numbers people or letters people-- the "Phantom Tollboth" seems like a timely reference. And, on the trivial matters, we can agree to disagree.

People interested in working toward the common purpose have to be really annoyed at the focus of the discussion.

Adding and Dropping

2009-08-30T22:59:00.006-05:00

Lots of adding and dropping. Johan Santana is out for the year. He is dropped. Aaron Harang had an appendectomy. Dropped. Jake Fox has big homeruns every time he plays, it seems, but hardly ever plays. Dropped. Hiroki Kuroda hit in the head with a baseball. He may return soon. For now, he is dropped. Hank Blalock is no longer playing with Chris Davis called back up. Dropped. Justin Masterson had his two start week where he pitched terribly. Dropped.

Juan Gutierrez seems to be the Arizona closer with Jon Rauch traded to the Twins and Qualls with an injured knee. Added and starting. Derek Holland is starting twice. Added. Trevor Cahill is pitching well. I thought he might have a two start week, but not if Oakland has a six man rotation. Added and starting. Pat Burrell seems to start every day. Added. Carlos Gonzalez. Added and starting.

Pitching has been atrocious, and Carlos Zambrano, back from his injury, has been a culprit. Him, I keep. With a lead in wins, I can afford to use Feliz and Wagner, both of whom have been brilliant relief pitchers, in addition to four closers. Maybe, WHIP and ERA can be coaxed down.

The bench is actually solid. Corey Hart should be back from his emergency appendectomy later in the week. Asdrubel Cabrera should be starting, but my MI is too good, and it is a toss up to put him or Adam LaRoche at utility. Eric Young is mostly a play for 2010, but he will add SBs if Colorado gives him a chance in September. Jason Heyward is done for 2009, but belongs on my 2010 roster. He is another one to be kept. (I have about ten I want to keep, but must choose seven.)

With luck, the lines on the graph keep moving higher.

Fantasy Baseball

2009-08-21T11:23:00.010-05:00

Now that I have the Roku MLB Premium Package, I can look at my pitchers more often. Billy Wagner, in his first appearance of the year, looks spectacular for the Mets. Buchholz, Harang and Santana look good. Neftali Feliz of the Rangers looks spectacular. K-Rod was not so impressive in his two walk shutout inning.

I still battle with keeping outfielders in the CBS league, and may be trying too hard as several castaways are having good weeks. How much will Jake Fox play next week? I won't keep him to be on the bench with a half dozen solid outfielders available.

In both leagues, pitching is uncharacteristically for me yielding wins and high WHIP and high ERA. Usually, it has been the opposite. In the Yahoo League, though I am not bumping the innings limit, neither is anyone else, so it makes sense to carry an extra low WHIP reliever. In the CBS league, the Bazookas might also benefit from extra relievers to lower WHIP and ERA. Neftali Feliz is perhaps the key for both teams. If he has a clone, my teams could use the clone as well. (Maybe, Wagner?)

I get to keep up to seven players on my CBS League, and I suspect all of them will be free agent pickups except Pablo Sandoval, who becomes my $10 franchise third baseman. Should I also keep Posada for $14? Tommy Hanson and Neftali Feliz at book value seem to be a lock. Both are expected to start. Two relief pitchers look like pretty solid bets to keep-- Wagner and Howell, as closers are expensive in this league with it mandatory to carry four actual RPs. Outfielders also seem to carry a premium in this league. Snider at $11? Pence at $22? Coghlan at book value? I will have decisions to make.

Tales of Two Teams

2009-08-02T16:10:00.005-05:00

Have the Kazoos tanked due to the Pujols for Utley/Pence trade? How about because Johan was not traded? Doubtful, in both cases, though the protectable player for star player trades made by other teams could be a factor at some point.

Was it because Clay Buchholz had a bad day? Were minor injuries to Alexei Ramirez and Willy Taveras a reason points were lost? Was loss of playing time for Adam LaRoche a factor, what with all the airplane rides this week? Yes, the little stuff can add up. Today, there was more performance from my bench than from my starters. (Until now, the Bazookas have had no bench.)

Ultimately, the team is just as strong as before, and the points that were lost quickly can be gained quickly. The Kazoos have actually been quite fortunate. No hard to replace players have been lost to injuries.

And, MLB trades helped the team. Ryan Garko, Adam LaRoche and Edwin Encarnacian are middle of the order bats on their new teams. Lastings Milledge, now batting second, becomes an every day Pirate. The light is at the end of the tunnel. The dawn comes after the darkness. Watch out, league. The Bazookas are more loaded than ever.
So, with more middle of the order players at the outfield positions, the R and RBI points can be gained back. The starting pitchers are capable of lowering their WHIP and ERA to be more in line with the wins that they have consistently provided. Shutouts and saves can come in bunches.

What of the Kazoos? The Yahoo team has been in first for two weeks. They might hang on, might not. Pitching is the issue. Hitting is not in question.

David versus the Boston Red Sox PR Machine

2009-08-02T12:38:00.007-05:00

David Ortiz, though hot lately, has had a bad year. The above plot, from fangraphs.com shows David Ortiz's slugging percentage. Formerly, an elite player, in 2009, he has been just average.

Bill James, baseball statistician extraordinaire, just "broke his silence" and wrote that steroids ultimately will not matter to Hall of Fame voters. (Bill James works for the Red Sox.)

The New York Times then leaked that David Ortiz used steroids in 2003 "according to the players' union". (The New York Times owns the Boston Red Sox.)

Now, the Red Sox have traded for Victor Martinez and Casey Kotchman, both of whom will take away at bats from Ortiz, though maybe not much, and maybe not right away.

Are these stories coincidental or has the Boston Red Sox public relations machine implemented their strategy for releasing David Ortiz this year or next?

David Ortiz makes $12.5 million in 2009 and the same in 2010. In 2011, the Red Sox have a club option to retain him. They will not.

Health Care Debate

2009-07-31T09:53:00.007-05:00

When I was in high school, I joined America’s health care debate. Yes, health care was the topic, and I was on the debate team.

Some argue that resolved, everyone should be able to visit a doctor and receive health care. In our current system, you can find an emergency room to treat you regardless of your financial situation, though it may be inefficient and is unlikely to provide you with preventative care. Currently, there is a list of tax deductible medical expenses for those with high expenses. Some say our current system is good enough.

Others argue that resolved, the government should pay for a defined list of health care expenses, including preventative care. Medicare and Medicaid cover a list of medical expenses for older Americans, and may be the model for an expansion of government financed health care. The insurance companies are arguing for their role, as well.

I would like to see an expansion of government financed health care, as infant mortality statistics for the United States are embarrassing. As our next priority, let's subsidize care for children and expectant mothers, then we can expand preventative care. Would Medicare for everyone be a radical idea?

P.S.: My team argued the "squirrel case" that medical records should be posted on Google Docs. (We were ahead of our time as Google was not yet a company. 'Google' meant one with one hundred zeros after it.)

Update: Paul Krugman, New York Times, representing the left, says "Medicare, Medicare, Medicare" is the way to frame the debate. Peggy Noonan, Wall Street Journal, representing the right, now says FDR sagely would propose "Medicare for all." So, maybe I have captured the consensus. To quote John Hodgman, "Your welcome".

Draft comments re: FEIS CCLRT

2009-07-17T12:19:00.021-05:00

As an engineer who loves rail lines, my input is that the FEIS for CCLRT oozes competence, but lacks the vision that BART planners had in 1960.

The FEIS indicates that CCLRT will attract 1600 extra riders per day, about one half of one percent of those going past on I-94. Twin Cities percent transit miles will remain at two percent. Transit use in other cities, such as Oakland, California (as driveable as Saint Paul) will remain more than three times higher than transit use in the Twin Cities.

The Hiawatha line included park and rides and indeed, those using park and rides accounted for more than thirty percent of ridership. No park and rides are provided next to the CCLRT. (New bus routes are unlikely to draw a critical mass of ridership as the buses will be too infrequent to be useful if Hiawatha is predictive. Satellite lots rely on buses.)

Practical issues that could potentially impact ridership, such as those raised by Councilman Melvin Carter are not carefully studied, “All I want is a ticket booth and a toilet at each station.”

Benefits and costs of putting the line underground do not appear to be extensively studied. An underground line, given that the roadway is going to be destroyed and rebuilt anyway, may not be as incrementally expensive as forecast. Engineers can not know what they may find underground, so they conservatively guess costs will be high. What if costs of above ground mitigation are actually as high? The FEIS includes no calculation of how much more valuable a below grade line would be. What is the benefit if the rail line is twice as fast? (The FEIS indicates that the rail line will be “faster than current buses.” )

Design should be customer focused. Given the change in presidential administrations, cost myopia may be unfounded.

Based on neighborhood meetings, there is no mandate for CCLRT immediately adjacent to the proposed Snelling Avenue station. I suggest a non-binding vote at the ballot box in November to validate LRT planning and place the responsibility for this LRT investment where it belongs.

My favorite quote about this line, “This is not Paris.”

My Exercise Program

2009-07-14T11:58:00.005-05:00

My goal is 7.5 miles (or thirty minutes)/day, four days per week, two hours/week on the exercise bike, plus whatever walking Monica and I do.

Mid-Way Report

2009-07-14T10:09:00.005-05:00

The Bazooka Kazoos (Yahoo) still are not in first, though the team cracked the top 20,000 overall. Trading David Aardsma for Jimmy Rollins helps. The hitters--Sandoval, Teixeira, Zobrist, Jeter/Rollins, Longoria, Kemp, Upton, Quentin/Bruce and Cabrera-- make it likely to achieve sixty of sixty possible points in the hitting categories. Currently, the team leads in R, SB and AVG. The pitching is led by Carpenter, Bedard, Hanson and Smoltz, but is drug down by Liriano and Chamberlain. The team now has 6 pts-8.5 pts. in all pitching categories with no solid plan to improve. I suppose I should try to trade a brute for Santana.

In the CBS league, Asakusabashi Bazookas are in fifth, just barely in the money, 4.5 points behind second place. The team may move up if pitchers better their ERA and WHIP projections. The pitchers are second in wins and in the middle of the pack in saves, which I could not have counted on to start the year. The hitters currently have 10 points for HR and 11 points for R. Trading Pujols for Utley and Pence was my biggest move to date, though there is no reason to change much more. Random variation is probably more important than any move I make. I just have to hope for healthy players. The best team (on paper) is now ahead of me, but a couple of questionable teams are also ahead, with many points up for grabs.

Phishing

2009-07-11T11:26:00.006-05:00

This looks like a standard password input screen, but is actually a phishing request that pops up every 15 minutes. I thought my mac was immune. Help!

Yesterday, the popup was phishing for Twitter instead of Google. I reset everything, but the popup persists.

Update: I do not have an issue as long as I use Firefox instead of Safari.

Fantasy Baseball-- Team Reports

2009-06-24T11:17:00.007-05:00

The Bazooka Kazoos seem poised to finally take over first place in my Yahoo League. Every position seems more than solid. David Ortiz was dropped only because Teixeira and Longoria are better. The pitching trails the pace by 63 IP, so I am behind in Ks and Ws. I look forward to both Ks and Ws from Jon Smoltz, starting tomorrow. The team's worst pitcher has been Francisco Liriano, but 74K/83IP is actually pretty good. FAs include Kuroda, Nolasco or Mazzaro, so dropping Liriano is likely.

The Asakusabashi Bazookas, my CBS money league is gelling nicely. Tommy Hanson and Jon Smoltz, who are finally active, provide additional quality 2-start pitchers (whoops, jinxed it). My big trade was Pujols for Utley and Pence, and suddenly the Bazookas go from one of the weaker MIs to possibly the strongest MI (with Alexi Ramirez and Robinson Cano). J. P. Howell, seems to be the Rays closer, so that makes the points I have in the save category sustainable, since K-Rod and Capps can not be expected to lead teams with four closers all year long. Waiver wire find Adam LaRoche (with Miguel Cabrera, David Ortiz and Blalock/Gamel) make the corner infield/utility at least competitive. I rely too much on "unprovens" like Mat Gamel, Chris Coghlan, and Carlos Gonzalez, and even with the addition of Hunter Pence, the outfield is weak, though there are plenty of reinforcements available on the waiver wire. I still think I have a shot at third in this league and smugly think I can pass the first place team, though the currently fifth place team looks pretty strong. Winning without protections may be too much to ask, but at least the team looks like it belongs in third (or maybe second) now.

The Everything that the Man Had

2009-06-17T10:36:00.008-05:00

My favorite blogger blogs about my all-time favorite band: here.

Update: Somewhat Fierce, featuring Dave Russ on Jeff's vocals, played two fun sets at Carleton College. How I miss them. But, the release put together by Scot Covet and Jerry Lefkowitz could not be better. The liner notes are fabulous and there are 9+ hours of material to digest. This includes:
'Abducted by Your Face', the missing masterwork, recorded for 'Sound For Sore Ears'
'Grandma's Fudge,' take that Oakridge Boys
Jeff's 'The Man Who Knew Too Much' debut, with mostly different words.
Gung Ho on video!
Mystery Dates!
Jeff Carpenter's high school band, previously released by me!
Every Jeff band ever!

Jeff invites us to "enjoy the hilarity." Did I say that the liner notes were spectacular?

Our D.C. Trip

2009-05-22T15:08:00.008-05:00

Friday evening, the Beetle is headed to Des Moines. A bit south of the Twin Cities, the car overheats, at least per the gauge. (It turns out to be an electrical issue with the fan.) We turn back, unload, and then load the Mystique. The Mystique brakes a little funny. This is a new problem. But, it was inspected before the last trip and was okay then.

We find Methodist Hospital (Des Moines) at 11 p.m. My stepfather, John, is watching NBA basketball with an aide. Though he has been confused on certain issues, he recognizes Monica and talks coherently about most things. He tells us he is tired and to stop back in the morning, which we do. Pizza House is closed due to police activity.

We visit my father and brother for lunch at Des Moines’ best Chinese buffet. He has lots of pictures to show off and we take some.

Donna has pizza available for us upon arrival in Kansas City. We can tell she is an excellent cook, because she has two deserts available-- strawberry shortcake and desert pizza. We head to the dog park, but Beau is not used to this and hangs close to Monica. Donna’s dogs Scooter and Mandy partake in dog activities.

Melissa shows me how to work my watch. We eat egg-bake for breakfast and head to Louisville.

Our brakes scare me, so I get up early to have brakes repaired. We see Colonial Sanders' grave, stop at the Louisville Slugger factory then head northeast, stopping for lunch at KFC. We make it to Christiansburg, VA at 9 p.m., where Aunt Bev has prepared salad and Jumbalaya. Bev wardens off a whole section of the house for us.

Bev shows off VT stadium, where she works, then we see a memorial to those killed at the incident of April, 2007. Bev and George discuss T-Boy, their dog, and decide T-boy should have surgery in Winston-Salem, where George has dropped him off. George prepares steak for us, then Monica and I show George the wonders of Facebook (which is supposed to help him as a realtor). We watch the movie version of Doubt, which is identical to the Broadway play we saw in 2005, except for emphasis. (It is a much different movie than play, even though the lines are pretty much identical.)

We stop at Foamhenge on our way toward D.C., then decide to drive past our motel to Chesapeake Bay. We eat seafood on a bay view picnic table at Bill's Crab Shack (actually, Stephensville Crab Shack), then go to our just barely within the beltway motel.

We rush through heavy traffic to attend Amy Klobachar’s breakfast meeting, and with Randy Foreman’s assistance find a parking lot and the Hart Office building. Amy is not present, but instead find a full office of boring Minnesotans. (Present company excepted, is ‘boring Minnesotans’ redundant?) Monica is enjoying the Senate office buildings. “Was that Amy Klobachar? No, it is Dianne Feinstein.” I think Monica needs to see the Capitol and Supreme Court building. The Capitol is set up differently than I remember and is now too touristy. We meet Randy at a dog park. (Beau is with us after spending the morning in Union Square parking ramp.) Then, we visit the mall-- Monica is wearing her Mall of America Twins cap. Capitol Hill Suites offers no parking, so we unload our car at the ramp, and load everything, dog included, into a taxi. Randy shows us the White House and Lincoln Memorial. I notice the new World War II Memorial along the way, which bothers me, because the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier at Arlington Cemetery, to me, is the more elegant memorial. Randy’s walking tour through Georgetown is postponed due to rain.

We take pictures of the offices of Senators and Representatives, then meet Randy at the Senate Chef. The three of us go to the Senate gallery with two passes. We get there just after the pro forma session adjourns, but saw the prayer on C-SPAN while waiting to get in. Ignoring the signage, Randy gives us a personalized special tour of the capital, and we see the rotunda area that was open to tourists last time I was there. We head to the Air and Space museum, then take the subway toward embassy row. “We do not have time to see the National Cathedral, I tell Randy. We have a dog.” Randy assures us the cathedral is along the way and is redeemed because Bob Schieffer is giving a talk at the Beauvoir Elementary school graduation there. We would have been upset otherwise, as the National Cathedral detour was a solid mile or two out of the way. Fortunately, Beau, who is proud to have escaped the crate, has done no damage, though if he had, given the time he was confined, it would not have been is fault. Randy and us meet again and take the metro to the Nationals game, where the minimum ticket price, excluding a few promotional seats that are always sold out, is $20. We enjoy the game, and even though the Nationals are bad, they tie the Phillies in the bottom of the ninth before losing in twelve. Fireworks are canceled as the game runs late, “in consideration of the neighbors”. After walking back to the hotel, we decide to drive to Georgetown, where we see more sights. Five Guys Pizza is closed early due to a police issue, so Randy gets to eat at Johnny Rockets before we make it home at 3 a.m. ( I cancel the proposed canal tour based on the time of day.)

We stop at Arlington Cemetery where the walls of Kennedy words always move me. Then, we drive toward Pittsburgh, getting there just after the Pirates game starts. On the spur of the moment, we buy tickets, just as rain delays the game. We catch our breathe, watch the videos and make phone calls until the tarp is removed and the game finished. (Pirates 7, Rockies 4.)

Pennsylvania and Ohio are pretty and we drive on turnpikes until Highway 41, South Lake Shore drive. After a trip along the Miracle Mile, we go to The Patio, which I consider to be a model of a good restaurant-- order and pay, get a glass for your drinks, take a number, the food is delivered, the televisions are on mute with closed captions, good music is on. Our “Studio 6” motel is art deco, actually better designed than our fancy DC Suite.

Our drive through Wisconsin is uneventful. We make it home just as my neighborhood crime meeting ends. Along the way, we have heard my cousin’s band, The Makes Nice, twice on Little Steven’s Underground Garage, the XM channel. (His new band, which sounds like The Makes Nice, is the Saucy Jacks.)

Amazon.com Customer Service Story

2009-05-08T12:57:00.004-05:00

The Issue
Have you e-mailed Amazon.com lately? Answer: no. There are no company e-mails available. Amazon.com is now completely run by robots. And, the robots are screwing up.

My issue? I ordered a memory card and received the following confirmation details from a robotic (no reply) e-mail address:

Order #: 105-7458539-655xxxx
Shipping Method:
Shipping Preference: Group my items into as few shipments as possible
Subtotal of Items: $49.99
Shipping & Handling: $4.99
------
Total for this Order: $54.98

Delivery estimate: April 28, 2009 - May 13, 2009

So, what is the status of this order? I can click on the order number, and this takes me to the Amazon site. However, the Amazon website does not acknowledge that the order was ever placed.

Yes, I like my Kindle. No, I would not recommend Amazon stock at this time, as they have abrogated customer service.

The Resolution
Update 5/20/2009: Amazon re-installed their e-mail address. Amazon did not honor the third party order, which was cancelled by the third party vendor. They say they are sorry, that they try to keep this sort of thing to a minimum, and they will refund the two day shipping price if I wish to order from another vendor. (It was a long response.) My new price would be $64.63. So, to summarize, Amazon cancelled my order without notifying me, but will at least now answer questions from customers via e-mail.

Go ahead and order from Amazon.com if you like. Do not count on them to actually fill your order.

Fantasy Baseball Trades

2009-05-08T08:47:00.007-05:00

I have not spoken much of the Bazooka Kazoos, my Yahoo team. It is still not in first place, though it has gotten closer over the past few days. Evan Longoria (10 HR, 38 RBI, .368) leads the team, and all hitters, except maybe Pujols. Chone Figgins, somewhat quietly, has 12 SB, and was bait, with Frank Francisco to get a slumping Mark Teixeira in a trade today, which pushes David Ortiz to the bench, just as Ortiz takes days off for a sore neck. The pitching has been solid-- 3.07 ERA, 1.21 WHIP-- more of a group performance than any one individual. New adds include Juan Pierre, as fourth outfielder, since he plays with Manny Ramirez suspended, Asdrubel Cabrera, since I traded away Figgins and dropped Ian Stewart (who does not play every day) and Chris Carpenter, returning from this year's minor injury.

The Asakusabashi Bazookas, my CBS team, with real people who I actually meet, continues to exceed all expectations. Albert Pujols, Johan Santana, and to a lesser extent Miguel Cabrera (7HR, 22 rbi, .390) are the primary reasons. Santana (4W, 54 K, 0.91 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) is the top fantasy player over-all and Pujols (11 HR, 32 rbi, .356) with Longoria are the 1-2 of top hitters.

I just traded away strong starters Nick Swisher and Jeff Francouer for a slumping Alexi Ramirez. Ramirez was benched yesterday, but I am counting on him returning to 2008 form, and actually his 2008 April was no better than his 2009 April. Asdrubal Cabrera has been a solid fill-in at middle infield as Jed Lowrie and Khalil Greene both have had injury plagued slow starts.

Micah Hoffpauir was not playing every day and Derrek Lee returned to the Cubs with a grand slam homerun, so Hoffpauir is dropped. I picked up comeback player of the year candidate, Andruw Jones, who also has not been playing every day. I also picked up two-start pitcher Doug Davis to fill in for Carlos Zambrano, on the DL for a baserunning injury. Start one of Davis was poor, and he will be dropped regardless of start two. Jorge Posada also hit the DL, so he will require a replacement next week.

Can a first year team with no protections win in an established league? I can not say odds are good, though the start certainly has been solid.

Neighborhood LRT Meeting, May 4

2009-05-05T14:00:00.001-05:00

Grid 8 Central Corridor LRT/Snelling Station Update
May 4, Central Baptist Church

Presenters:
Robin Caufman, Met Council
Dan Soler and Hue Pham, Central Corridor Project Office

Answering Questions:
Ken Haider, Ramsey County
Samantha Henningson, Ward 4
Mike Klassen, City of St. Paul

Unlike Hiawatha, which mostly goes at 50 mph, the Central Corridor LRT will go 30 mph and stop at lights.
No left turns or crossing University for autos on intersections without signals
Lose signal at Albert.
Heating elements and possibility for District Energy heat.
Bike storage facilities in median next to the rail
A 6" median separates the rail platform from traffic

From Marshall to University, Snelling is at edge of being full.
51 second delay on University at Snelling. Will be 61 second with LRT.

MNDOT study determines Snelling future... currently on hold for lack of staff (additional stimulus projects)... will be done before 2014

Parking solutions report now available: here
Parking Improvement Districts proposed for Raymond, Snelling

Neighborhood Concerns:
not enough time for pedestrians to cross intersection (at Fry)
cars through residential areas (losing mirrors to trucks on Fry when traffic congestion diverts commercial vehicles away from Snelling or I-94)
hot rod cruising on University
Spruce Tree buying up neighborhood, neighborhood is losing owner occupied property
More buses actually mean more parking need for the neighborhood-- need structured parking on E. Snelling/St. Anthony corner.
History of Midway employees parking in neighborhood
Pedestrian friendliness, easy bus transfers and access to/from stores, design that takes weather conditions into account

Upcoming:
Grid 8 Neighborhood Crime Meeting
Bethlehem Lutheran Church
436 Roy Street N.
May 18, 6:30 pm-8:30 pm

Crime trends in the area, prostitution at Qwest, noise, cruising, other summer issues.

-Invited to the table:
Union Park residents, Union Park District Council, St Paul Crime Prevention Coordinator, St Paul Western District Police Commander

Fantasy Baseball-- Asakusabashi Bazookas Team Report

2009-04-26T17:51:00.009-05:00

The chart shows a slow start for my Yahoo team, and a good start for my first ever real people that I meet CBS league. How long have I been graphing fantasy baseball performance? It goes back further than the chart. In 2005, someone stole my computer which had years of older data.

Team Report:
Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols and Johan Santana are dominating. No surprise there. But, generally Santana starts slow, so it is nice to see all three at their potential early. Nick Swisher, Jeff Francoeur and Jorge Posada all hover near .300. Can it last? Strong starts for Derek Lowe, Matt Capps and K-Rod.

Robinson Cano (26/71, .366, 5hr) hit a grand slam yesterday. Can I get Jimmy Rollins for him? (That was quick. Guess not.)

Pedro Sandoval (19/65, .292) raises average 46 points today with a 4/4, gets his first homerun and raises rbi total from 1 to 4. Is David Ortiz (15/69, .217, 0 hr) next? It's April, so a good day can mean a lot.

Adds:
4-26 Pick up Micah Hoffpauer, Cubs, 1B/OF-- he's the real deal if Derrek Lee is injured.
4-19 Pick up Joel Zumaya, Tigers, RP-- now off the DL, he could soon close games
4-19 Pick up Asdrubel Cabrera, Indians, 2B/SS-- best young infielder available (it is surprising how old most infielders are, these days)

Drops:
4-26 Clay Buchholz, Red Sox, SP-- could dominate, dropped because Masterson took over for Dice-K, Smoltz is up in May/June, window of opportunity closing
4-19 Jed Lowrie, Red Sox, SS-- injured
4-12 Phil Hughes, Yankees, SP-- nothing wrong with him, but can any pitcher be good in the new Yankee stadium?
3-30 Ryan Spilborghs, Rockies, OF-- seems to be losing PT to Dexter Fowler (or so, I thought)

Yahoo Team:
Nothing to brag about, so I will not.

Neighborhood Meetings, May 4 and May 18

2009-04-24T15:42:00.003-05:00

Upcoming Grid 8 Neighborhood Meetings
Please attend and help to publicize these neighborhood events.

1. Snelling/University/LRT Overview
Central Baptist Church, 420 Roy Street N.
Monday, May 4, 7-9pm

Centered around a general overview of LRT, including parking, development changes affecting the neighborhood, business mitigation, construction timeline, snow removal once the LRT is in, and traffic concerns on the Snelling/University corner. Include a Q&A session after the presentation.

Presenters:
Samantha Henningson, Ward 4
Mike Klassen, City of St. Paul
Robin Caufman, Met Council
Dan Soler and Hue Pham, Central Corridor Project Office
Ken Haider, Ramsey County

-Invited to the table:
Union Park community, Union Park District Council, Met Council, state representative (Snelling), Hamline Midway community, St Anthony community

2. Crime Meeting
Bethlehem Lutheran Church
436 Roy Street N.
May 18, 6:30 pm-8:30 pm

-Invited to the table:
Union Park residents, Union Park District Council, St Paul Crime Prevention Coordinator, St Paul Western District Police Commander

-Discussion:
Crime trends in the area, prostitution at Quest, noise, cruising, other summer issues.

Other Follow-up from our March 30 neighborhood meeting:
***Here is the link to the St Paul Vacant building list. It's easiest to "View by District" "District 13".

*** Saint Paul currently has no budget, so the proposed “traffic calming” meeting is postponed for now.

Contacts: Julie Oley Union Park District Council, info@unionparkdc.org, 645-6887

David Rasmussen
Grid 8 Representative
http://davetravels.blogspot.com/search/label/D13

Auction League-- Asakusabashi Bazookas

2009-04-01T10:35:00.014-05:00

On Thursday, I participate in a Fantasy baseball auction league with real, breathing people. This is a keeper league, so I am at a disadvantage, since many of the top players are already kept by other teams. This is my first auction/keeper league. Here's what happened. First, my strategy:

I want four elite first round/second round players, such as Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins at shortstop, Pujols, Cabrera, or Teixiera at 1B, Johan Santana at SP, and Ryan Braun or Carl Crawford at OF. I have budgeted $160 of $260 for these four players.

I have budgeted $25 for A-Rod or Aramis Ramirez at 3B, or maybe Roberts at 2B or V. Martinez at C, and $20 for Kemp or Abreu at OF. This totals $205.

For SP, I have $11 budgeted for Joba Chamberlain, Carpenter, Gallardo, Smoltz, Morrow, Bedard or rookies, if need be. (If I don't get Santana, then I have more money for pitchers such as Lester and Felix Hernandez.)
For CI, I have $10 for Davis, Blalock or Sandoval.
For C, I have $10 for both of Wieters and Shoppach.
For RP, I have $10 budgeted for Bell, Hanrahan, Devine, Ray and Motte. This totals $246.

For 2B, I hope for Cano, Kendrick or Johnson for $5.
For U, I hope for Stewart, Sandoval, Blalock or Thome for $5.
For MI, I am looking at Greene or Furcal for $1.
For OF, I am planning on getting Cruz, Maybin, Gomez, Choo, Jones, Snider, Swisher, Milledge, Hermida or Rasmus at the rate of 3 for $3. It all adds to $260.

I start by getting Albert Pujols at $42. My cheat sheet says $37, but I need to start a team with someone solid. My next target is Jose Reyes and I bid $43 for him, but someone else bids $44. Jimmy Rollins also goes for $44, so I will not have an elite shortstop. I get Johan Santana for $35. I bid on Miguel Cabrera, who I feel is the second best hitter overall. I get him for $35, and since I already have Pujols at 1B, he will play CI. I have spent $112.

Now, my target is Ryan Braun. He goes for $38. Crawford goes for $28, Soriano for $35, Beltran for $34, Manny Ramirez for $30, Holliday for $32, Lee for $31. Outfield is proving hard to fill.

My cheat sheet says David Ortiz is worth $26. I get him for $20. Most of the closers are protected, and I am not planning to get an expensive one, but end up bidding $26 for Francisco Rodriguez. I have spent $158.

More outfielders go. Kemp for $30, Guerrero for $25, Bay for $26, Suzuki for $23, Pence for $17, Victorino for $20. After getting outbid numerous times, I am surprised to get Corey Hart for $18. It is time to stop spending for a while.

I throw out the catcher, Matt Wieters, and he goes for $10, which is beyond my budget for a rookie who will start in the minors. A lot of players go for more than I expected-- Brian Roberts- $23, Jose Lopez- $12, Adam Jones- $11, Jason Werth- $13, Nelson Cruz- $7, Furcal- $17, A. Rod- $29, Gordon- $14, V. Martinez-$18. They might be worth it.

I am not planning to spend much more on starting pitching, but Jon Lester goes for the bargain price of $11, and Bill James 2009 Goldmine told me he was the same pitcher as Cole Hamels. Carlos Zambrano also goes for $11, another bargain. I really am not targeting Derek Lowe, but nonetheless get him for $5. I actually want Gallardo, who turns out to be a $1 pick, but I am out of roster spots when I bid $2 on Randy Johnson. My pitching will be strong and durable. (In my Yahoo league, I tend toward high K/IP types, but this team has 8 innings type pitchers, appropriate for a league with no innings limit.) I have spent $204.

I get Jorge Posada for $9. Robinson Cano goes for $10. (My book says $24, so I should be strong at 2B.) I splurge on another reliever and get Matt Capps for $11, a good value, though Mike Gonzalez goes later for $6.

"The book" says Pablo Sandoval is a catcher. He caught 11 games last year out of about 40 played. The commissioner decides that he qualifies, so I bid $10 on him. (Today, it was announced that he might actually qualify again next year, as he will be the only backup catcher on the Giants.) I have spent $244 and actually have more money remaining than most. I also have more positions to fill.

My outfield turns out to be Lastings Milledge at $5, Coco Crisp at $2, Willy Taveras at $1, and Ryan Spillborghs at $1. Khalil Greene and Jed Lowrie (another Bill James pick) fill SS and MI for $2 and $1. Hank Blalock (a Matthew Pouliot $1 recommendation) fills 3B. Injury replacement closers also go for $1 each: Carlos Villaneuva and Leo Nunez.

We snake draft a six man bench and I choose John Smoltz, Tommy Hanson, Jeff Francouer, Nick Swisher, Mark Teahen and Phil Hughes. (It was between Teahen and Skip Shumaker (another OF/2B dual eligible), but I listened to the Royals game Thursday, and Teahen has had a great Spring.)

I think about the draft a bit more, then drop Ryan Spillbourghs for Clay Buchholtz.

So, I end up with four legitimate stars with Pujols, Cabrera, Ortiz and Santana. Starting pitcher, catcher, 2B, and SP are all filled with strong players. The bench offers more solid starting pitching options, though none are immediately available. The outfield is fast, but weak. The infield offers power, but little speed. Swisher, who qualifies at OF and 1B, and Teahen, who is projected to play 2B and qualifies at CI and OF, can fill two offensive holes, most anywhere but catcher.

The CBS Sports projections say this team has excellent ERA and WHIP, but otherwise is an average team, with stronger pitching stats than hitting stats. It is a young team, so beating the projections is possible. But, the best team probably has some low dollar keepers from last year, such as B.J. Upton for $12, Evan Longoria for $7, or Nick Markakis for $7. Still, I had a good cheat sheet and did not make any huge blunders drafting. I hate paying for saves, but only ended up with two legitimate closers, so I think getting K-Rod and Capps was justified. I can try to compete for third place money with this team.

Asakusabashi Bazookas
Active Batters
Posada, Jorge C NYY
Sandoval, Pablo 1B SF (C)
Pujols, Albert 1B STL
Cano, Robinson 2B NYY
Blalock, Hank 1B TEX (3B)
Greene, Khalil SS STL
Lowrie, Jed SS BOS (MI)
Cabrera, Miguel 1B DET (CI)
Crisp, Coco CF KC
Francoeur, Jeff RF ATL
Hart, Corey C. RF MIL
Milledge, Lastings CF WAS
Taveras, Willy CF CIN
Ortiz, David DH BOS (U)
Active Pitchers
Johnson, Randy SP SF
Lester, Jon SP BOS
Lowe, Derek SP ATL
Santana, Johan SP NYM
Zambrano, Carlos SP CHC
Capps, Matt RP PIT
Nunez, Leo RP FLA
Rodriguez, Francisco J. RP NYM
Villanueva, Carlos SP MIL
Reserve Batters
Swisher, Nick CF NYY (also, 1B)
Teahen, Mark RF KC (also 2B, 3B)
Reserve Pitchers
Buchholz, Clay SP BOS
Hanson, Tommy SP ATL
Hughes, Phil SP NYY
Smoltz, John SP BOS

I ended up with Cabrera, Ortiz and Sandoval in both this league and my Yahoo league. Those must be my recommendations.

Neighborhood Meeting Results

2009-04-01T10:32:00.000-05:00

Notes from Julie Olney:

Three Meetings Suggested
1. Snelling/University/LRT Overview
-To occur ASAP on a Monday evening at Central Baptist, Bethlehem Lutheran,
or Hamline Midway Library
-Invited to the table:
Union Park community, Union Park District Council, Met Council, state
representative (Snelling), Hamline Midway community, St Anthony community
-Discussion:
Centered around a general overview of LRT, including parking, development
changes affecting the neighborhood, business mitigation, construction
timeline, snow removal once the LRT is in, and traffic concerns on the
Snelling/University corner. Include a Q&A session after the presentation.
***-Julie will email a current zoning map of Grid 8 and the vacant housing
list to residents before this meeting occurs.
***-Residents should collect a list of neighbors' contact info to make
communicating this and other upcoming meetings a more efficient process.

2. Traffic Calming
-To occur when it is warmer
-Invited to the table:
City transportation representative, City Council Ward 4 Representative,
Union Park residents, Union Park District Council
-Discussion:
Traffic calming options and extended parking permit options.

3. Crime Meeting
-To occur when it is warmer
-Invited to the table:
Union Park residents, Union Park District Council, St Paul Crime Prevention
Coordinator, St Paul Western District Police Commander
-Discussion:
Crime trends in the area, prostitution at Quest, noise, cruising, other
summer issues.

Neighborhood Pitch: Draft

2009-03-26T09:23:00.012-05:00

A Union Park Grid 8 meeting is planned for Monday March 30 at the Bethelehem Lutheran Church. These are my planned remarks. Any neighborhood input is appreciated.

David Rasmussen, Grid 8 Representative, david@unionparkdc.org

In the San Francisco Bay area, BART is sometimes elevated, sometimes below ground, and sometimes at ground level, but nowhere does it compete with traffic, so it goes up to 80 mph. SF/Oakland has the fifth most successful transit system in the United States because the rail system is fast, safe, reliable, easy to access and offers 44,000 parking spaces. The designers showed amazing foresight in 1960 as they developed a system that people with cars would choose to use. Even today, something like BART would be an amazing investment for the Twin Cities.

So, I went to Central Corridor rail meetings in 2005, joined the District Council as neighborhood representative, and suggested that the Snelling rail station be underground so that it would not compete with traffic, and for pedestrian safety, and that there should be parking. As an individual, I had little impact.

To join the District Council requires the signatures of residents, so when I knock on doors for the signatures, I try to ask what is important to residents. A few people always say “crime. “ Sometimes, I hear “pedestrian safety.” This year, I heard “permit parking.” Bus riders are one of the reasons many of us live on streets with permit parking, so if we are going to have rail, we should make parking available for rail users. I knocked on twenty doors on Roy, Fry and Herschel. Everyone I talked to signed the petition (1), and I felt confident about neighborhood support for a park and ride at Snelling Avenue.

In total, over 1000 people signed the petition, mostly people who use the park and ride to go to the State Fair. The signatures became part of the Supplement Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Central Corridor rail project, and copies went to the mayor and to the Metropolitan Council chair. I wanted it to be part of the plan for the City of Saint Paul, so I introduced the petition as a resolution at a District Council meeting. There was some support and others felt that more discussion was needed. A view I feel is wrong-headed was that this idea was in conflict with plans for “transit-oriented development.” How better to support transit than to make it accessible to thousands more people, I felt. The resolution was voted down.

Transit oriented development (TOD) is in the city plan and it is not about making transit more accessible. TOD puts tall buildings and high density development next to the rail. Portland is the model for TOD that Saint Paul is trying to copy. I have actually visited Portland and tried to get on the rail. Because parking is not available, I was unable to access the Portland rail. If there were any places to park, I could tell you more. Sustainlane.com says Portland has the 19th most successful transit system in the United States. This would be more impressive except that Minneapolis/Saint Paul ranks 21st without TOD. The graph (2) shows transit use for Minneapolis/St. Paul, Portland, and San Francisco/Oakland. The data suggests that parking impacts transit use more than TOD. Nonetheless, according to the Snelling Station Area plan, the Midway/Bus barn area is planned to become a TOD test site.

The rail is coming down University, like it or not. I do not think we have the power to stop it, even though we, as neighbors, saw issues with street parking on University well before University United, the District Councils, or the city acknowledged them. We still may have the power to help define what is meant by the “TOD test site” in the Station area plan for Midway Center. We also might still have power to put in parking, if that is what we want.

The Onion had an article,headlined “98% of Commuters favor transit for others”:
"With traffic congestion, pollution, and oil shortages all getting worse, now is the time to shift to affordable, efficient public transportation," APTA director Howard Collier said. "Fortunately, as this report shows, Americans have finally recognized the need for everyone else to do exactly that."

The Onion could also write an article headlined “98% of Advocates favor TOD outside of their neighborhoods.”
"With bike paths and TOD going in, the freeway becomes superfluous," American Association of Advocates director Howard Collier said. "Fortunately, as this report shows, activists have finally recognized the need for everyone else to give up their cars and live/work in TOD neighborhoods."

But, there is no reason to become cynical and to not work within the system. The Union Park District Council does an excellent job at negotiating conflicts to satisfy neighbors. Glen McCluskey, current Union Park president, and Jim Marti, past Union Park president, helped to negotiate with Health East to satisfy neighbors when new parking lots were built. Eric Mohlo, the chair of the Union Park Land Use Committee recently worked with neighbors near Lexington in a similar situation toward an agreement with Common Bond. When it is understood how neighborhoods feel, neighborhoods have been supported by the District Council.

So, now is an opportunity for the neighbors of Midway Center to express their opinions.
-- How do we feel about the undefined “Transit Oriented Development Test Site” at the Midway Center/ bus barn site in the station area plan?
-- Are we for transit user parking ramps (not yet in the station plan) near the rail at the Midway Center/bus barn site?
-- Do we want University Avenue to be a one lane street, as University United recommends?
-- Do we back the Snelling Station Area plan, as the Land Use Committee recommends, or does this plan need to be fleshed out further with more involvement from residents of Grid 8?

My proposal is attached (3), but more importantly, what would you like to see happen? As a neighbor recently said, “this plan is not Paris.” This plan is not San Francisco/Oakland , either. But, we can do better.

Please let me know your ideas, or if you want to present your ideas in a public forum, attend the Union Park District Council meeting, Wednesday April 1, 7 p.m., Concordia University, in the Library/Theater complex, Room 218.

Footnotes:
(1) Petition, August, 2008:

We support a 1000 slot park and ride at the bus barn site and under Midway Center (Snelling Avenue and Saint Anthony Blvd./Snelling Avenue and University Avenue) to serve State Fair goers, the I94 bus route, the 84 bus route, the 21/53 bus route, the 16/50 bus route, the 144 bus route, the future Central Corridor rail, a future Snelling Avenue rail line, and small businesses and local residents who lose parking with construction of the rail. This park and ride should serve parkers and those transferring between buses with safe pedestrian and bicycle access under the very busy streets of Snelling Avenue and University Avenue, as Snelling Avenue in this neighborhood has the highest traffic accident rate in the state. Ideally, the park and ride will exit under Snelling Avenue, directly to I-94 ramps to avoid further traffic congestion on Snelling Avenue. The park and ride does not preclude development of the bus barn site and the neighboring lot, because the park and ride can be relocated below ground.

(2) Effectiveness of Transit Oriented Development:

Portland is the model for transit oriented development (TOD)
San Francisco/Oakland (SFO) supplies 44,000 parking spaces and per the advocates does not have TOD

(3) Proposed Grid 8 Neighborhood Resolutions to Union Park District Council:
The Metropolitan Council should pursue marketing toward a post-RD Management Midway Center/bus barn era. Issues to be fleshed out in order to maximize the long-term benefit to the community and the selling price of the area include:
1) Green spaces
2) Enclosed transit station at Snelling and Saint Anthony intersection with parking ramp, bus transfer stations, taxi stands
3) Pedestrian and bike routes to the transit station and local bus/rail stops (21/53/94/84/16/50)
4) Improved freeway access to Midway Center/Target complex-- get them there, get them out design to support regional use of the area, but to not further congest Snelling.

The Grid 8 neighborhood should be offered the opportunity to vet University United proposals prior to Union Park District Council approval, and Grid 8 should become a “go to” participant to proactively develop further proposals toward refining the Snelling station area plan and the appropriate city plans for the area.

Snelling Avenue Light Rail Station, continued

2009-03-12T21:08:00.018-05:00

Have you ever shopped at Midway Shopping area? Why or why not?: Live Journal Discussion
(My wife posted the question. I did not participate here.) There are substantial differences between the vision expressed by the community (above) and the vision expressed by Brian McMahon of University United to the D13 land use committee.

Do we want collaborative marketing between Met Council and RD Management? Everyone wants to see development, and marketing is certainly a desirable goal to validate concepts in the Station area plan and elsewhere. However, given that RD Management's business model may be incongruent with City of Saint Paul's plans for the area, why not do marketing internal to the Met Council, toward agreements with other developers? Now is indeed the time to do marketing. But, under no circumstances should extensions or further agreements with RD Management be signed, given the history. The best outcome is to encourage RD Management to sell to a developer with a different mission.

The Metropolitan Council should pursue marketing toward a post-RD Management Midway Center/bus barn era. Issues to be fleshed out in order to maximize the long-term benefit to the community and the selling price of the area include:
1) Green spaces
2) Enclosed transit station at Snelling and Saint Anthony intersection with parking ramp, bus transfer stations, taxi stands
3) Pedestrian and bike routes to the transit station and all local bus/rail stops (21/94/84/16/50)
4) Improved freeway access to Midway Center/Target complex-- get them there, get them out design to support regional use of the area, but not further congest Snelling.

A "Transit Oriented Development Demonstration Site, " as proposed in the Snelling Station Area Plan (Section 6) lacks the foundation of public understanding and support.

My Snelling/University Rail Station Input from January contains some supporting data regarding transit: Google Docs

Bazooka Kazoos

2009-03-02T11:13:00.028-06:00

This year, I will have two fantasy baseball teams, including my first real league with real people. Today, I draft my Yahoo team. (Okay, the Yahoo people are real, but they seem less so, since I will never meet them in person.)

I log in and learn that I draft 8th. The top five are pretty well established, so Hanley Ramirez, Joses Reyes, Alex Rodriguez, David Wright, and Albert Pujols will go to other teams. I rank the players who will possibly make it to me-- Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Ryan Howard. My decision is made when Grady Sizemore is chosen seventh.

Miguel Cabrera is my first round pick, chosen for his dual 1B/3B eligibility. Jimmy Rollins (SS) goes. (Brian Roberts goes!) I have decided on Soriano, but am left with Evan Longoria (3B). I am thinking Santana might be available in the next round based on injury concerns, but Santana and Lincecum leave the board shortly. Chase Utley (2B) goes leaving me wondering why I did not take him.

C. C. Sabathia (SP), Dustin Pedroria (2B), Brandon Phillips (2B) and Cole Hamels (SP) are drafted, so I pick David Ortiz (U) next. It is a power heavy lineup, but power is rare, so I have to get it now.

I have already punted SS with the top three options gone with the start of round two. For 2B, I am thinking Chone Figgins or Ian Stewart.

Roy Halladay should last until the next round. I had planned to draft two starting pitchers in the first five rounds, but that plan has been pre-empted. I will not take any relief pitchers until after the 15th round. Matt Kemp (OF) offers speed and Nick Markakis is off the board, so now seems the time to take him.

Halladay and Haren both go, so I reach for Francisco Liriano (SP). Catchers and relief pitchers are being drafted, but I want Chone Figgins (2B/3B), since I figure him to offer the same speed as Brian Roberts. Chris Davis and Chipper Jones go; both are bargains.

Jay Bruce (OF) is near the top of the board, so I take a second outfielder. I take Joba Chamberlain (SP/RP) in the 8th round.

Matt Wieters is now at the top of the catcher rankings, so round 9 seems the time to take him. How late can I hold off on Pablo Sandoval to cover catcher until Wieters becomes a major leaguer?

Jon Lester (SP) goes. No one will take Derek Jeter, who has been at the top of the board for the last couple of rounds. He is ranked as the #5 SS per Rotoworld, so I take him to fill out the infield. David Price is now at the top of my list. When he is drafted, I am left with Chris Young (SP). Erik Bedard(SP) is my 12th round pick. I have missed the top pitchers, but still can find starters almost as good, but not pegged for as many innings.

Joey Votto and three outfielders-- Nelson Cruz, Jayson Werth and Justin Upton, all players that I like are near the top of the board. At least one of the three outfielders should make it to the next round, so I pick Pablo Sandoval (C, 1B, 3B), then Justin Upton(OF).

Chris Carpenter and Jon Smoltz are now near the top of my list. Rumor has it that Smoltz may not start until the all-star game, so I go with Chris Carpenter (SP).

Heath Bell is my pick, but he goes two spots ahead of me. I choose Matt Lindstrom (RP) as my first reliever. The next rounds go to Frank Francisco (RP), Joey Devine (RP) and George Sherrill (RP). I miss Ian Stewart and Willy Tavares in the 18th (before and after Devine). (Travis Hafner goes in the 19th.)

I feel I need another SP and another OF. I settle on Duchscherer as the pitcher, then draft Coco Crisp (OF) as the base stealing fourth outfielder. Duchscherer goes, so I pick Fausto Carmona (SP) with the last pick.

Two messages on the board say that the computer prevented people from participating. Four teams look to be more solid than mine. This was the first time available for "winners league" this year, so possibly some ringers are playing.

This team has more power than any I have drafted in a while. The pitching is filled with injury risks, but a call-up or two can fill in when pitchers go down. ERA and K/IP will be solid.

My strength is putting the best team on the field every day, and for example, benching Jay Bruce versus left-handed pitching. Unless my competitors are equally conscientious, I should win my Yahoo league for the third year in a row. But, it will not happen merely on the team drafted today.

2009 Bill James Hitting Projections HR-R-RBI-SB-AVG (from Fangraphs.com)
1B/3B Cabrera 37-103-130-2-.316
2B/3B Figgins 5-101-56-43-.287
3B Longoria 37-102-116-9-.280
SS Jeter 14-102-73-14-.307
C/1B/3B Sandoval 17-90-103-0-.320
OF Kemp 19-96-80-32-.311
OF Bruce 35-94-90-12-.296
OF J. Upton 22-79-69-6-.263
U Ortiz 37-98-119-1-.288
C Wieters 24-68-85-2-.311
OF Crisp 9-74-53-22-.279
The first nine hitters add to 223-865-836-119-.296, which is too good to be true, and wins most categories. CHONE, ZIPS and Oliver, on average, say 194-762-746-113-.285, which would not win any leagues.

2009 Bill James Pitching Projections W-ERA-S-K/IP-WHIP (from Fangraphs.com)
SP Liriano 11-3.62-0-171/166-1.28
SP Chamberlain* 10-3.19-0-160/143-1.21
SP C. Young 10-3.37-0-137/153-1.20
SP Bedard 5-3.72-0-86/89-1.31
SP C. Carpenter 3-3.34-0-36/45-1.18
SP Carmona 8-4.17-0-88/141-1.41
RP Lindstrom 3-4.51-27-54/61-1.54
RP Francisco 4-3.55-26-69/61-1.33
RP Devine 4-3.01-21-72/58-1.22
RP Sherrill 4-3.42-3-60/53-1.32
* No Bill James projection, so I used Rotoauthority projections for Chamberlain.

The pitchers add to 62-3.59-77-933/970-1.29. The projections do not have these pitchers lasting through the season, but if they did, they would be fine. ERA and K/IP are excellent. WHIP is too high, though if Carmona is not better, he is dropped.

So, in summary, the hitting looks great, but more pitchers (280 innings worth) are needed. To compare to previous years, check the 2007 draft and results.

Update: Revised Bill James projections have Eric Bedard pitching more innings. So, the latest pitching projections are 70-3.65-77-1048/1095-1.29. So, without anything changing, we are down to 155 missing IP.

Yahoo Style Draft

2009-02-18T15:09:00.004-06:00

I have my cheat sheet put together, utilizing the average draft position spreadsheet found here. I added some projections. (Actually, I chose Bill James.) Voila. A cheat sheet.

Longoria and Quentin will not go this late in your Yahoo draft, as Yahoo pre-selects them higher than Mock Draft Central. Pablo Santoval got away in the 16th round. He was eligible for catcher in this format. (He is the potential big fish that got away.) Nonetheless, if I do this well in early March when I actually draft, I will be quite happy. The Mock Draft Central software says this team has a poor average, but with daily transactions this team can do well.

Player Team Acquired
1B/3B/Util Chris Davis TEX R6 P6
1B Joey Votto CIN R7 P5
2B Brian Roberts BAL R5 P5
3B Evan Longoria TB R3 P5
SS Jose Reyes NYM R1 P5
C Matt Wieters BAL R10 P6
OF Carlos Quentin CHW R4 P6
OF Hunter Pence HOU R8 P6
OF Jay Bruce CIN R12 P6
OF Justin Upton ARI R18 P6
DH Travis Hafner CLE R19 P5
SP Johan Santana NYM R2 P6
SP Josh Beckett BOS R9 P5
SP Carlos Zambrano CHC R13 P5
SP Randy Johnson SF R14 P6
SP Chris Young SD R16 P6
SP Erik Bedard SEA R20 P6
SP John Smoltz BOS R21 P5
RP Joba Chamberlain NYY R11 P5
RP B.J. Ryan TOR R15 P5
RP Heath Bell SD R17 P5
RP Joey Devine OAK R22 P6

Life Goal: Achieved!

2009-02-06T13:25:00.006-06:00

When I started Bert Records in the late 1990's, the first question people asked was "Why Bert?" Often people speculated that it had to do with Sesame Street or the engineer depicted in Scott Adams' comic. Sometimes, Hall-of -Famer-to-be Bert Blyleven would be mentioned. My response to these guesses: "No, No, No."

This led to the second question, "Okay then, who is Bert?" For purposes of suspense, I skip now to the third question, "Why Bert?"

"I call it Bert Records after my Uncle Bert because he has a happy dog. I can think of no better measure of contentedness than having a happy dog." (This still holds true today.)

Bert Records was a record label that by design broke even financially, and if I had felt there was a financial opportunity out there, I might have made Bert Records bigger, and pursued things on a larger scale, but the overall essence of Bert Records, at least to me, was always contentedness. Through Bert Records, I wanted to achieve contentedness. Thus, I named my little enterprise 'Bert Records' because my Uncle Bert had a happy dog.

So here we are, toward the end of the first decade of the 2000's. Monica and I throw a small party. Lots of musicians show up, talk, make up songs and have have a good time. One of them (a non-drinker, no less) is too tired to go home and spends the night in our basement on the day bed. We go to breakfast down the street and he tells me, "I am jealous of you. You have the happiest dog."

By the best standard I can can come up with, I have achieved my goal of contentedness.

Life Goal #1. Achieved.

Transit Data

2009-02-04T16:02:00.007-06:00

From: sustainlane.com

MSP 2005
2520000 population
28140000 miles/day freeway
23830000 miles/day arterial
383000000 miles/year public transportation
rank 21 in metro transit ridership in 2008
0.42 transit miles/day/person, 1.98% transit miles

Portland 2005
1730000 population
13620,000 miles/day freeway
13850,000 miles/day arterial
466000000 miles/year public transportation
rank 19 in metro transit ridership in 2008
0.74 transit miles/day/person 4.44% transit miles

SFO 2005
4140000 population
50000,000 miles/day freeway
31100,000 miles/day arterial
2283000000 miles/year public transportation
1.51 transit miles/day/person, 7.16% transit miles
rank 5 Oakland, rank 6 San Francisco in metro transit ridership in 2008

So, Minneapolis-St.Paul can learn from Portland. Both Minneapolis-St. Paul and Portland can learn from the Bay area.

BART has a total of 45,890 on-site parking spaces. The system normally provides about 340,000 rides a day. (May 2, 2007)

Toys

2009-01-27T15:31:00.003-06:00

Amazon is announcing its second generation Kindle next month. What, you may ask, is a Kindle? A Kindle is an electronic book reader. It uses e-ink, which looks more like ink than like the pixels of a computer screen. E-ink is actually easier to read in bright light, and is easy on the eyes. What's it good for? Its primary value is its subscriptions-- books, magazines, newspapers. Subscribe to the Wall Street Journal for $10 per month. Subscribe to the San Francisco Chronicle for $6 per month. Buy the latest Douglas Hofstadter book for $11. Monica likes it because it eliminates "clutter". I thrive in old newspapers, but with the Kindle, old newspapers are actually easier to read due to their indexed, searchable electronic format. The really nice feature is for when you are not at home. The newspapers still find you over the Sprint wireless network, which I can vouch works in rural Iowa.

My other favorite toy is the Nokia 800, a handheld WiFi device that works as a Skype phone, Internet browser, Internet radio player and MP3 device. WiFi is at the Twins games. I can check the lineup even when they are blaring commercials through the Metrodome. WiFi is in my house. I can carry the Nokia from room to room and listen to KALX Berkeley all of the time. (MLB uses an evil proprietary format for their audio broadcasts, or I would use the Nokia to listen to baseball games as well.)

Kittens with strings? No. These are two of my favorite things.

Another Draft

2009-01-26T15:19:00.002-06:00

Eligibility is five games at a position for this mock draft.

C Victor Martinez CLE R7 P6
C Kelly Shoppach CLE R17 P6
1B Miguel Cabrera DET R1 P6 yes he can also play 3B
2B Chase Utley PHI R2 P7
2B Rickie Weeks MIL R21 P6
SS Rafael Furcal LA R6 P7
3B Chipper Jones ATL R4 P7
OF Carlos Quentin CHW R3 P6
OF Torii Hunter ANA R9 P6
OF Jayson Werth PHI R10 P7
OF Conor Jackson ARI R19 P6 also eligible for 1B/utility
DH Travis Hafner CLE R15 P6 having Hafner/Shoppach/Martinez if rosters can be adjusted daily means 162 games with solid catcher/utility options
SP Josh Beckett BOS R5 P6
SP Rich Harden CHC R11 P6
SP Ben Sheets MIL R12 P7
SP Erik Bedard SEA R16 P7
SP John Smoltz BOS R18 P7
RP Joba Chamberlain NYY R8 P7 actually, he will start
RP Heath Bell SD R13 P6
RP Mike Gonzalez ATL R14 P7
RP Manny Corpas COL R20 P7

Someone picked up Chris Carpenter late... a good idea.

Frommer and Mass Transit

2009-01-23T16:16:00.002-06:00

Will transit be a priority for the new administration? It should be, but the early signals say no. (Link above to the Frommer blog.)

Another Mock Draft that gets the lowest of ratings

2009-01-23T15:40:00.010-06:00

The site allows three free mock drafts per week. Here's what happened today:

Final Roster
Pos Name Team Pick
C Victor Martinez CLE R8 P5
C Matt Wieters BAL R9 P6
1B Miguel Cabrera DET R1 P6... was sure he played more than 17 games at 3B last year. NOPE.
CI Lance Berkman HOU R2 P5... was sure he still qualified for the OF. NOPE. A mistake.
2B Brandon Phillips CIN R3 P6... third round is a bargain
MI Kelly Johnson ATL R22 P5
SS Jason Bartlett TB R23 P6... Kept waiting for a bargain, then punted to the last pick
3B Chipper Jones ATL R5 P6... if he plays, he's great
OF Carlos Quentin CHW R4 P5... a bargain
OF Jay Bruce CIN R11 P6... a bargain, though 11th round I would have drafted Figgins (no bench was allowed, Berkman does not qualify for OF)
OF Nelson Cruz TEX R15 P6
OF Willy Taveras CIN R16 P5... thought this team needed someone who can steal a base
OF Justin Upton ARI R19 P6... potential top 20 OF
DH David Ortiz BOS R6 P5... no one wanted a pure utility player/ rich man's Travis Hafner
SP Josh Beckett BOS R7 P6... first SP; it's unlike me to draft wins
SP Matt Cain SF R12 P5
SP Ben Sheets MIL R13 P6
SP Randy Johnson SF R14 P5... no one wants the old man
SP Erik Bedard SEA R17 P6... R3 last year
SP John Smoltz BOS R18 P5... R7 last year
RP Joba Chamberlain NYY R10 P5... hopefully he is a starter
RP Manny Corpas COL R20 P5... cheap closer
RP George Sherrill BAL R21 P6.... cheap closer

Again, the projection system hates this team. Ranks it 9/10. The power numbers, ERA, WHIP and W look fine to me, but not to the Mock Draft Central projection board. The way these drafts are going, it looks like Matt Cain, Randy Johnson, Erik Bedard and John Smoltz land on my actual team, as do Jay Bruce, Justin Upton and the cheapest of the actual closers.

Picking 6th was nice. Lots of time to think about the next pick. I thought one of the consensus top 5 would fall through, but nope. Picking first was very nice, allowing plenty of time to plan and strategize the next two picks. Picking 10th was hardest.

B4Bashi

2009-01-21T12:28:00.015-06:00

I participated in Mock Drafts today, my first ever. Off the bat, I ended up with Hanley Ramirez, Evan Longoria and Johan Santana. The computer says this is a tenth place team. Ha. I say. Yes, the team lacks a solid 1B, unless David Ortiz were to become eligible. But, my best advice is to punt a position, when the good choices are gone. There will still be good stopgaps at the end of the draft and either a good new player will emerge when the season starts or someone will drop a good established player based on a poor start.

There are two injury risks at SP-- Randy Johnson and John Smoltz. If they are not injured they are solid, so what's the problem there? The only problem is that projection systems assume I would stay pat with a player who does not play. Like all of my real fantasy teams, this team leads any league in Ks.

One of the league members thinks I drafted Jay Bruce too highly. Could be. And, I would bench him against LHP. But, power is rare post steroids. I like drafting OF late, because OFers are so easily replaceable, but I felt Bruce and Abreu belonged in R6/R7.

Closers with good ratios are drafted 13, 15, 20 and 21. I see no reason to draft closers any earlier.

The draft format (having David Ortiz in the U spot) prevented me from taking Travis Hafner late, but I would do that in a real draft. This draft assumed no bench, which I find odd.

I also typically do not participate in two catcher leagues. I took Posada in R14 because no one else seemed to want him.

I ended up taking marginal Rockies late. I am not so smart as to view them as anything but placeholders. But, if I am in a pinch and not sure who to take, why not someone who plays in Coors Field? For a while, I thought having Helton/Baker at 1B was pretty smart, but I am sure someone like Matt LaPorta will turn out to be a better 1B power source.

Here is a draft process you might consider. Print out the top several pages of Average Draft Position, then highlight your sleepers-- the players you think are being taken too late. Also, highlight all of the projected closers past round ten. When your turn comes around, unless Bobby Abreu is staring you in the face when you least expect it, take the players you highlighted.

Anyway, I hope my real Yahoo team turns out as good. I found the exercise to be fun.

Final Roster
Pos Name Team Pick
C Joe Mauer MIN R5 P1
C Jorge Posada NYY R14 P12
1B Todd Helton COL R18 P12
2B Howie Kendrick ANA R8 P12
2B Jeff Baker COL R19 P1
2B Clint Barmes COL R22 P12
SS Hanley Ramirez FLA R1 P1
3B Evan Longoria TB R2 P12
OF Jay Bruce CIN R6 P12
OF Bobby Abreu NYY R7 P1
OF Nelson Cruz TEX R11 P1
OF Justin Upton ARI R16 P12
OF Gary Sheffield DET R23 P1
DH David Ortiz BOS R4 P12
SP Johan Santana NYM R3 P1
SP Felix Hernandez SEA R9 P1
SP Matt Cain SF R10 P12
SP Randy Johnson SF R12 P12
SP John Smoltz BOS R17 P1
RP Matt Lindstrom FLA R13 P1
RP Joey Devine OAK R15 P1
RP George Sherrill BAL R20 P12
RP Joel Zumaya DET R21 P1... injured

I tried again and had technical problems, and problems with focus, but ended up with this team:
R1 P11 SP Johan Santana, NYM
R2 P2 OF Josh Hamilton, TEX
R3 P11 SP Tim Lincecum, SF
R4 P2 1B Adrian Gonzalez, SD... tough for him to repeat elite numbers at Safeco
R5 P11 SP Brandon Webb, ARI
R6 P2 2B Dan Uggla, FLA
R7 P11 OF Jay Bruce, CIN ... probably too early
R8 P2 C Kelly Shoppach, CLE... too early
R9 P11 3B Edwin Encarnacion, CIN... opposite of Adrian Gonzalez, would not be a good pick at Safeco
R10 P2 SS Troy Tulowitzki, COL
------------------------AUTO PICKS FROM MY LIST, but not my actual choices ...
R11 P11 3B Mark Reynolds, ARI
R12 P2 OF Conor Jackson, ARI [1B]
R13 P11 DH Travis Hafner, CLE
R14 P2 RP Matt Capps, PIT
R15 P11 RP Matt Lindstrom, FLA
R16 P2 RP Joey Devine, OAK
R17 P11 RP Joel Hanrahan, WAS
-------------------------COMPLETELY COMPUTER GENERATED past here...
R18 P2 OF Hideki Matsui, NYY
R19 P11 SS Jason Bartlett, TB
R20 P2 OF Fred Lewis, SF.... Someone picks Justin Upton here; I would pick him several rounds ago
R21 P11 SS Edgar Renteria, SF

What to say? First, the good advice to avoid pitchers toward the beginning of drafts is being taken too seriously. If you see Lincecum at the back end of the third round, you have to take him. Santana/Lincecum/Webb should bring big points to W/ERA/K/WHIP.

Secondly, with Doumit, Soto, Weiters, Napoli and Shoppach, there is a second tier of top catchers. No need to panic pick on a catcher, when middle infield is tougher to fill.

Finally, despite all the problems, the prediction program put this team in a tie for fourth. But, even with the obvious flaws, particularly 1B, I take the first team over the second.

Movie/Cultural Review: Slumdog Millionaire, Gran Torino

2009-01-15T10:20:00.010-06:00

Slumdog Millionaire just swept four Golden Globes. Clint Eastwood's Gran Torino is a film of the same calibre. These are movies you will see or at least should see. My creative writing teacher, Stan Whitehead, believes them to be the best movies since his death a few years ago.

Slumdog is organized around a television game show. It is a lower-caste Indian Forrest Gump. Slumdog has Wizard of Oz moments where fantasy becomes reality and black and white gives way to color. The surreal "color" is why Slumdog won the award. The film does not try to convince you that an uneducated slum-dweller can win a trivia contest. That is its charm. Instead, it suggests that all of us can dream, and that may be enough. Stan Whitehouse approves of this movie because it is not about some lucky contestant on a game show and contains passages of pure imagination.

Gran Torino is a story where Clint Eastwood plays a bitter, racist dying veteran just after the death of his wife. In one scene, Clint needs help from his scrawny neighbor to pull the empty freezer up the stairs and out of his basement. In another Gran Torino scene, Clint is playing tough guy, beating gang members into submission, just like in 1970's films. If this seems plausible, then you miss the point. In the end, Clint learns to find more commonality with the Hmong "gooks" next store than with his family. Because of the "made up" parts, Stan Whitehead gives thumbs up to this film. Great film and great writing must show the impossible.

Now, for the cultural part of the review. In both movies, key characters die. In Slumdog Millionaire, upon the death, the character says "God is Great." I will not reveal the Gran Torino death except to say that the sentiment is the same. It is not clear whether either movie has a happy ending; there is too much sacrifice. So, do these movies indicate that American culture is now the same as kamikaze Al Quaeda terrorist culture? Why do we assume that we were ever very different? Anyway, our ability to relate to others, to express ourselves and to imagine is what makes us human.

From the Onion

2009-01-11T17:52:00.000-06:00

Report: 98 Percent Of U.S. Commuters Favor Public Transportation For Others.

From A History of BART

2009-01-11T17:48:00.000-06:00

Between 1957 and 1962, engineering plans were developed for a system that would usher in a new era in rapid transit. Electric trains would run on grade-separated right-of-ways, reaching maximum speeds of 75-80 mph, averaging perhaps 45 mph, including station stops. Advanced transit cars, with sophisticated suspensions, braking and propulsion systems, and luxurious interiors, would be strong competition to "King Car " in the Bay Area. Stations would be pleasant, conveniently located, and striking architectural enhancements to their respective on-line communities.

This Idea Paid for by the "Clean" Coal Lobby

2009-01-07T14:53:00.004-06:00

The first things chemical engineers learn are the mass balance and the energy balance. In a closed system, assuming no nuclear reactions, the number of each type of atoms remains the same and joules of energy remain the same. This bit of chemical engineering is the foundation of all environmental science, though from my perspective, I would say all environmental science is a subset of chemical engineering. Environmental dogma such as "reduce, reuse , recycle" is actually basic engineering design, though no engineer would ignore costs and many "environmentalists" do.

When coal is burned, a chemical engineer sees carbon reacting with oxygen to form carbon dioxide. No atoms are gained or lost in the closed system. Energy is conserved as the potential energy of the coal (prior to combustion) plus the potential energy of the oxygen that is burned equals heat of combustion of the coal plus potential energy of the ash plus potential energy of the carbon dioxide. We see more carbon dioxide in the air, which will contribute to climate change.

Research is ongoing to convert carbon dioxide from coal burning plants into algae that produces oil. But, why must the coal be combusted? Instead, burn algae and recycle the carbon dioxide from the combustion of the algae back into producing more heat energy and more algae. Use algae to reduce the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Do not continue to burn coal, and with your process which can not be 100% efficient, create more climate change.

But, chemical engineers have a second question. What about the energy balance? Let's say we burn algae and capture the carbon to make more algae. We are running a power plant by capturing the heat of combustion of the fuel. From what source does the energy come from to make more algae? One assumes that the answer must be solar energy, and that is fine. But, if that is the case, let's put our algae burning facility in the tropics, rather than next to Mt. Coal.

We can assume the new Secretary of Energy, Nobel prize winner, Stephen Chu, understands mass and energy balances well enough to counter, at least intellectually, the fraud of the "clean coal" lobby.

How to Conduct An Election

2009-01-06T18:20:00.012-06:00

I have long supported Instant Runoff Voting, where a person ranks candidates from most favorite to least favorite. Perhaps a third party candidate, whom people assume has no chance is actually the voter's preference. Third parties, primarily Dean Barkley, Independence Party, got 17% of the vote for Minnesota Senate, with Al Franken and Norm Coleman splitting the rest of the the votes to within 0.01%. I am uncertain if Barkley took more votes from Franken or from Coleman, and it is not his fault, but he certainly mucked the counting.

Let's say run-off voting occurred. The way the election went, with Coleman demonizing Franken and Franken demonizing Coleman, one can assume that Barkley was the first or second choice of most voters with knowledge of him. Put another way, people's least favorite candidate, based purely on ideology was certainly Franken or Coleman. If Barkley got many third place votes, it was for lack of name recognition.

Would Barkley have won with IRV?

He certainly would have received more than 17% of the first place vote, since many Independents probably thought they were throwing away their vote by voting for the candidate third in the opinion polls, and with IRV, your actual preference counts, so you are no longer throwing away your vote. Let's say Barkley gets 34% to Franken at 33% and Coleman at 33%. Barkley likely receives enough second place votes to win, though it is hard to guess whether Franken would be in third place and his votes would be thrown out and replaced with Franken voter's second preference or Coleman would be declared at third place and his votes apportioned between Franken and Barkley per the preferences of Coleman voters. Still, it is very likely that Barkley would have won 50+% in the second round of the instant runoff process.

Let's say Barkely does not win with IRV in place and that people vote just as they did in 2008. Then, 17% of the actual votes cast in this election would be reapportioned to either Franken or Coleman. More votes would count.

Revoting now is not fair, as many fewer voters would participate. So, we will accept that Minnesota's election laws are currently flawed since they allow third party "spoilers" to participate without counting the second place choice of third party voters.

It may seem an odd time to suggest this, as a tie between second and third is as likely as a tie between first and second, but instant runoff voting is the only way to make elections with three or more candidates fair. If I voted for Barkley with a preference for Coleman over Franken, how should I feel?

I understand if Coleman voters are unhappy with the outcome of the 2008 election, but if I am a Barkley voter, I think my reasons for being unhappy are more valid. Despite Ventura's win a while back, election laws are rigged against third parties.

But, one thing I am happy about. In Minnesota, they follow their voting laws, count their votes, and if there is bias against your favorite major party candidate, it is more likely in your imagination (perhaps you read yellow journalism) than in Minnesota's process.

Wall Street Journal End Days?

2009-01-06T14:02:00.021-06:00

My bias in a newspaper is "facts" and "sound editorial arguments." Give me a full page because it generally takes that long to describe a subject with completeness. The New York Times Magazine article about VaR and the financial meltdown was illuminating. The longer section one news articles in the Wall Street Journal also tend to be excellent. (I know because I subscribe.) No matter what biases you come in with, you will find them confirmed and refuted. Television newscasts can never compete with these types of articles because they would take thirty minutes for a newscaster to read.

Conversely, newspapers do a poor job at competing with television at "sound bite" journalism. A sentence or a headline, even well written, is likely to be either misleading or wrong. A television screen showing Obama saying, " I propose $310 billion in tax cuts," conveys more information than the headline "Obama proposes $310 billion in tax cuts." So, it is critically important for newspapers to be very clear about exactly whom is saying exactly what, where, and when.

Lately, the Wall Street Journal has gotten beat up in the blogs. A front page story,"Google Wants Its Own Fast Track on the Web" inspired Lawrence Lessig, who was prominently quoted, to write "The Madeup Dramas of the Wall Street Journal".

Monday, WSJ got beat up for an editorial about the Minnesota Senate Recount. In "Did the Wall Street Journal Fire Their Fact Checkers," Nate Silver counters baseless assertion after baseless assertion with facts. Others weigh in, such as The Minnesota Independent and a member of the canvassing board: Daily Planet. Granted, the opinion page of the Wall Street Journal has always been as "fair and balanced" as Bill O'Reilly on Fox News. Everyone knows you can not quote Bill O'Reilly, but if you say "Wall Street Journal" rather than "Wall Street Journal Editorial Page" your "facts" have some credibility.

More damning on Monday, WSJ gots its facts wrong on page one, making the same error as ABC's The Note. See "ABC's Karl uncritically quoted Cornyn's baseless claim that Schumer "believes" Franken "should be seated without an election certificate" from Media Matters. (I am not sure why Media Matters does not indicate that WSJ reports the same Schumer "quote". My guess would be that ABC borrowed the false quote from WSJ, but the reverse could be true instead.)

Rupert Murdoch now owns both Fox News and the Wall Street Journal.

Maybe the era of Wall Street Journal as a credible newspaper is nearing its end. We will know for sure if we see fewer long form news articles and more unsubstantiated headline "soundbites." Full page news articles about Lawrence Lessig's Creative Commons and the Minnesota recount would be one way WSJ could choose to redeem itself. So far on these topics, WSJ provides short articles, ones that might as well be read on television.

Fallen Ideology

2009-01-03T13:11:00.020-06:00

Per poll numbers, George W. Bush is the worst president in American history. His flaws are numerous:

disregard for facts and science
disregard for law-- American and International
put cronies in charge
war mongering
rewarded failure (Eric Shinseki was fired. George Tenet, received the Presidential Medal of Freedom)
et cetera

But, today, I am going to defend George W. Bush and his fellow conservatives. They were determined, consistent and principled. They tested their ideology of limited government to its breaking point. Conservatives truly believed that unregulated energy would bring down costs, except that market manipulation by Enron caused energy costs to increase. Conservatives truly believed that banks would act in their own self-interest and not leverage themselves into collapse. Conservatives truly believed that extravagant spending in Iraq would lead to "freedom."

Conservatives come with conviction. John Kennedy Toole, author of 'Confederacy of Dunces,' distrusted government more than any liberal could. R. Crumb did not move to France because the United States was too conservative. Just the opposite. Anti-communist elitists, such as Ayn Rand and Edward Teller, were deeply troubled by leftist ideology, and for valid reasons. Government should be limited. The only question is how limited? George W. Bush provided a great public service to a country that was divided about the role of government and where the limits should be, by testing the limits.

George W. Bush was only inept when judged by results. He behaved consistently with purpose and the arrogance of Napoleon Bonaparte. Bush could have retained his minimalist ideology of government, behaved ethically, hired competent people and let them do their jobs, followed the laws of the land, benefited from the views of the scientific community, and history would have regarded him well, like President Dwight D. Eisenhower. But, Bush slavishly followed his anti-regulatory, pro-war ideology to disaster, ignoring all signals to the contrary.

We have entered a new and more non-ideological world. Unfortunately, the premise that government should be no larger than is necessary may have died through George W. Bush's slavishly ideological competence.

Merry Christmas

2008-12-22T14:24:00.003-06:00