B4Bashi

I participated in Mock Drafts today, my first ever. Off the bat, I ended up with Hanley Ramirez, Evan Longoria and Johan Santana. The computer says this is a tenth place team. Ha. I say. Yes, the team lacks a solid 1B, unless David Ortiz were to become eligible. But, my best advice is to punt a position, when the good choices are gone. There will still be good stopgaps at the end of the draft and either a good new player will emerge when the season starts or someone will drop a good established player based on a poor start.

There are two injury risks at SP-- Randy Johnson and John Smoltz. If they are not injured they are solid, so what's the problem there? The only problem is that projection systems assume I would stay pat with a player who does not play. Like all of my real fantasy teams, this team leads any league in Ks.

One of the league members thinks I drafted Jay Bruce too highly. Could be. And, I would bench him against LHP. But, power is rare post steroids. I like drafting OF late, because OFers are so easily replaceable, but I felt Bruce and Abreu belonged in R6/R7.

Closers with good ratios are drafted 13, 15, 20 and 21. I see no reason to draft closers any earlier.

The draft format (having David Ortiz in the U spot) prevented me from taking Travis Hafner late, but I would do that in a real draft. This draft assumed no bench, which I find odd.

I also typically do not participate in two catcher leagues. I took Posada in R14 because no one else seemed to want him.

I ended up taking marginal Rockies late. I am not so smart as to view them as anything but placeholders. But, if I am in a pinch and not sure who to take, why not someone who plays in Coors Field? For a while, I thought having Helton/Baker at 1B was pretty smart, but I am sure someone like Matt LaPorta will turn out to be a better 1B power source.

Here is a draft process you might consider. Print out the top several pages of Average Draft Position, then highlight your sleepers-- the players you think are being taken too late. Also, highlight all of the projected closers past round ten. When your turn comes around, unless Bobby Abreu is staring you in the face when you least expect it, take the players you highlighted.

Anyway, I hope my real Yahoo team turns out as good. I found the exercise to be fun.



Final Roster
Pos Name Team Pick
C Joe Mauer MIN R5 P1
C Jorge Posada NYY R14 P12
1B Todd Helton COL R18 P12
2B Howie Kendrick ANA R8 P12
2B Jeff Baker COL R19 P1
2B Clint Barmes COL R22 P12
SS Hanley Ramirez FLA R1 P1
3B Evan Longoria TB R2 P12
OF Jay Bruce CIN R6 P12
OF Bobby Abreu NYY R7 P1
OF Nelson Cruz TEX R11 P1
OF Justin Upton ARI R16 P12
OF Gary Sheffield DET R23 P1
DH David Ortiz BOS R4 P12
SP Johan Santana NYM R3 P1
SP Felix Hernandez SEA R9 P1
SP Matt Cain SF R10 P12
SP Randy Johnson SF R12 P12
SP John Smoltz BOS R17 P1
RP Matt Lindstrom FLA R13 P1
RP Joey Devine OAK R15 P1
RP George Sherrill BAL R20 P12
RP Joel Zumaya DET R21 P1... injured

I tried again and had technical problems, and problems with focus, but ended up with this team:
R1 P11 SP Johan Santana, NYM
R2 P2 OF Josh Hamilton, TEX
R3 P11 SP Tim Lincecum, SF
R4 P2 1B Adrian Gonzalez, SD... tough for him to repeat elite numbers at Safeco
R5 P11 SP Brandon Webb, ARI
R6 P2 2B Dan Uggla, FLA
R7 P11 OF Jay Bruce, CIN ... probably too early
R8 P2 C Kelly Shoppach, CLE... too early
R9 P11 3B Edwin Encarnacion, CIN... opposite of Adrian Gonzalez, would not be a good pick at Safeco
R10 P2 SS Troy Tulowitzki, COL
------------------------AUTO PICKS FROM MY LIST, but not my actual choices ...
R11 P11 3B Mark Reynolds, ARI
R12 P2 OF Conor Jackson, ARI [1B]
R13 P11 DH Travis Hafner, CLE
R14 P2 RP Matt Capps, PIT
R15 P11 RP Matt Lindstrom, FLA
R16 P2 RP Joey Devine, OAK
R17 P11 RP Joel Hanrahan, WAS
-------------------------COMPLETELY COMPUTER GENERATED past here...
R18 P2 OF Hideki Matsui, NYY
R19 P11 SS Jason Bartlett, TB
R20 P2 OF Fred Lewis, SF.... Someone picks Justin Upton here; I would pick him several rounds ago
R21 P11 SS Edgar Renteria, SF

What to say? First, the good advice to avoid pitchers toward the beginning of drafts is being taken too seriously. If you see Lincecum at the back end of the third round, you have to take him. Santana/Lincecum/Webb should bring big points to W/ERA/K/WHIP.

Secondly, with Doumit, Soto, Weiters, Napoli and Shoppach, there is a second tier of top catchers. No need to panic pick on a catcher, when middle infield is tougher to fill.

Finally, despite all the problems, the prediction program put this team in a tie for fourth. But, even with the obvious flaws, particularly 1B, I take the first team over the second.