Josh Willingham?
Josh Willingham?
Why would anyone draft Josh Willingham, rookie catcher, Florida Marlins, for a Yahoo fantasy baseball team? Josh has been drafted in less than 10% of Yahoo leagues. Has anyone even heard of Josh Willingham?
Yahoo ranks Willingham as player number 817. In my league, there are twelve teams with 21 players each; only 252 players total. So, on the surface, there is no reason to have Josh Willingham on a team. Josh Willingham is ranked as the number 45 catcher by Yahoo going into 2006. Catchers drafted in my league included the top ten Yahoo rated catchers--Martinez, Mauer, Lopez, Varitek, Rodriguez, Johjima, Posada, Hernandez, Molina and Barrett. Number twelve, Pierzynski, and number fifteen, Piazza, were also drafted. In my league, only one team chose to draft two catchers. So, why would you draft catcher number 45?
His 2005 MLB statistics-- 7 hits in 23 at bats (.304), 3 Rs, 4 RBIs, zero HR, zero SB. Now, let me convince you that Willingham belongs on your fantasy team.
In 2005, Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians, hit .300 with 23 HR, making him the top Yahoo ranked catcher going into 2006. Overall, Victor Martinez is ranked as the 29th player. Typically, catchers will not provide SB or score their share of R. Sometimes, catchers contribute with HRs and RBIs. For example, Javy Lopez hit more than forty HRs in 2003. A few hit for average. Generally, catchers are poor offensive players. Victor Martinez appears to be the best catcher and would be a good choice for your team, assuming you are willing to spend a top draft pick on a catcher.
The primary reason to draft Willingham is that Willingham is a hitter capable of Victor Martinez-like performance. Though he may be a defensive liability at catcher for Florida, this does not matter in a fantasy league. The Bill James 2006 handbook projects his OPS at .905, which is on par with the top power hitters in baseball. This projection is based on minor league performance and not every player lives up to expectations. But, OPS as a statistic is the best overall measure of hitting. Willingham projects as the best hitting catcher, period. The four catchers with the highest potential for providing good hitting statistics are Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer and two rookies, Josh Willingham and Brian McCann.
Joe Mauer is the second rated catcher per Yahoo and number 56th player over-all. In 2005, Mauer had 13 SB (top rank for a catcher) and a .294 AVG (second best for a catcher). Nonetheless, Mauer is ranked 56th overall primarily based upon his youth and potential. Like Mauer who is 23 years old, and unlike veterans such as Posada or Piazza, whose best days are probably behind them,Willingham also has unfulfilled potential. Most catchers are older than 30, and their offensive production is in decline. Willingham is 27, making him the second youngest drafted catcher in my league.
Martinez and Mauer will probably be the top two catchers, if they are not hurt. But, projecting catchers three through sixteen is a guessing game, as all are projected to be comparable to each other. Joe Mauer hit 9 HR and 55 RBIs in 2005, which was exceeded by twelve other catchers in 2005. Barajas, Texas, or Valentin, Cincinnati, are as likely to hit 20 HR as any drafted catcher and they may not be as good as McCann, Atlanta or Estrada, Arizona. If Willingham fails, he can be exchanged for another catcher who is performing better. This other catcher, who will be available for the taking in your twelve team league, will provide interchangeable results to most of the other drafted catchers based on the projections. Willingham is therefore very low risk. (By the way, unless you draft Martinez or Mauer, you should not waste a high draft pick on your catcher. In fact, I recommend drafting your catcher with your absolutely last pick.)
When Willingham is not playing at catcher, he will play outfield for Florida. So, it is likely that Willingham will play more games than other players eligible to be slotted in the C position. He is projected to bat sixth in the Florida lineup. Therefore, Willingham will have more than his share of opportunities for R, HR, SB and RBI based on the number of at bats he is likely to receive.
Florida is a low budget, rebuilding team. The unproven players who surround Willingham in the lineup hurt his fantasy value. But, other rookies in Florida’s lineup may also be good risks. For example, Jeremy Hermida and Mike Jacobs are also projected to hit well. Miguel Cabrera of Florida is an all-star. Florida’s offensive production may not be as terrible as many expect.
Even though Willingham is ranked as the number 45 catcher in Yahoo, there is very little to lose by drafting him. It is not unreasonable to hope that Willingham will perform in the top three at his position in 2006. Josh Willingham is the ultimate sleeper in fantasy baseball.
Why would anyone draft Josh Willingham, rookie catcher, Florida Marlins, for a Yahoo fantasy baseball team? Josh has been drafted in less than 10% of Yahoo leagues. Has anyone even heard of Josh Willingham?
Yahoo ranks Willingham as player number 817. In my league, there are twelve teams with 21 players each; only 252 players total. So, on the surface, there is no reason to have Josh Willingham on a team. Josh Willingham is ranked as the number 45 catcher by Yahoo going into 2006. Catchers drafted in my league included the top ten Yahoo rated catchers--Martinez, Mauer, Lopez, Varitek, Rodriguez, Johjima, Posada, Hernandez, Molina and Barrett. Number twelve, Pierzynski, and number fifteen, Piazza, were also drafted. In my league, only one team chose to draft two catchers. So, why would you draft catcher number 45?
His 2005 MLB statistics-- 7 hits in 23 at bats (.304), 3 Rs, 4 RBIs, zero HR, zero SB. Now, let me convince you that Willingham belongs on your fantasy team.
In 2005, Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians, hit .300 with 23 HR, making him the top Yahoo ranked catcher going into 2006. Overall, Victor Martinez is ranked as the 29th player. Typically, catchers will not provide SB or score their share of R. Sometimes, catchers contribute with HRs and RBIs. For example, Javy Lopez hit more than forty HRs in 2003. A few hit for average. Generally, catchers are poor offensive players. Victor Martinez appears to be the best catcher and would be a good choice for your team, assuming you are willing to spend a top draft pick on a catcher.
The primary reason to draft Willingham is that Willingham is a hitter capable of Victor Martinez-like performance. Though he may be a defensive liability at catcher for Florida, this does not matter in a fantasy league. The Bill James 2006 handbook projects his OPS at .905, which is on par with the top power hitters in baseball. This projection is based on minor league performance and not every player lives up to expectations. But, OPS as a statistic is the best overall measure of hitting. Willingham projects as the best hitting catcher, period. The four catchers with the highest potential for providing good hitting statistics are Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer and two rookies, Josh Willingham and Brian McCann.
Joe Mauer is the second rated catcher per Yahoo and number 56th player over-all. In 2005, Mauer had 13 SB (top rank for a catcher) and a .294 AVG (second best for a catcher). Nonetheless, Mauer is ranked 56th overall primarily based upon his youth and potential. Like Mauer who is 23 years old, and unlike veterans such as Posada or Piazza, whose best days are probably behind them,Willingham also has unfulfilled potential. Most catchers are older than 30, and their offensive production is in decline. Willingham is 27, making him the second youngest drafted catcher in my league.
Martinez and Mauer will probably be the top two catchers, if they are not hurt. But, projecting catchers three through sixteen is a guessing game, as all are projected to be comparable to each other. Joe Mauer hit 9 HR and 55 RBIs in 2005, which was exceeded by twelve other catchers in 2005. Barajas, Texas, or Valentin, Cincinnati, are as likely to hit 20 HR as any drafted catcher and they may not be as good as McCann, Atlanta or Estrada, Arizona. If Willingham fails, he can be exchanged for another catcher who is performing better. This other catcher, who will be available for the taking in your twelve team league, will provide interchangeable results to most of the other drafted catchers based on the projections. Willingham is therefore very low risk. (By the way, unless you draft Martinez or Mauer, you should not waste a high draft pick on your catcher. In fact, I recommend drafting your catcher with your absolutely last pick.)
When Willingham is not playing at catcher, he will play outfield for Florida. So, it is likely that Willingham will play more games than other players eligible to be slotted in the C position. He is projected to bat sixth in the Florida lineup. Therefore, Willingham will have more than his share of opportunities for R, HR, SB and RBI based on the number of at bats he is likely to receive.
Florida is a low budget, rebuilding team. The unproven players who surround Willingham in the lineup hurt his fantasy value. But, other rookies in Florida’s lineup may also be good risks. For example, Jeremy Hermida and Mike Jacobs are also projected to hit well. Miguel Cabrera of Florida is an all-star. Florida’s offensive production may not be as terrible as many expect.
Even though Willingham is ranked as the number 45 catcher in Yahoo, there is very little to lose by drafting him. It is not unreasonable to hope that Willingham will perform in the top three at his position in 2006. Josh Willingham is the ultimate sleeper in fantasy baseball.
posted by David Rasmussen at 11:10 AM
1 Comments:
Yahoo catcher rankings, 2006 Season:
1) Mauer, 2) McCann, 3) Martinez, 4) Posada, 5) Rodriguez, 6) Hernandez, 7) Willingham, 8) Johjima, 9) Pierzynski, 10) LoDuca 11) Martin, 12) Barrett, 13) Kendall, 14) Piazza, 15) Estrada, 16) B. Molina
Rookies ranked 2, 7, 8, 11.
Mauer was AL batting champion.
Victor Martinez 82R, 16HR, 93 RBI, 0 SB, .316
Josh Willingham 62R, 26HR, 74 RBI, 2 SB, .277
Josh actually played 132 games as left fielder and only two as catcher, so he will lose catcher eligibility in 2007.
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