I like Bill Smith
Were the trades of Jason Bartlett and Matt Garza for Delmon Young and Brendan Harris ominous news for the Twins, who have already lost Torii Hunter and will likely soon trade Johan Santana? I feel otherwise. The Twins under new GM, Bill Smith, will do very well.
Delmon Young, only 22, was second place in Rookie of the Year voting. An excellent defensive corner outfielder, he strikes out a lot, but has the potential to be as good or better than Torii Hunter offensively. I will go out on a limb and predict that Delmon Young hits for a higher average and hits more homeruns than Torii Hunter in 2008. If I am wrong, he will do it in 2009 and 2010. If Delmon does not perform, then I admire Bill Smith for going after an outfielder with as much long term potential as anyone. The baseball geek term is 'upside'.
Another reason I like this trade is that it said, "I want to deal." It also said, "Yankees, your offer for Santana is not good enough. Red Sox, your offer can be improved. Mets, how do you feel about offering Jose Reyes?" It also says, "I am comfortable letting the markets develop. For now, I can live without a true starting shortstop, a valid third basemen, and an adequate center fielder. Worst case, I can always find a Kenny Lofton to fill in."
This morning, hours after his contract was non-tendered by the clueless Astros, the Twins signed Adam Everett, filling one of the three holes for the 2008 season with the top fielding shortstop in baseball. He will bat poorly, but it will not matter. Adam Everett will win more games for the Twins with his best in baseball defense than Jason Bartlett won for the Twins with his bat. This pick up costs the Twins $1.8 million in salary. The Astros get nothing in return.
Last year, at 3B, Nick Punto played terribly (historically terribly) and there was an equal lack of talent at DH. Bill Smith has shown that he will make moves. The Twins will field players at all positions this year.
Though Detroit, Cleveland and the White Sox are formidable, and even Kansas City continues to get better, I suspect the Twins will be better than last year. Oakland has shown the ability to get younger and stay good. Oakland management would not be afraid to trade Johan Santana and/or Joe Nathan to fill holes with young, emerging players at 3B, CF and SP. I think Twins management can also pull off this trick. Update: the A's just traded Dan Haren for prospects.
ZIPS projections for the Twins came out November 8, before the dealing. ZIPS says the Twins have two above average hitters to lead their offense.
C Joe Mauer, age 25, .315/.405/.458 Avg C .256/.317/.395
1B Justin Morneau, age 27, .283/.355/.527 Avg 1B .275/.354/.462
Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel project as average outfielder/DH types. Per the Rays ZIPS projection, Brendan Harris projects as average for 2B offense. Delmon Young projects as well below average, though his age adjusted most comparable players include hall of famers. Mike Lamb projects as an almost average 3B per Astros ZIPS.
To summarize ZIPS, Mauer and Morneau are outstanding, Cuddyer, Kubel, Harris, and Lamb are very near average, Young is below average but with unlimited potential, Everett is well below average, but with a glove that more than makes up for his offense, and the Twins don't yet have a center fielder. Casilla and Punto make better pinch runners than pinch hitters. Monroe is less good than average, as well.
ZIPS sees nine above average pitchers: Joe Nathan, Johan Santana (SP), Francisco Liriano (SP), Dennys Reyes, Matt Guerrier, Pat Neshek, Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, and Kevin Slowey (SP).
Scott Baker (SP), age 26, ranks just below average per these computer projections. Nick Blackburn (SP), Boof Bonser (SP) and Glen Perkins (SP), each age 25 or 26, project as below average, but are young enough to potentially improve. Any trade scenario involving Santana would return an above average young starting pitcher. With or without Santana and Nathan, the Twins pitching staff will be above average, assuming Liriano is back.
I draw the Twins depth chart differently from the Twins.:
C Mauer/Redmond
1B Morneau/Lamb
2B Harris/Casilla
SS Everett/Casilla
3B Lamb/Buscher/Punto
LF Cuddyer/Kubel
CF TBD/Punto
RF Young/Cuddyer
DH Kubel/Monroe
Lineup and Bill James' 2008 Projections for BA/OBP/SLG/RC27:
TBD (Most likely, the lead off hitter will play center field.)
Mauer, 25 (L) .320/.409/.472/7.35
Cuddyer, 29 (R) .275/.356/.454/5.66
Morneau, 27 (L) .283/.355/.522/6.60
Young, 22 (R) .301/.331/.446/5.40 (assumes he is a Ray)
Kubel, 26 (L) .276/.339/.456/5.50
Harris, 27 (R) .276/.336/.420/4.97 (assumes he is a Ray)
Lamb. 32 (L) .279/.347/.432/5.39 (assumes he is an Astro)
Everett, 31 (R) .246/.295/.348/3.46 (assumes he is an Astro)
Pitchers and Bill James' 2008 Projections for K/IP/BR9/ERA (where available):
Joe Nathan, 33 (RP,R) 81/70/9.8/2.70 (40 saves)
Johan Santana, 29 (SP, L) 228/216/9.8/3.00
Francisco Liriano, 24 (SP,L) 189/152/9.8/2.84
Dennys Reyes, 31 (RP, L) 25/30/14.4/4.50
Matt Guerrier, 29 (RP,R) 58/86/11.7/3.77
Pat Neshek, 27 (RP,R) 80/65/10.0/3.05
Juan Rincon, 29 (RP,R) 60/64/12.5/3.66
Jesse Crain, 26 (RP,R) 20/35/12.1/3.86
Kevin Slowey, 24 (SP, R)
Scott Baker, 26 (SP, R) 52/40/13.3/4.05
Nick Blackburn, 26 (SP, R)
Boof Bonser, 26 (SP,R ) 161/180/13.0/4.60
Glen Perkins, 25 (SP, L)
Update: Mike Lamb was signed for two years for $6.5 million. While he is much better than what the Twins had at 3B, Lamb does not represent the future of the team. (I wonder if the Twins over-paid, as with Craig Monroe, though, both players are fine to have on the roster, even if neither has upside.)
The Twins still need young prospects with upside and a starting CF. The latest rumor is that the Twins might get Hideki Matsui from the Yankees as part of a deal. Matsui, who at 34 is well above average offensively, would displace Kubel from the starting lineup, and most likely bump Monroe from the team. Moving Cuddyer to 3B and bumping Lamb to a part time role could also be considered. With Hunter gone, and if Santana is gone, the Twins can afford Matsui for $13 million per year for two years. Philip Hughes, and presumably Melky Cabrera, would also need to join the Twins to make this deal work. (This would leave Damon, Abreu and Shelley Duncan in the Yankees outfield, until their next trade.) Kei Igawa at $4 million per year through 2011, might be a good gamble for the Twins, as well. We'll see if Mr. Smith continues to think outside of the box, though come to think of it, two years of Matsui is not a long time, and why would the Yankees give him up, as he is not overpaid?
Update (and a similar view): La Velle E. Neal III podcast
Delmon Young, only 22, was second place in Rookie of the Year voting. An excellent defensive corner outfielder, he strikes out a lot, but has the potential to be as good or better than Torii Hunter offensively. I will go out on a limb and predict that Delmon Young hits for a higher average and hits more homeruns than Torii Hunter in 2008. If I am wrong, he will do it in 2009 and 2010. If Delmon does not perform, then I admire Bill Smith for going after an outfielder with as much long term potential as anyone. The baseball geek term is 'upside'.
Another reason I like this trade is that it said, "I want to deal." It also said, "Yankees, your offer for Santana is not good enough. Red Sox, your offer can be improved. Mets, how do you feel about offering Jose Reyes?" It also says, "I am comfortable letting the markets develop. For now, I can live without a true starting shortstop, a valid third basemen, and an adequate center fielder. Worst case, I can always find a Kenny Lofton to fill in."
This morning, hours after his contract was non-tendered by the clueless Astros, the Twins signed Adam Everett, filling one of the three holes for the 2008 season with the top fielding shortstop in baseball. He will bat poorly, but it will not matter. Adam Everett will win more games for the Twins with his best in baseball defense than Jason Bartlett won for the Twins with his bat. This pick up costs the Twins $1.8 million in salary. The Astros get nothing in return.
Last year, at 3B, Nick Punto played terribly (historically terribly) and there was an equal lack of talent at DH. Bill Smith has shown that he will make moves. The Twins will field players at all positions this year.
Though Detroit, Cleveland and the White Sox are formidable, and even Kansas City continues to get better, I suspect the Twins will be better than last year. Oakland has shown the ability to get younger and stay good. Oakland management would not be afraid to trade Johan Santana and/or Joe Nathan to fill holes with young, emerging players at 3B, CF and SP. I think Twins management can also pull off this trick. Update: the A's just traded Dan Haren for prospects.
ZIPS projections for the Twins came out November 8, before the dealing. ZIPS says the Twins have two above average hitters to lead their offense.
C Joe Mauer, age 25, .315/.405/.458 Avg C .256/.317/.395
1B Justin Morneau, age 27, .283/.355/.527 Avg 1B .275/.354/.462
Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel project as average outfielder/DH types. Per the Rays ZIPS projection, Brendan Harris projects as average for 2B offense. Delmon Young projects as well below average, though his age adjusted most comparable players include hall of famers. Mike Lamb projects as an almost average 3B per Astros ZIPS.
To summarize ZIPS, Mauer and Morneau are outstanding, Cuddyer, Kubel, Harris, and Lamb are very near average, Young is below average but with unlimited potential, Everett is well below average, but with a glove that more than makes up for his offense, and the Twins don't yet have a center fielder. Casilla and Punto make better pinch runners than pinch hitters. Monroe is less good than average, as well.
ZIPS sees nine above average pitchers: Joe Nathan, Johan Santana (SP), Francisco Liriano (SP), Dennys Reyes, Matt Guerrier, Pat Neshek, Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, and Kevin Slowey (SP).
Scott Baker (SP), age 26, ranks just below average per these computer projections. Nick Blackburn (SP), Boof Bonser (SP) and Glen Perkins (SP), each age 25 or 26, project as below average, but are young enough to potentially improve. Any trade scenario involving Santana would return an above average young starting pitcher. With or without Santana and Nathan, the Twins pitching staff will be above average, assuming Liriano is back.
I draw the Twins depth chart differently from the Twins.:
C Mauer/Redmond
1B Morneau/Lamb
2B Harris/Casilla
SS Everett/Casilla
3B Lamb/Buscher/Punto
LF Cuddyer/Kubel
CF TBD/Punto
RF Young/Cuddyer
DH Kubel/Monroe
Lineup and Bill James' 2008 Projections for BA/OBP/SLG/RC27:
TBD (Most likely, the lead off hitter will play center field.)
Mauer, 25 (L) .320/.409/.472/7.35
Cuddyer, 29 (R) .275/.356/.454/5.66
Morneau, 27 (L) .283/.355/.522/6.60
Young, 22 (R) .301/.331/.446/5.40 (assumes he is a Ray)
Kubel, 26 (L) .276/.339/.456/5.50
Harris, 27 (R) .276/.336/.420/4.97 (assumes he is a Ray)
Lamb. 32 (L) .279/.347/.432/5.39 (assumes he is an Astro)
Everett, 31 (R) .246/.295/.348/3.46 (assumes he is an Astro)
Pitchers and Bill James' 2008 Projections for K/IP/BR9/ERA (where available):
Joe Nathan, 33 (RP,R) 81/70/9.8/2.70 (40 saves)
Johan Santana, 29 (SP, L) 228/216/9.8/3.00
Francisco Liriano, 24 (SP,L) 189/152/9.8/2.84
Dennys Reyes, 31 (RP, L) 25/30/14.4/4.50
Matt Guerrier, 29 (RP,R) 58/86/11.7/3.77
Pat Neshek, 27 (RP,R) 80/65/10.0/3.05
Juan Rincon, 29 (RP,R) 60/64/12.5/3.66
Jesse Crain, 26 (RP,R) 20/35/12.1/3.86
Kevin Slowey, 24 (SP, R)
Scott Baker, 26 (SP, R) 52/40/13.3/4.05
Nick Blackburn, 26 (SP, R)
Boof Bonser, 26 (SP,R ) 161/180/13.0/4.60
Glen Perkins, 25 (SP, L)
Update: Mike Lamb was signed for two years for $6.5 million. While he is much better than what the Twins had at 3B, Lamb does not represent the future of the team. (I wonder if the Twins over-paid, as with Craig Monroe, though, both players are fine to have on the roster, even if neither has upside.)
The Twins still need young prospects with upside and a starting CF. The latest rumor is that the Twins might get Hideki Matsui from the Yankees as part of a deal. Matsui, who at 34 is well above average offensively, would displace Kubel from the starting lineup, and most likely bump Monroe from the team. Moving Cuddyer to 3B and bumping Lamb to a part time role could also be considered. With Hunter gone, and if Santana is gone, the Twins can afford Matsui for $13 million per year for two years. Philip Hughes, and presumably Melky Cabrera, would also need to join the Twins to make this deal work. (This would leave Damon, Abreu and Shelley Duncan in the Yankees outfield, until their next trade.) Kei Igawa at $4 million per year through 2011, might be a good gamble for the Twins, as well. We'll see if Mr. Smith continues to think outside of the box, though come to think of it, two years of Matsui is not a long time, and why would the Yankees give him up, as he is not overpaid?
Update (and a similar view): La Velle E. Neal III podcast
posted by David Rasmussen at 6:13 PM
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