Ottoneu 2013-- a fantasy baseball draft has occurred
I joined Ottoneu last year and renewed my second place team. Apparently, we were a competitive league, as someone calculated the league as third ranked over-all. The draft was last night. The team I ended up with should be fine. Here are some pointers if you are considering joining an Ottoneu points league.
1) Understand the point system. If you see projections of standard categories, you can directly calculate projected points for the upcoming year. I used ZIPS to calculate projected hitter points and Steamer to calculate projected pitching points. Spreadsheets of both projections were freely available. There are players that do better in 5x5 and players that do better in a points system. Make an attempt to understand who these players are, as others in the league will be doing this. I read up on OPS leagues. For my quirky Ottoneu points league, I determined it to be important to stock up on premium pitchers like Cliff Lee.
2) Have a cheat sheet listing all of the players by position with a dollar value for each that you might be willing to spend. Cross off each player and write down the actual dollar price as the auction proceeds. That is the only way you will know that Johan Santana is still available for $1 at the end of the draft. My cheat sheet was hard to read this year due to a toner issue with my printer. I knew Johan Santana was available for $1 at the end of the draft, so maybe I was organized well enough. Still, I was struggling trying to figure out my bids for each player. You should not struggle. I calculated and listed total points and points/game and points/inning for each player that I was considering on my cheat sheet, since the trusted sources I rely on for position rankings can not guess league specific information. A combination of sources makes for better drafting.
3) Know what you need. I got an extra infielder and am one short in the outfield because I forgot that Elvis Andrus was slotted as MI for my team. This goes back to point 2. Be organized. Have a good cheat sheet.
4) Get a feel for the auction site before the draft. Otherwise, you may nominate Adam Eaton, the pitcher, instead of Adam Eaton, the OF, as I did. (He went for $4 to someone else, then the commissioner revoked the nomination since I pointed out it was accidental.) Online draft software can be tricky. Figure out how to locate the players you want before the draft.
5) Check who is injured just before the draft. I found a page on mlb.com that listed injuries by team. No reason to bid on Chris Carpenter if he is not going to play all year. On the other hand, I did take Michael Pineda at $2 for the upside, even though I knew he was injured. I was also tempted to bid on Neftali Feliz. In Ottoneu, it seems that those on the 60 day DL do not take a roster spot during the season, though they will count in your roster as you are drafting.
6) Go after upside if it is available and not over-priced. If you don't know who has upside, take the youngest player at a position. Last year, though not in Ottoneu, I took Jose Altuve at 2B, the 2012 SB leader for the position, not because I expected anything great, but because I noticed that players like Brian Roberts were getting older. The youngest starter at a position is the guy most likely to improve.
7) Be flexible. It was obvious at my draft yesterday that we were all targeting some of the same players. If some guy is listed as a sleeper in a magazine, he is not a sleeper if everyone else reads the same magazine. Cut bait if Mike Zunino goes for $8. The writer who suggested him thought he was going for $1. At my league yesterday, I saw the hot sleeper picks going too high for player after player.
8) Give players a second chance. Last year, I picked up Aaron Hill for $3 after a bad 2011. He ended up as a top second baseman in 2012. I found potential bargain players who might rebound in 2013. These included Ryan Howard, $6, Lance Berkman, $9, Michael Young, $5 and Michael Cuddyer, $10 (the Ottoneu points system loves him). On a 40 man roster, you can afford to carry players if you are not sure whether they are broken down or have another great year in them.
9) Don't go overboard on prospects. A player who emerges in 2013 may have value for years to come. A player who is not expected to see major league action until 2015 is probably not worth keeping, even if you have 40 roster spots.
10) If you make a mistake or two, don't sweat it. I took injured prospect, Rymer Liriano, for $4, then dropped him. No biggie.
11) It is tempting to keep too many players from season to season. The fewer players you keep, the more $1 picks you can end up with. Our 2012 champion did a nice job of dumping roster spots and saving them for $1 players at the end of the draft.
12) Joining a fantasy baseball league is like visiting a Mensa meeting. You look at everyone and assume they are smarter than you. But, that does not mean they know what you know. They probably do not. The main advantage that that guy in 14 leagues has over you is that he is past the learning curve and is not likely to make technical errors or a silly blunder.
Other notes:
Our draft board broke down a time or too as Nev was evidently messing with the database. No biggie. The commissioner fixed all of the problems as they occurred. Ottoneu is the little guy.
Is Eno Sarris in my league? If not, why was everyone talking about craft brews?
1) Understand the point system. If you see projections of standard categories, you can directly calculate projected points for the upcoming year. I used ZIPS to calculate projected hitter points and Steamer to calculate projected pitching points. Spreadsheets of both projections were freely available. There are players that do better in 5x5 and players that do better in a points system. Make an attempt to understand who these players are, as others in the league will be doing this. I read up on OPS leagues. For my quirky Ottoneu points league, I determined it to be important to stock up on premium pitchers like Cliff Lee.
2) Have a cheat sheet listing all of the players by position with a dollar value for each that you might be willing to spend. Cross off each player and write down the actual dollar price as the auction proceeds. That is the only way you will know that Johan Santana is still available for $1 at the end of the draft. My cheat sheet was hard to read this year due to a toner issue with my printer. I knew Johan Santana was available for $1 at the end of the draft, so maybe I was organized well enough. Still, I was struggling trying to figure out my bids for each player. You should not struggle. I calculated and listed total points and points/game and points/inning for each player that I was considering on my cheat sheet, since the trusted sources I rely on for position rankings can not guess league specific information. A combination of sources makes for better drafting.
3) Know what you need. I got an extra infielder and am one short in the outfield because I forgot that Elvis Andrus was slotted as MI for my team. This goes back to point 2. Be organized. Have a good cheat sheet.
4) Get a feel for the auction site before the draft. Otherwise, you may nominate Adam Eaton, the pitcher, instead of Adam Eaton, the OF, as I did. (He went for $4 to someone else, then the commissioner revoked the nomination since I pointed out it was accidental.) Online draft software can be tricky. Figure out how to locate the players you want before the draft.
5) Check who is injured just before the draft. I found a page on mlb.com that listed injuries by team. No reason to bid on Chris Carpenter if he is not going to play all year. On the other hand, I did take Michael Pineda at $2 for the upside, even though I knew he was injured. I was also tempted to bid on Neftali Feliz. In Ottoneu, it seems that those on the 60 day DL do not take a roster spot during the season, though they will count in your roster as you are drafting.
6) Go after upside if it is available and not over-priced. If you don't know who has upside, take the youngest player at a position. Last year, though not in Ottoneu, I took Jose Altuve at 2B, the 2012 SB leader for the position, not because I expected anything great, but because I noticed that players like Brian Roberts were getting older. The youngest starter at a position is the guy most likely to improve.
7) Be flexible. It was obvious at my draft yesterday that we were all targeting some of the same players. If some guy is listed as a sleeper in a magazine, he is not a sleeper if everyone else reads the same magazine. Cut bait if Mike Zunino goes for $8. The writer who suggested him thought he was going for $1. At my league yesterday, I saw the hot sleeper picks going too high for player after player.
8) Give players a second chance. Last year, I picked up Aaron Hill for $3 after a bad 2011. He ended up as a top second baseman in 2012. I found potential bargain players who might rebound in 2013. These included Ryan Howard, $6, Lance Berkman, $9, Michael Young, $5 and Michael Cuddyer, $10 (the Ottoneu points system loves him). On a 40 man roster, you can afford to carry players if you are not sure whether they are broken down or have another great year in them.
9) Don't go overboard on prospects. A player who emerges in 2013 may have value for years to come. A player who is not expected to see major league action until 2015 is probably not worth keeping, even if you have 40 roster spots.
10) If you make a mistake or two, don't sweat it. I took injured prospect, Rymer Liriano, for $4, then dropped him. No biggie.
11) It is tempting to keep too many players from season to season. The fewer players you keep, the more $1 picks you can end up with. Our 2012 champion did a nice job of dumping roster spots and saving them for $1 players at the end of the draft.
12) Joining a fantasy baseball league is like visiting a Mensa meeting. You look at everyone and assume they are smarter than you. But, that does not mean they know what you know. They probably do not. The main advantage that that guy in 14 leagues has over you is that he is past the learning curve and is not likely to make technical errors or a silly blunder.
Other notes:
Our draft board broke down a time or too as Nev was evidently messing with the database. No biggie. The commissioner fixed all of the problems as they occurred. Ottoneu is the little guy.
Is Eno Sarris in my league? If not, why was everyone talking about craft brews?
posted by David Rasmussen at 2:43 PM
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