Thursday, February 07, 2008

Obama's Super Duper Tuesday and Stadium Tour

I found the votes in Idaho, where Obama drew 13,000 people to an event, in Colorado, where Obama drew 18,000 to an event, and in Minnesota, where Obama drew 19,000+ people to an event to be striking. In Idaho, Democrats broke 79% Obama to 17% Clinton. In both Colorado and Minnesota, it was 67% Obama to 32% Clinton. Obama slightly won Missouri after early returns had him trailing by 20+%. In St. Louis, the counting was slow. St. Louis, where Obama drew 20,000+, won the state for him. The Economist points out that Obama is outperforming poll results. A look at his speaking schedule seems to explain the discrepancy.

Would anyone bet against Obama continuing the "stadium tour" into the following states?

The upcoming voting schedule/Obama stadium tour:
February 9:
Louisiana primaries Obama@ Tulane, New Orleans, 2/7, 9:45 am
Nebraska caucuses Obama@ Civic auditorium, Omaha, 2/7 3:30
Virgin Islands caucuses
Washington caucuses Obama@ Key Arena, Seattle, 2/8, 11 am

February 10:
Maine caucuses Obama@ Bangor, 2/9, 2:30

February 12:
D.C. primaries Bender arena 1/29 + ?
Maryland primaries
Virginia primaries

February 19:
Hawaii caucuses
Washington primaries
Wisconsin primaries

March 4:
Ohio primaries
Rhode Island primaries
Texas primaries
Vermont primaries

March 8:
Wyoming caucuses

March 11:
Mississippi primaries

Obama claims a small lead in pledged delegates, and that lead seems to finally be reported: CNN. Is it consequential that Clinton is ahead in superdelegates, or are the superdelegates likely to reflect their constituents in the end? Clinton says yes to the first part. Obama says yes to the second part. If Hillary is to win, perhaps the Clintons need to copy the Obama strategy and start booking arenas!

Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see how McCain versus Huckabee shapes up as a one on one race.

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