Bazooka Kazoos
This year, I will have two fantasy baseball teams, including my first real league with real people. Today, I draft my Yahoo team. (Okay, the Yahoo people are real, but they seem less so, since I will never meet them in person.)
I log in and learn that I draft 8th. The top five are pretty well established, so Hanley Ramirez, Joses Reyes, Alex Rodriguez, David Wright, and Albert Pujols will go to other teams. I rank the players who will possibly make it to me-- Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Ryan Howard. My decision is made when Grady Sizemore is chosen seventh.
Miguel Cabrera is my first round pick, chosen for his dual 1B/3B eligibility. Jimmy Rollins (SS) goes. (Brian Roberts goes!) I have decided on Soriano, but am left with Evan Longoria (3B). I am thinking Santana might be available in the next round based on injury concerns, but Santana and Lincecum leave the board shortly. Chase Utley (2B) goes leaving me wondering why I did not take him.
C. C. Sabathia (SP), Dustin Pedroria (2B), Brandon Phillips (2B) and Cole Hamels (SP) are drafted, so I pick David Ortiz (U) next. It is a power heavy lineup, but power is rare, so I have to get it now.
I have already punted SS with the top three options gone with the start of round two. For 2B, I am thinking Chone Figgins or Ian Stewart.
Roy Halladay should last until the next round. I had planned to draft two starting pitchers in the first five rounds, but that plan has been pre-empted. I will not take any relief pitchers until after the 15th round. Matt Kemp (OF) offers speed and Nick Markakis is off the board, so now seems the time to take him.
Halladay and Haren both go, so I reach for Francisco Liriano (SP). Catchers and relief pitchers are being drafted, but I want Chone Figgins (2B/3B), since I figure him to offer the same speed as Brian Roberts. Chris Davis and Chipper Jones go; both are bargains.
Jay Bruce (OF) is near the top of the board, so I take a second outfielder. I take Joba Chamberlain (SP/RP) in the 8th round.
Matt Wieters is now at the top of the catcher rankings, so round 9 seems the time to take him. How late can I hold off on Pablo Sandoval to cover catcher until Wieters becomes a major leaguer?
Jon Lester (SP) goes. No one will take Derek Jeter, who has been at the top of the board for the last couple of rounds. He is ranked as the #5 SS per Rotoworld, so I take him to fill out the infield. David Price is now at the top of my list. When he is drafted, I am left with Chris Young (SP). Erik Bedard(SP) is my 12th round pick. I have missed the top pitchers, but still can find starters almost as good, but not pegged for as many innings.
Joey Votto and three outfielders-- Nelson Cruz, Jayson Werth and Justin Upton, all players that I like are near the top of the board. At least one of the three outfielders should make it to the next round, so I pick Pablo Sandoval (C, 1B, 3B), then Justin Upton(OF).
Chris Carpenter and Jon Smoltz are now near the top of my list. Rumor has it that Smoltz may not start until the all-star game, so I go with Chris Carpenter (SP).
Heath Bell is my pick, but he goes two spots ahead of me. I choose Matt Lindstrom (RP) as my first reliever. The next rounds go to Frank Francisco (RP), Joey Devine (RP) and George Sherrill (RP). I miss Ian Stewart and Willy Tavares in the 18th (before and after Devine). (Travis Hafner goes in the 19th.)
I feel I need another SP and another OF. I settle on Duchscherer as the pitcher, then draft Coco Crisp (OF) as the base stealing fourth outfielder. Duchscherer goes, so I pick Fausto Carmona (SP) with the last pick.
Two messages on the board say that the computer prevented people from participating. Four teams look to be more solid than mine. This was the first time available for "winners league" this year, so possibly some ringers are playing.
This team has more power than any I have drafted in a while. The pitching is filled with injury risks, but a call-up or two can fill in when pitchers go down. ERA and K/IP will be solid.
My strength is putting the best team on the field every day, and for example, benching Jay Bruce versus left-handed pitching. Unless my competitors are equally conscientious, I should win my Yahoo league for the third year in a row. But, it will not happen merely on the team drafted today.
2009 Bill James Hitting Projections HR-R-RBI-SB-AVG (from Fangraphs.com)
1B/3B Cabrera 37-103-130-2-.316
2B/3B Figgins 5-101-56-43-.287
3B Longoria 37-102-116-9-.280
SS Jeter 14-102-73-14-.307
C/1B/3B Sandoval 17-90-103-0-.320
OF Kemp 19-96-80-32-.311
OF Bruce 35-94-90-12-.296
OF J. Upton 22-79-69-6-.263
U Ortiz 37-98-119-1-.288
C Wieters 24-68-85-2-.311
OF Crisp 9-74-53-22-.279
The first nine hitters add to 223-865-836-119-.296, which is too good to be true, and wins most categories. CHONE, ZIPS and Oliver, on average, say 194-762-746-113-.285, which would not win any leagues.
2009 Bill James Pitching Projections W-ERA-S-K/IP-WHIP (from Fangraphs.com)
SP Liriano 11-3.62-0-171/166-1.28
SP Chamberlain* 10-3.19-0-160/143-1.21
SP C. Young 10-3.37-0-137/153-1.20
SP Bedard 5-3.72-0-86/89-1.31
SP C. Carpenter 3-3.34-0-36/45-1.18
SP Carmona 8-4.17-0-88/141-1.41
RP Lindstrom 3-4.51-27-54/61-1.54
RP Francisco 4-3.55-26-69/61-1.33
RP Devine 4-3.01-21-72/58-1.22
RP Sherrill 4-3.42-3-60/53-1.32
* No Bill James projection, so I used Rotoauthority projections for Chamberlain.
The pitchers add to 62-3.59-77-933/970-1.29. The projections do not have these pitchers lasting through the season, but if they did, they would be fine. ERA and K/IP are excellent. WHIP is too high, though if Carmona is not better, he is dropped.
So, in summary, the hitting looks great, but more pitchers (280 innings worth) are needed. To compare to previous years, check the 2007 draft and results.
Update: Revised Bill James projections have Eric Bedard pitching more innings. So, the latest pitching projections are 70-3.65-77-1048/1095-1.29. So, without anything changing, we are down to 155 missing IP.
I log in and learn that I draft 8th. The top five are pretty well established, so Hanley Ramirez, Joses Reyes, Alex Rodriguez, David Wright, and Albert Pujols will go to other teams. I rank the players who will possibly make it to me-- Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Ryan Howard. My decision is made when Grady Sizemore is chosen seventh.
Miguel Cabrera is my first round pick, chosen for his dual 1B/3B eligibility. Jimmy Rollins (SS) goes. (Brian Roberts goes!) I have decided on Soriano, but am left with Evan Longoria (3B). I am thinking Santana might be available in the next round based on injury concerns, but Santana and Lincecum leave the board shortly. Chase Utley (2B) goes leaving me wondering why I did not take him.
C. C. Sabathia (SP), Dustin Pedroria (2B), Brandon Phillips (2B) and Cole Hamels (SP) are drafted, so I pick David Ortiz (U) next. It is a power heavy lineup, but power is rare, so I have to get it now.
I have already punted SS with the top three options gone with the start of round two. For 2B, I am thinking Chone Figgins or Ian Stewart.
Roy Halladay should last until the next round. I had planned to draft two starting pitchers in the first five rounds, but that plan has been pre-empted. I will not take any relief pitchers until after the 15th round. Matt Kemp (OF) offers speed and Nick Markakis is off the board, so now seems the time to take him.
Halladay and Haren both go, so I reach for Francisco Liriano (SP). Catchers and relief pitchers are being drafted, but I want Chone Figgins (2B/3B), since I figure him to offer the same speed as Brian Roberts. Chris Davis and Chipper Jones go; both are bargains.
Jay Bruce (OF) is near the top of the board, so I take a second outfielder. I take Joba Chamberlain (SP/RP) in the 8th round.
Matt Wieters is now at the top of the catcher rankings, so round 9 seems the time to take him. How late can I hold off on Pablo Sandoval to cover catcher until Wieters becomes a major leaguer?
Jon Lester (SP) goes. No one will take Derek Jeter, who has been at the top of the board for the last couple of rounds. He is ranked as the #5 SS per Rotoworld, so I take him to fill out the infield. David Price is now at the top of my list. When he is drafted, I am left with Chris Young (SP). Erik Bedard(SP) is my 12th round pick. I have missed the top pitchers, but still can find starters almost as good, but not pegged for as many innings.
Joey Votto and three outfielders-- Nelson Cruz, Jayson Werth and Justin Upton, all players that I like are near the top of the board. At least one of the three outfielders should make it to the next round, so I pick Pablo Sandoval (C, 1B, 3B), then Justin Upton(OF).
Chris Carpenter and Jon Smoltz are now near the top of my list. Rumor has it that Smoltz may not start until the all-star game, so I go with Chris Carpenter (SP).
Heath Bell is my pick, but he goes two spots ahead of me. I choose Matt Lindstrom (RP) as my first reliever. The next rounds go to Frank Francisco (RP), Joey Devine (RP) and George Sherrill (RP). I miss Ian Stewart and Willy Tavares in the 18th (before and after Devine). (Travis Hafner goes in the 19th.)
I feel I need another SP and another OF. I settle on Duchscherer as the pitcher, then draft Coco Crisp (OF) as the base stealing fourth outfielder. Duchscherer goes, so I pick Fausto Carmona (SP) with the last pick.
Two messages on the board say that the computer prevented people from participating. Four teams look to be more solid than mine. This was the first time available for "winners league" this year, so possibly some ringers are playing.
This team has more power than any I have drafted in a while. The pitching is filled with injury risks, but a call-up or two can fill in when pitchers go down. ERA and K/IP will be solid.
My strength is putting the best team on the field every day, and for example, benching Jay Bruce versus left-handed pitching. Unless my competitors are equally conscientious, I should win my Yahoo league for the third year in a row. But, it will not happen merely on the team drafted today.
2009 Bill James Hitting Projections HR-R-RBI-SB-AVG (from Fangraphs.com)
1B/3B Cabrera 37-103-130-2-.316
2B/3B Figgins 5-101-56-43-.287
3B Longoria 37-102-116-9-.280
SS Jeter 14-102-73-14-.307
C/1B/3B Sandoval 17-90-103-0-.320
OF Kemp 19-96-80-32-.311
OF Bruce 35-94-90-12-.296
OF J. Upton 22-79-69-6-.263
U Ortiz 37-98-119-1-.288
C Wieters 24-68-85-2-.311
OF Crisp 9-74-53-22-.279
The first nine hitters add to 223-865-836-119-.296, which is too good to be true, and wins most categories. CHONE, ZIPS and Oliver, on average, say 194-762-746-113-.285, which would not win any leagues.
2009 Bill James Pitching Projections W-ERA-S-K/IP-WHIP (from Fangraphs.com)
SP Liriano 11-3.62-0-171/166-1.28
SP Chamberlain* 10-3.19-0-160/143-1.21
SP C. Young 10-3.37-0-137/153-1.20
SP Bedard 5-3.72-0-86/89-1.31
SP C. Carpenter 3-3.34-0-36/45-1.18
SP Carmona 8-4.17-0-88/141-1.41
RP Lindstrom 3-4.51-27-54/61-1.54
RP Francisco 4-3.55-26-69/61-1.33
RP Devine 4-3.01-21-72/58-1.22
RP Sherrill 4-3.42-3-60/53-1.32
* No Bill James projection, so I used Rotoauthority projections for Chamberlain.
The pitchers add to 62-3.59-77-933/970-1.29. The projections do not have these pitchers lasting through the season, but if they did, they would be fine. ERA and K/IP are excellent. WHIP is too high, though if Carmona is not better, he is dropped.
So, in summary, the hitting looks great, but more pitchers (280 innings worth) are needed. To compare to previous years, check the 2007 draft and results.
Update: Revised Bill James projections have Eric Bedard pitching more innings. So, the latest pitching projections are 70-3.65-77-1048/1095-1.29. So, without anything changing, we are down to 155 missing IP.
posted by David Rasmussen at 11:13 AM
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