BashiBashiBashi (Dave's Fantasy Draft)
Here are the Draft results for my league.
I expect to pick infielders or pitchers in the first four rounds, and ideally will pick a catcher in the fifth. Thirty minutes before the Yahoo draft, I learn I have the sixth pick. I assume I will get Miguel Cabrera.
First round Targets:
ARod-3B
Hanley or Reyes-SS
Wright-3B
Howard-1B
Johan-SP
Someone picks Johan and Ortiz early, so I end up with David Wright, age 25, 3B, NYM. I would have a hard time picking between Wright and Reyes, but that choice evaporated with the fifth pick.
Wright's Bill James Projection: 31-111-115-27-.318-.961
I like Rollins or Holliday, and had them both last year, but do not want to pay the premium price their 2007 performance demands. They are picked 11th and 9th. Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Braun go 10th and 15th to the same person. That was the slot that I wanted.
Second Round Targets:
Braun-3B/OF
Peavy-P
Ortiz-1B
Phillips- 2B or Upton-2B/OF
My choice is between Vlad, Phillips or Upton. I get B.J. Upton, age 23, TB, 2B/OF, TB. 21-96-72-32-.276-.815 . This seems a bit risky. There is a good chance I will regret not having Vlad.
Third Round Targets:
Bedard-SP
Berkman-1B/OF
Morneau- 1B
Manny-OF
With the others still available, I take Eric Bedard, SP, Seattle Mariners. 196/210-13-0-12.0-3.69. (Projection based on being in Baltimore)
Fourth Round Targets:
D. Lee-1B
Figgins-2B/3B/OF
Guillen-SS/1B
With the others still available, I pick Derrek Lee, age 32, 1B, Chicago Cubs. 25-82-80-7-.297-.901
Fifth Round Targets:
Mauer-C
Pence-OF
C. Jones-3B
McCann-C
Joe Mauer, age 25, C, Minnesota Twins 12-79-76-9-.320-.881
After the fifth round, I want to focus on four or five starting pitchers from this list:
Liriano
Pedro
Felix Hernandez
Sheets
Hill
Hughes
Buchholz
Harden
Prior
Middle Round Hitting Targets:
C. Hart-OF
Zimmerman- 3B
Swisher-1B/OF
A. Gordon-3B/1B
Sixth Round, John Smoltz, SP, Atlanta 199/221-17-0-10.5,3.22
Seventh Round, Edgar Renteria, 32, SS, Detroit 12-91-74-12-.294-.778 (projection based on being in Atlanta)
Renteria is a panic pick, as I feel I need to fill the middle infield. Furcal is likely the better choice.
Eighth Round: Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle 205/216-13-0-11.9-3.71
Liriano and Sheets are picked.
Ninth Round, Nick Swisher, 27 OF/1B, Chicago WS. 28-96-92-2-.262-.860 (based on playing in Oakland)
Tenth Round, Pedro Martinez, SP, NY Mets 135/125-10-0-9.7-2.88
11th Round, Jim Thome, 37, DH, Chicago WS, 32-76-87-0-.259-.868 (since no one else would take him)
I will select five or six potential closers from the late rounds.
Closer Targets:
Soriano
Soria
Ryan
Sherrill
Gregg
Gagne
Percival
Neshek
Wilson
Howry
12th Round, Matt Capps, RP, Pittsburgh 62/78-4-35-10.6-3.35
13th Round, Joakim Soria, RP, KC Royals no projection
14th Round, B. J. Ryan, RP, Toronto, 65/53-4-32-11.0-3.06
OF Late Round Targets:
Tavares
Kemp
Hamilton
Bruce
Bonds
3B Late Round Target:
M. Reynolds
15th Round, Matt Kemp, 23, OF, LA Dodgers, 16-87-73-24-.322-.873 (just missed Josh Hamilton)
16th Round, Rich Harden, SP, Oakland, 109/125-9-0-11.3-3.24
17th Round, Jay Bruce, 21, OF, Cincinnati,36-77-82-9-.308-.965
Jeff Kent is drafted.
18th Round, George Sherrill, RP, Baltimore 51/44-3-**-11.2-3.07 (numbers reflect Seattle, but he should close for the Orioles)
19th Round, Justin Upton, 20, OF, Arizona, 19-76-79-16-.278-.849
20th Round , Pat Neshek, RP, Twins, 80/65-5-**-10.0-3.05 (I expect the Twins to trade Nathan, then for Neshek to close)
21st Round, Ryan Theriot, 28 2B/SS, Cubs 3-76-47-26-.283-.719
In 2007, I felt I must have SB leaders at 2B and SS. Brian Roberts and Rollins filled the bill. I see more options for SB this year as Matsui, Owens, Theriot and Crisp are late rounders or undrafted. So, while I still feel it is important to fill the infield early, how it is filled is not so critical.
I do not feel it is important to fill the outfield early, as I look for strong performance from some rookies. Josh Hamilton is pegged as a late rounder, and may be as good as anyone. Jay Bruce, for whom he was traded, projects very highly per Bill James. People like Moises Alou are still available in the last rounds, so not drafting outfielders early seems to make sense both as my strategy going in, and in retrospect looking back at the draft.
BashiBashiBashi
Batters, age, team, HR-R-RBI-SB-AVG-OPS (Round)
C Joe Mauer, 25, Twins 12-79-76-9-.320-.881 (5)
1B Derrek Lee, 32, Cubs. 25-82-80-7-.297-.901 (4)
2B/OF B.J. Upton, 23, TB, 21-96-72-32-.276-.815 (2)
3B David Wright, 25, NYM 31-111-115-27-.318-.961 (1)
SS Edgar Renteria, 32, Detroit 12-91-74-12-.294-.778* (7)
OF/1B Nick Swisher, 27, Chicago WS, 28-96-92-2-.262-.860* (9)
OF Matt Kemp, 23, LA Dodgers, 16-87-73-24-.322-.873 (15)
OF Jay Bruce, 21, Cincinnati, 36-77-82-9-.308-.965 (17)
OF Justin Upton, 20, Arizona, 19-76-79-16-.278-.849 (20)
DH Jim Thome, 37, Chicago WS, 32-76-87-0-.259-.868 (11)
2B/SS Ryan Theriot, 28, Cubs, 3-76-47-26-.283-.719 (21)
Pitchers, team K/IP-W-SV-BR/9-ERA (Round)
SP Eric Bedard, Seattle Mariners. 196/210-13-0-12.0-3.69* (3)
SP John Smoltz, Atlanta 199/221-17-0-10.5-3.22 (6)
SP Felix Hernandez, Seattle 205/216-13-0-11.9-3.71 (8)
SP Pedro Martinez, Mets 135/125-10-0-9.7-2.88 (10)
SP Rich Harden, Oakland, 109/125-9-0-11.3-3.24 (16)
RP Matt Capps, Pittsburgh 62/78-4-35-10.6-3.35 (12)
RP Joakim Soria, KC Royals no projection (13)
RP B. J. Ryan, Toronto 65/53-4-32-11.0-3.06 (14)
RP George Sherrill, Baltimore 51/44-3-**-11.2-3.07 (18)
RP Pat Neshek, Twins, 80/65-5-**-10.0-3.05 (20)
* projections are based on a less favorable home ballpark
** no saves were projected, though they now seem likely
The draft went quickly. I thought my one page handwritten cheatsheet and the 17 pages of analysis on my wall would make me organized, but I could have been more organized, especially in Rounds 2 and 7. On first glance, I believe that BashiBashiBashi will hit for a good average, but be short on power. The pitching, if healthy, is strong, with solid strikeout rates, which I try to win each year, low WHIP, and a good ERA projection. I never worry too much about wins, and sometimes pay for this, but figure there is too much luck involved in winning games to prioritize this category.
The one thing that surprised me a bit was the number of traded players that I drafted-- Bedard, Swisher, Renteria, Sherrill, Bruce. The first three players should give better numbers with their new teams. I wonder if many people calculate in park effects when they are drafting.
I read a lot-- Bill James, Aaron Gleeman, Rotoworld, and many fantasy baseball blogs, and should attribute these fine sources. So, look forward to some links in the future. To get you started, this spreadsheet link contains projections to help you develop your draft strategy. Look toward the bottom and you will find the three page summary which matches your league settings.
----------
Prognosis:
2008 Baseball Projections: Fangraphs (Bill James, Chone, Marcel, ZIPS), ESPN, RotoAuthority (IDPS at 9 Bo Jacksons), CBS.
BashiBashiBashi (2008):
For nine starting hitters plus pitchers, Bill James said in November:
213 HR, 771 R, 760 RBI, 127 SB, .296 AVG, 78 W, 67 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1123 K in 1186 IP (1250 max.), 1.15 WHIP
For nine starting hitters plus pitchers, Bill James says March 1:
221 HR, 797 R, 764 RBI, 121 SB, .299 AVG, 78 W, 82 SV, 3.33 ERA, 1147 K in 1137 IP (1250 max.), 1.20 WHIP
An average of the seven projections said:
187 HR, 733 R, 704 RBI, 112 SB, .290 AVG , 76 W, 72 SV, 3.37 ERA, 1096 K in 1120 IP, 1.20 WHIP
2007:
2007 was a good year: BashiBashi Draft and Results
For nine starting players, Bill James said:
215 HR, 860 R, 757 RBI, 127 SB, .299 AVG, 84 W, 59 SV, 3.37 ERA, 1219 K in 1300 IP (1250 max.), 1.15 WHIP
An average of five projections said:
196 HR, 825 R, 696 RBI, 129 SB, .297 AVG , 76 W, 66 SV, 3.85 ERA, 1011 K in 1187 IP, 1.18 WHIP
Actual Final Results:
228 HR (1), 914 R (1), 848 RBI (1), 142 SB (3), .296 (tie 3), 73 W (5), 120 SV (2), 3.82 (4), 1133 K (1), 1.25 (tie 3)
Last year, Holliday and Rollins outperformed, while B.J. Upton emerged, but Albert Pujols underperformed. A lot of the out-performance over projections is because of roster management-- putting players on the field even when the regulars are not playing. Also, trading away closers, then getting free agents was an effective strategy for me.
This year, consider the average projections of the following outfielders:
Matt Kemp 477 AB 16-75-70-18-.303
Jay Bruce 423 AB 22-68-53-8-.289 (missing four projections)
Justin Upton 466 AB 14-62-61-13-.262
These players were drafted based on considerable upside and will either beat their projections or be replaced with players who emerge. Last year, I ended up without my number 11-21 draft picks because I was able to trade away closers for value and able to improve via the waiver wire. So, for any player after a number ten draft pick, I am looking for the potential to be a top ten draft pick. The best use of projections may be to look where there is wide disagreement, and take those players late. (The CBS projection page still thinks George Sherrill pitches for Seattle.) Given that the projections for 2008 look similar to the 2007 projections, the prognosis looks good.
I expect to pick infielders or pitchers in the first four rounds, and ideally will pick a catcher in the fifth. Thirty minutes before the Yahoo draft, I learn I have the sixth pick. I assume I will get Miguel Cabrera.
First round Targets:
ARod-3B
Hanley or Reyes-SS
Wright-3B
Howard-1B
Johan-SP
Someone picks Johan and Ortiz early, so I end up with David Wright, age 25, 3B, NYM. I would have a hard time picking between Wright and Reyes, but that choice evaporated with the fifth pick.
Wright's Bill James Projection: 31-111-115-27-.318-.961
I like Rollins or Holliday, and had them both last year, but do not want to pay the premium price their 2007 performance demands. They are picked 11th and 9th. Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Braun go 10th and 15th to the same person. That was the slot that I wanted.
Second Round Targets:
Braun-3B/OF
Peavy-P
Ortiz-1B
Phillips- 2B or Upton-2B/OF
My choice is between Vlad, Phillips or Upton. I get B.J. Upton, age 23, TB, 2B/OF, TB. 21-96-72-32-.276-.815 . This seems a bit risky. There is a good chance I will regret not having Vlad.
Third Round Targets:
Bedard-SP
Berkman-1B/OF
Morneau- 1B
Manny-OF
With the others still available, I take Eric Bedard, SP, Seattle Mariners. 196/210-13-0-12.0-3.69. (Projection based on being in Baltimore)
Fourth Round Targets:
D. Lee-1B
Figgins-2B/3B/OF
Guillen-SS/1B
With the others still available, I pick Derrek Lee, age 32, 1B, Chicago Cubs. 25-82-80-7-.297-.901
Fifth Round Targets:
Mauer-C
Pence-OF
C. Jones-3B
McCann-C
Joe Mauer, age 25, C, Minnesota Twins 12-79-76-9-.320-.881
After the fifth round, I want to focus on four or five starting pitchers from this list:
Liriano
Pedro
Felix Hernandez
Sheets
Hill
Hughes
Buchholz
Harden
Prior
Middle Round Hitting Targets:
C. Hart-OF
Zimmerman- 3B
Swisher-1B/OF
A. Gordon-3B/1B
Sixth Round, John Smoltz, SP, Atlanta 199/221-17-0-10.5,3.22
Seventh Round, Edgar Renteria, 32, SS, Detroit 12-91-74-12-.294-.778 (projection based on being in Atlanta)
Renteria is a panic pick, as I feel I need to fill the middle infield. Furcal is likely the better choice.
Eighth Round: Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle 205/216-13-0-11.9-3.71
Liriano and Sheets are picked.
Ninth Round, Nick Swisher, 27 OF/1B, Chicago WS. 28-96-92-2-.262-.860 (based on playing in Oakland)
Tenth Round, Pedro Martinez, SP, NY Mets 135/125-10-0-9.7-2.88
11th Round, Jim Thome, 37, DH, Chicago WS, 32-76-87-0-.259-.868 (since no one else would take him)
I will select five or six potential closers from the late rounds.
Closer Targets:
Soriano
Soria
Ryan
Sherrill
Gregg
Gagne
Percival
Neshek
Wilson
Howry
12th Round, Matt Capps, RP, Pittsburgh 62/78-4-35-10.6-3.35
13th Round, Joakim Soria, RP, KC Royals no projection
14th Round, B. J. Ryan, RP, Toronto, 65/53-4-32-11.0-3.06
OF Late Round Targets:
Tavares
Kemp
Hamilton
Bruce
Bonds
3B Late Round Target:
M. Reynolds
15th Round, Matt Kemp, 23, OF, LA Dodgers, 16-87-73-24-.322-.873 (just missed Josh Hamilton)
16th Round, Rich Harden, SP, Oakland, 109/125-9-0-11.3-3.24
17th Round, Jay Bruce, 21, OF, Cincinnati,36-77-82-9-.308-.965
Jeff Kent is drafted.
18th Round, George Sherrill, RP, Baltimore 51/44-3-**-11.2-3.07 (numbers reflect Seattle, but he should close for the Orioles)
19th Round, Justin Upton, 20, OF, Arizona, 19-76-79-16-.278-.849
20th Round , Pat Neshek, RP, Twins, 80/65-5-**-10.0-3.05 (I expect the Twins to trade Nathan, then for Neshek to close)
21st Round, Ryan Theriot, 28 2B/SS, Cubs 3-76-47-26-.283-.719
In 2007, I felt I must have SB leaders at 2B and SS. Brian Roberts and Rollins filled the bill. I see more options for SB this year as Matsui, Owens, Theriot and Crisp are late rounders or undrafted. So, while I still feel it is important to fill the infield early, how it is filled is not so critical.
I do not feel it is important to fill the outfield early, as I look for strong performance from some rookies. Josh Hamilton is pegged as a late rounder, and may be as good as anyone. Jay Bruce, for whom he was traded, projects very highly per Bill James. People like Moises Alou are still available in the last rounds, so not drafting outfielders early seems to make sense both as my strategy going in, and in retrospect looking back at the draft.
BashiBashiBashi
Batters, age, team, HR-R-RBI-SB-AVG-OPS (Round)
C Joe Mauer, 25, Twins 12-79-76-9-.320-.881 (5)
1B Derrek Lee, 32, Cubs. 25-82-80-7-.297-.901 (4)
2B/OF B.J. Upton, 23, TB, 21-96-72-32-.276-.815 (2)
3B David Wright, 25, NYM 31-111-115-27-.318-.961 (1)
SS Edgar Renteria, 32, Detroit 12-91-74-12-.294-.778* (7)
OF/1B Nick Swisher, 27, Chicago WS, 28-96-92-2-.262-.860* (9)
OF Matt Kemp, 23, LA Dodgers, 16-87-73-24-.322-.873 (15)
OF Jay Bruce, 21, Cincinnati, 36-77-82-9-.308-.965 (17)
OF Justin Upton, 20, Arizona, 19-76-79-16-.278-.849 (20)
DH Jim Thome, 37, Chicago WS, 32-76-87-0-.259-.868 (11)
2B/SS Ryan Theriot, 28, Cubs, 3-76-47-26-.283-.719 (21)
Pitchers, team K/IP-W-SV-BR/9-ERA (Round)
SP Eric Bedard, Seattle Mariners. 196/210-13-0-12.0-3.69* (3)
SP John Smoltz, Atlanta 199/221-17-0-10.5-3.22 (6)
SP Felix Hernandez, Seattle 205/216-13-0-11.9-3.71 (8)
SP Pedro Martinez, Mets 135/125-10-0-9.7-2.88 (10)
SP Rich Harden, Oakland, 109/125-9-0-11.3-3.24 (16)
RP Matt Capps, Pittsburgh 62/78-4-35-10.6-3.35 (12)
RP Joakim Soria, KC Royals no projection (13)
RP B. J. Ryan, Toronto 65/53-4-32-11.0-3.06 (14)
RP George Sherrill, Baltimore 51/44-3-**-11.2-3.07 (18)
RP Pat Neshek, Twins, 80/65-5-**-10.0-3.05 (20)
* projections are based on a less favorable home ballpark
** no saves were projected, though they now seem likely
The draft went quickly. I thought my one page handwritten cheatsheet and the 17 pages of analysis on my wall would make me organized, but I could have been more organized, especially in Rounds 2 and 7. On first glance, I believe that BashiBashiBashi will hit for a good average, but be short on power. The pitching, if healthy, is strong, with solid strikeout rates, which I try to win each year, low WHIP, and a good ERA projection. I never worry too much about wins, and sometimes pay for this, but figure there is too much luck involved in winning games to prioritize this category.
The one thing that surprised me a bit was the number of traded players that I drafted-- Bedard, Swisher, Renteria, Sherrill, Bruce. The first three players should give better numbers with their new teams. I wonder if many people calculate in park effects when they are drafting.
I read a lot-- Bill James, Aaron Gleeman, Rotoworld, and many fantasy baseball blogs, and should attribute these fine sources. So, look forward to some links in the future. To get you started, this spreadsheet link contains projections to help you develop your draft strategy. Look toward the bottom and you will find the three page summary which matches your league settings.
----------
Prognosis:
2008 Baseball Projections: Fangraphs (Bill James, Chone, Marcel, ZIPS), ESPN, RotoAuthority (IDPS at 9 Bo Jacksons), CBS.
BashiBashiBashi (2008):
For nine starting hitters plus pitchers, Bill James said in November:
213 HR, 771 R, 760 RBI, 127 SB, .296 AVG, 78 W, 67 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1123 K in 1186 IP (1250 max.), 1.15 WHIP
For nine starting hitters plus pitchers, Bill James says March 1:
221 HR, 797 R, 764 RBI, 121 SB, .299 AVG, 78 W, 82 SV, 3.33 ERA, 1147 K in 1137 IP (1250 max.), 1.20 WHIP
An average of the seven projections said:
187 HR, 733 R, 704 RBI, 112 SB, .290 AVG , 76 W, 72 SV, 3.37 ERA, 1096 K in 1120 IP, 1.20 WHIP
2007:
2007 was a good year: BashiBashi Draft and Results
For nine starting players, Bill James said:
215 HR, 860 R, 757 RBI, 127 SB, .299 AVG, 84 W, 59 SV, 3.37 ERA, 1219 K in 1300 IP (1250 max.), 1.15 WHIP
An average of five projections said:
196 HR, 825 R, 696 RBI, 129 SB, .297 AVG , 76 W, 66 SV, 3.85 ERA, 1011 K in 1187 IP, 1.18 WHIP
Actual Final Results:
228 HR (1), 914 R (1), 848 RBI (1), 142 SB (3), .296 (tie 3), 73 W (5), 120 SV (2), 3.82 (4), 1133 K (1), 1.25 (tie 3)
Last year, Holliday and Rollins outperformed, while B.J. Upton emerged, but Albert Pujols underperformed. A lot of the out-performance over projections is because of roster management-- putting players on the field even when the regulars are not playing. Also, trading away closers, then getting free agents was an effective strategy for me.
This year, consider the average projections of the following outfielders:
Matt Kemp 477 AB 16-75-70-18-.303
Jay Bruce 423 AB 22-68-53-8-.289 (missing four projections)
Justin Upton 466 AB 14-62-61-13-.262
These players were drafted based on considerable upside and will either beat their projections or be replaced with players who emerge. Last year, I ended up without my number 11-21 draft picks because I was able to trade away closers for value and able to improve via the waiver wire. So, for any player after a number ten draft pick, I am looking for the potential to be a top ten draft pick. The best use of projections may be to look where there is wide disagreement, and take those players late. (The CBS projection page still thinks George Sherrill pitches for Seattle.) Given that the projections for 2008 look similar to the 2007 projections, the prognosis looks good.
posted by David Rasmussen at 1:12 PM
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