Baseball 2007

Spring Training has begun. I have researched the major league players using the 2007 Bill James Handbook, which arrived in November. I picked my favorite players and came up with a draft strategy based on conclusions independently reached here. I drafted a team in a Yahoo league. As with the previous six years, I will obsess about this team until October.

My draft:
Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis, age 27. Bill James and ESPN say 50 HR, 140 RBI, .325, and he is a consensus number one over-all choice, above Johann Santana, Ryan Howard, and Jose Reyes, who fill out the consensus top four. I was pleased (lucky) that the random draft landed me at one through four. My number five is Miguel Cabrera, who is being drafted around number ten per Yahoo and ESPN.

The second round was a little disappointing as I would have picked number 20, 22 and 23, Jason Bay, Manny Ramirez or Chris Carpenter. Instead, I landed Matt Holliday, OF, Colorado, age 27 and Jimmy Rollins, SS, Philadelphia, age 28 for picks 24 and 25. Holliday projects at 100+ R, 100+ RBI and .310. Rollins is projected at 115 R, 32 SB. I thought about taking Derek Jeter (at 33, too old?) or Hanley Ramirez (a second year player), but felt both were unlikely to repeat their outstanding 2006s. For the SS position, SB is the strategically premium stat, which put Rollins ahead of Jeter.

There are three top catchers-- Joe Mauer (Round 2, pick 2), Victor Martinez (Round 4, pick 10) and Brian McCann, C, Atlanta, age 23. It was either draft McCann or pick a catcher in one of the last rounds, possibly Russell Martin (Round 19, pick 9). I like picking the last catcher before the talent level drops. I feel I need to fill second base, another scarce position now, as pitcher Jake Peavy (Round 4, pick 5) was off the board. Chone Figgins (Round 4, pick 7), a bet for 40+SB, was also gone. So, I chose Brian Roberts, 2B, Baltimore, age 29, who is projected at 30+ SB with the round 5, top pick, ahead of Robinson Cano (Round 5, pick 4). Howie Kendrick (Round 8, pick 10) was my back-up plan for 2B.

Lots of closers were gone, but I felt I needed my first starting pitcher more, since they count for more innings. I had already missed at Carpenter and Peavy. I went for King Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle, projected for 197 strikeouts in 197 innings. Todd Helton, 1B, Colorado, age 33 is projected for an OPS on .977, behind only Pujols, Howard, Berkmann and Ortiz at the position most filled with sluggers. Last year, he did poorly, especially on the road. If he repeats 2006, he still is worth starting for home games. He will be used at utility, or at 1B if Pujols misses games.

Next, I picked Roger Clemens, SP, Houston and Jonathon Paplebon, P, Boston. Clemens is not even signed to a contract. I felt he will pitch in May or June, as he did last year, since he was at spring training on the first day. Paplebon was a closer last year, and is projected as a starter this year. Both are worth having if they maintain their high strike out rates and low WHIPs and microscopic ERAs, as is projected.

In round 10 and 11, I continued with the theme of high risk starting pitchers with high strike out ratios. Bill James has relatively unproven Rich Hill, SP, Chicago Cubs at 241 K in 201 IP with a 1.16 WHIP. Mark Prior, SP, Chicago, also projects at more than a strikeout per inning. Having been injured most of the time over the past few years, I probably could have had Prior a few rounds later. Merely good players often go undrafted or become available later on, so I am happy with these picks, as they have the potential to be great.

My weak categories are stolen bases and saves. To correct this, I go with Willy Taveras, OF, Colorado, age 25, who appears to be a safe bet for 30-50 SB. If ESPN is correct and Taveras scores 120 runs, instead of the 80-100 that others project, then he is a major coup. Bob Wickman, RP, Atlanta, is projected at 25-40 saves. He was always able to hold onto the role in Cleveland, so I believe he keeps the job in Atlanta over other capable closers.

For round 14, 16 and 17, I am still looking for closers and find Armando Benitez, RP, San Francisco, Joel Pineiro, RP, Boston, and Kerry Wood, RP, Chicago. Benitez is projected at 6-28 saves. Pineiro is projected at up to 20 saves. Wood is projected at 3-5 saves. For save statistics, quality of pitcher really does not matter so much. Opportunity does matter. I will have to watch closely to see who emerges with the closer roles. If I keep four active closers, I will do fine in the saves category. Kerry Wood is not much of a pick, except for his legend. He struck out twenty and walked none in one of the best games ever pitched in the major leagues. Based on this legend, I believe he is worth a flyer. If he does not get saves, maybe he will get wins as a middle reliever. I can always drop a player who does not pan out. No one has more proven upside than Kerry Wood.

For Round 15, I chose Barry Bonds, OF, San Francisco, age 42, due to his league high projected OPS of 1.107. He takes a lot of games off and it is tedious to keep track of when he is playing and when he is not. But, when he plays, he contributes. Bonds, Pujols, and Helton all have career OPS of 1.000+. Quick research suggests that Ryan Howard and Manny Ramirez are the only other active members of the 1.000+ club. OPS is my top indicator of offensive performance, so I am feeling very good about the offense.

Counter-intuitively, the last positions of the draft often yield highly coveted players. I miss youngsters Chris Duncan (Round 18, pick 3), Alex Gordon (Round 18, pick 4) and Matt Kemp (Round 18, pick 7), each of whom were on my list. Instead, I land Anthony Reyes, SP, St. Louis, and Carlos Quentin, OF, Arizona, age 24. Reyes is projected for 131Ks in 142 IP and a 1.18 WHIP, according to Bill James. Quentin is projected for 105 "runs created".

My final picks are Morgan Ensberg, 3B, Houston, age 31 and Jim Edmonds, OF, St. Louis, age 37. Last year, I waited for the final round to choose a catcher. This year, I used the same strategy for the 3B position. Morgan Ensberg has a projected OPS of .859 and is essentially a replacement value player at 3B, unless he bounces back to his 36 HR 2005-level. I could have chosen Hank Blalock (Round 21, pick 5) to rebound. Edwin Encarnacian, Kevin Kouzmanoff or a player to be named later are my alternates at 3B, if Ensberg does not receive solid playing time. Though he is an injury risk, Edmonds has a projected OPS of .900, a worthy backup, if healthy and batting next to Pujols.

The Team:
1B Pujols, 2B Roberts, SS Rollins, 3B Ensberg, OF Holliday, OF Taveras, OF Bonds, UTL Helton, sub Quentin, sub Edmonds
SP Felix Hernandez (SEA), SP Paplebon (BOS), SP Clemens (HOU?), SP Hill (CHC), SP Prior (CHC), SP Reyes (STL)
RP Wickman (ATL), RP Benitez (SF), RP Pineiro (BOS), RP Wood (CHC)

Prognosis:
Last year, my team finished second of twelve. This year will depend a lot on the health of the top draft picks. Turning off the humidor in Colorado will help the three Rockies-- Matt Holliday, Todd Helton and Willy Taveras. Then, there is the question of whether the risky starting pitchers I drafted will actually throw.

Leaving Quentin and Edmonds on the bench, Bill James says:
215 HR, 860 R, 757 RBI, 127 SB, .299 AVG, 84 W, 59 SV, 1300 IP (1250 max.), 3.37 ERA, 1219 K, 1.15 WHIP

An average of five guesses, four projections plus ESPN says:
196 HR, 825 R, 696 RBI, 129 SB, .297 AVG , 76 W, 66 SV, 1187 IP, 3.85 ERA, 1011 K, 1.18 WHIP

How good are these results?
Probable League Leading: R, AVG, K, WHIP
Possible League Leading: ERA
Middle of the Pack: HR, RBI, SB
Need to Improve: W, SV

Paplebon, Boston, and Reyes of the World Series' Cardinals, are the only of the six starters on elite winning teams, which explains the low prediction for wins. If Derrek Lee and Alfonso Soriano of the Cubs do well, then perhaps, Hill and Prior will contribute more wins than projected. W is the hardest category to predict, so I'll take a wait and see attitude. To win the SV category, I must monitor the news. If I average four active closers, that is worth 120+ saves, which often wins a league. Toward more offensive points, I can bench Taveras for a power hitter, such as Edmonds, if HR and RBI turn out to be worth more than SB.

Of course, the challenge of managing the team is deciding when to drop injured players and deciding which dropped or undrafted players to pick up. If, for example, Pujols and Rollins are injured for extended periods, then the league will become very difficult to win.