Bashibashi, something I must have dreamed
How would you feel about trading away your top two players? Guess what? I just traded away Jimmy Rollins and Matt Holliday.
The 2007 Yahoo performance rank to date is shown for the newly acquired players. Does their perfomance to date justify the trade? I say no. I say I lose if I trade numbers 6 and 9 for numbers 4, 50 and 96.
Draft round and overall pick number shown in order of Yahoo 2007 rank to date. Asterisks denote newly acquired players.
* (4)
3. (25) Jimmy Rollins SS (6)---
2. (24) Matt Holliday OF (9)---
1. (1) Albert Pujols 1B (32)
5. (49) Brian Roberts 2B (37)
* (50)
---- Pat Neshek RP (58)
9. (97) Jonathan Papelbon RP (59)
---- James Shields SP (81)
8. (90) Ben Sheets SP (trade), DL (91)
* (96)
15. (169) Barry Bonds OF (107)
17. (198) B. J. Upton 3B, 2B, OF (free agent claim) (122)
6. (70) Ryan Zimmerman 3B (trade) (128)
10. (120) Rich Hill SP (134)
7. (73) Todd Helton 1B (148)
4. (48) Brian McCann C (238)
6. (71) Raúl Ibañez OF (waiver claim) (221)
12. (139) Nick Swisher 1B/OF (free agent claim) (229)
---- Yovani Gallardo SP (232)
---- Tim Lincecum SP (254)
7. (83) Tom Gordon RP (281)
6. (72) Félix Hernández SP (293)
8. (96) Roger Clemens SP (306)
---- Pedro Martinez DL (---)
The acquisitions are Jose Reyes, age 24, Vernon Wells, age 28, and pitcher Brandon Webb.
The trade looked more beneficial to Bashibashi in the preseason, as Rollins and Holliday have exceeded expectations and Wells has not. Based on this view of the players, Reyes was two rounds better than Rollins and Wells and Holliday are both early third rounders. Webb is a late fourth round pitcher.
Average Yahoo Draft Position, Draft round, overall pick number and Yahoo 2007 rank to date
1.2 1. (1) Albert Pujols 1B (32)
3.7 1. (2) Jose Reyes SS (4) NEW FROM TRADE
27.8 3. (25) Jimmy Rollins SS (6) GONE
28.8 2. (24) Matt Holliday OF (9) GONE
31.8 3. (26) Vernon Wells OF (96) NEW FROM TRADE
47.0 5. (50) Brandon Webb SP (50) NEW FROM TRADE
51.2 4. (48) Brian McCann C (238)
56.9 5. (49) Brian Roberts 2B (37)
68.9 6. (70) Ryan Zimmerman 3B (trade) (128)
69.9 6. (72) Félix Hernández SP (293)
75.9 8. (90) Ben Sheets SP (trade), DL (91)
85.6 9. (97) Jonathan Papelbon RP (59)
97.9 7. (83) Tom Gordon RP (281)
99.8 7. (73) Todd Helton 1B (148)
117.8 12. (139) Nick Swisher 1B/OF (free agent claim) (229)
120.8 6. (71) Raúl Ibañez OF (waiver claim) (221) DROPPED
132 8. (96) Roger Clemens SP (306)
144.7 10. (120) Rich Hill SP (134)
165.1 ---- Pedro Martinez DL (---)
165.7 15. (169) Barry Bonds OF (107)
217.7 17. (198) B. J. Upton 3B, 2B, OF (free agent claim) (122)
---- Pat Neshek RP (58)
---- James Shields SP (81)
---- Yovani Gallardo SP (232)
---- Tim Lincecum SP (254)
Will the results of the trade be predicted by 2007 performance? (Bashibashi loses.) Or, am I right to judge more on pre-2007 performance? (Bashibashi wins.)
AVG, BABIP
Holliday, 2007 .333, .380
Holliday, career .315, .352
Wells, 2007 .254, .272
Wells, career .285, .297
To justfy the trade, I tried to look to the future by looking to the past. Holliday is hitting 20 points higher than history and Wells is hitting 30 points too low. A look at batting average on balls in play convinces me that luck has gone in opposite directions for these two players. Pre-2007 results should better predict the future than the smaller sample size of 2007 year to date.
Likewise, previous year's performance suggests to me that Reyes has just as much power as Rollins, even though Rollins has 18 homeruns, so far, compared to 6 for Reyes. I was happy to get Pujols with the first overall pick. I never imagined ending up with the top two picks of Pujols and Reyes.
Rotoworld has Webb as the number 3 pitcher overall, which shocked me. I wasn't pursuing him as I am looking for wins, and Arizona is not the best place to find wins. Webb will be mostly in pitchers parks for the next month, so he should at least help the team in ERA and WHIP.
Bashibashi will need 30 more stolen bases from Reyes for him to make a difference. He could put Bashibashi in first or second in this category. Will the trading team miss Reyes? That team probably still finishes first or second in SB, so they benefit from the addition of Rollins and Holliday.
What about homeruns, rbi's and average? That is my biggest concern. I have to put on my rose colored glasses to imagine that Bashibashi homeruns, rbis and average go up. Holliday is batting .330 and Rollins has 18 homeruns. But, if from now on, Reyes bats the same as Holliday-- .305?- and Wells bats the same as Rollins-- .280?, then it is a push. Could Reyes match Rollins in homeruns, while Wells matches Holliday?
Never mind. The trade was vetoed.
The 2007 Yahoo performance rank to date is shown for the newly acquired players. Does their perfomance to date justify the trade? I say no. I say I lose if I trade numbers 6 and 9 for numbers 4, 50 and 96.
Draft round and overall pick number shown in order of Yahoo 2007 rank to date. Asterisks denote newly acquired players.
* (4)
3. (25) Jimmy Rollins SS (6)---
2. (24) Matt Holliday OF (9)---
1. (1) Albert Pujols 1B (32)
5. (49) Brian Roberts 2B (37)
* (50)
---- Pat Neshek RP (58)
9. (97) Jonathan Papelbon RP (59)
---- James Shields SP (81)
8. (90) Ben Sheets SP (trade), DL (91)
* (96)
15. (169) Barry Bonds OF (107)
17. (198) B. J. Upton 3B, 2B, OF (free agent claim) (122)
6. (70) Ryan Zimmerman 3B (trade) (128)
10. (120) Rich Hill SP (134)
7. (73) Todd Helton 1B (148)
4. (48) Brian McCann C (238)
6. (71) Raúl Ibañez OF (waiver claim) (221)
12. (139) Nick Swisher 1B/OF (free agent claim) (229)
---- Yovani Gallardo SP (232)
---- Tim Lincecum SP (254)
7. (83) Tom Gordon RP (281)
6. (72) Félix Hernández SP (293)
8. (96) Roger Clemens SP (306)
---- Pedro Martinez DL (---)
The acquisitions are Jose Reyes, age 24, Vernon Wells, age 28, and pitcher Brandon Webb.
The trade looked more beneficial to Bashibashi in the preseason, as Rollins and Holliday have exceeded expectations and Wells has not. Based on this view of the players, Reyes was two rounds better than Rollins and Wells and Holliday are both early third rounders. Webb is a late fourth round pitcher.
Average Yahoo Draft Position, Draft round, overall pick number and Yahoo 2007 rank to date
1.2 1. (1) Albert Pujols 1B (32)
3.7 1. (2) Jose Reyes SS (4) NEW FROM TRADE
27.8 3. (25) Jimmy Rollins SS (6) GONE
28.8 2. (24) Matt Holliday OF (9) GONE
31.8 3. (26) Vernon Wells OF (96) NEW FROM TRADE
47.0 5. (50) Brandon Webb SP (50) NEW FROM TRADE
51.2 4. (48) Brian McCann C (238)
56.9 5. (49) Brian Roberts 2B (37)
68.9 6. (70) Ryan Zimmerman 3B (trade) (128)
69.9 6. (72) Félix Hernández SP (293)
75.9 8. (90) Ben Sheets SP (trade), DL (91)
85.6 9. (97) Jonathan Papelbon RP (59)
97.9 7. (83) Tom Gordon RP (281)
99.8 7. (73) Todd Helton 1B (148)
117.8 12. (139) Nick Swisher 1B/OF (free agent claim) (229)
120.8 6. (71) Raúl Ibañez OF (waiver claim) (221) DROPPED
132 8. (96) Roger Clemens SP (306)
144.7 10. (120) Rich Hill SP (134)
165.1 ---- Pedro Martinez DL (---)
165.7 15. (169) Barry Bonds OF (107)
217.7 17. (198) B. J. Upton 3B, 2B, OF (free agent claim) (122)
---- Pat Neshek RP (58)
---- James Shields SP (81)
---- Yovani Gallardo SP (232)
---- Tim Lincecum SP (254)
Will the results of the trade be predicted by 2007 performance? (Bashibashi loses.) Or, am I right to judge more on pre-2007 performance? (Bashibashi wins.)
AVG, BABIP
Holliday, 2007 .333, .380
Holliday, career .315, .352
Wells, 2007 .254, .272
Wells, career .285, .297
To justfy the trade, I tried to look to the future by looking to the past. Holliday is hitting 20 points higher than history and Wells is hitting 30 points too low. A look at batting average on balls in play convinces me that luck has gone in opposite directions for these two players. Pre-2007 results should better predict the future than the smaller sample size of 2007 year to date.
Likewise, previous year's performance suggests to me that Reyes has just as much power as Rollins, even though Rollins has 18 homeruns, so far, compared to 6 for Reyes. I was happy to get Pujols with the first overall pick. I never imagined ending up with the top two picks of Pujols and Reyes.
Rotoworld has Webb as the number 3 pitcher overall, which shocked me. I wasn't pursuing him as I am looking for wins, and Arizona is not the best place to find wins. Webb will be mostly in pitchers parks for the next month, so he should at least help the team in ERA and WHIP.
Bashibashi will need 30 more stolen bases from Reyes for him to make a difference. He could put Bashibashi in first or second in this category. Will the trading team miss Reyes? That team probably still finishes first or second in SB, so they benefit from the addition of Rollins and Holliday.
What about homeruns, rbi's and average? That is my biggest concern. I have to put on my rose colored glasses to imagine that Bashibashi homeruns, rbis and average go up. Holliday is batting .330 and Rollins has 18 homeruns. But, if from now on, Reyes bats the same as Holliday-- .305?- and Wells bats the same as Rollins-- .280?, then it is a push. Could Reyes match Rollins in homeruns, while Wells matches Holliday?
Never mind. The trade was vetoed.
posted by David Rasmussen at 10:55 AM
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