Pitching

Bashibashi had great starting pitching at the start of the year, with Rich Hill and Felix Hernandez looking unhittable. More recently, there has been a string of poor outings. Consistently, there has been a dearth of games won. Consistently, the strikeout rate has been exceptional.

Current Bashibashi Stats:
IP W SV K K/9
Rich Hill 95 5 0 85 8.1
Felix Hernandez 68.7 4 0 73 9.6
Tim Lincecum 52 1 0 56 9.7
James Shields 26.3 2 0 29 9.9
Barry Zito 22 1 0 14 5.7
Roger Clemens 17.7 1 0 22 11.2
Y. Gallardo 13.3 1 0 12 8.1

Relievers, other 244 9 77 230 8.5
Total 539 24 77 521 8.7


What can Bashibashi expect for the future?

BABIP* ERA ERAC DIPS WHIP
Rich Hill 0.222 3.13 3.00 4.39 1.06
Felix Hernandez 0.367 4.33 5.09 3.28 1.53
James Shields 0.252 5.13 3.03 4.02 1.14
Roger Clemens 0.354 5.09 4.81 3.59 1.42
Barry Zito 0.256 4.5* 4.05 4.82 1.5*
Y. Gallardo 0.222 2.7 2.22 3.53 1.05
Tim Lincecum 0.272 5.54 3.45 3.7 1.35

Relievers, other - 3.69 - - 1.19
Total - 3.97 - - 1.24

*Note: BABIP, ERAC, and DIPS are for the 2007 season to date. Bashibashi data (K, ERA, WHIP) does not include every start, and this is significant for Barry Zito and James Shields, who were recently acquired.


BABIP, batting average on balls in play, indicates whether a pitcher has been lucky. The theory is that pitchers have no control of what happens once a ball is in play. Hernandez and Clemens have been unlucky. Gallardo, Hill and Zito have been lucky. Gallardo may see WHIP increase. Hernandez and Clemens will almost certainly see WHIP decrease.

RotoAuthority suggests that unusual pitchers such as Zito and Hill, with extreme curveballs, earn some luck by inducing weakly hit balls, and thus may be able to sustain low BABIP rates. Zito's career BABIP is .269. Hill's 2006 BABIP is .261. Hill may see WHIP increase in 2007, but I bet Zito's 2007 WHIP actually improves. Most everyone thought Zito would do well against the NL and has anything changed since the season started?

Lincecum (9.7K/9 IP) is too good to drop, but, no improvement to the San Francisco bullpen is foreseen. Component ERAs (ERAC) and Defensively independent ERAs (DIPS) indicate that Lincecum and Shields have had unlucky ERAs for Bashibashi.

Gallardo is in danger of losing a starting role, but with the support of the Milwaukee bullpen and hitters, Gallardo remains valuable, even as a reliever.

Current Pitching Points:
W 2/12, S 12/12, K 9/12, ERA 7/12, WHIP 9/12, TOTAL 39/60 (fourth of 12)

What to make of it all? Bashibashi will gain points in W and K. Points will come in W, if for no other reason than people toward the bottom of standings will stop paying attention. The K/9 rate leads the league. K/9 should regress to a more sustainable number, but nonetheless, K's should be worth 11 or 12 points at the end of the season. S will be worth 11 or 12 points as the rest of the league does not seem interested in acquiring enough closers to compete. ERA and WHIP are anybody's guess, but they should stay competitive. Felix Hernandez should certainly improve.

Unless another top pitcher becomes available, the main job of the manager is to bench pitchers in Colorado, Boston, or Arizona (open dome). With hitters, one generally knows what one will get, and the mistake is to be overly excited by a good month or disturbed by a bad month. With pitchers, I suspect the mistake is to be overly influenced by three months of data.