BashiBashiBashi BABIP
Is the Bashibashibashi start sustainable, or have the hitters just been lucky?
AVG BABIP BABIPCareer
David Wright 0.311 0.294 0.334
Joe Mauer 0.261 0.293 0.337
B.J. Upton 0.288 0.325 0.363
Derrek Lee 0.368 0.364 0.326
Nick Swisher 0.268 0.3 0.288
Justin Upton 0.37 0.417 0.321
Jim Thome 0.156 0.172 0.329
Edgar Renteria 0.268 0.313 0.326
Billy Butler 0.353 0.395 0.34
Mark Reynolds 0.28 0.31 0.378
Juan Pierre 0.25 0.259 0.318
Team Average 0.288 0.313 0.333
So far, the team is batting .284, and current players average .288. Derrek Lee, Justin Upton and Billy Butler have a higher batting average on balls in play in 2008 than they do for their careers. David Wright, Joe Mauer, B.J. Upton, Jim Thome and Juan Pierre have a poorer batting average on balls in play in 2008. Lets assume that the career BABIP will be the final 2008 value and that this raises or lowers batting average correspondingly. Let's see what batting averages are predicted.
AVG Predicted Lifetime BA
David Wright 0.311 0.351 .311
Joe Mauer 0.261 0.305 .313
B.J. Upton 0.288 0.326 .280
Derrek Lee 0.368 0.330 .281
Nick Swisher 0.268 0.256 .251
Justin Upton 0.37 0.274 .221
Jim Thome 0.156 0.313 .281
Edgar Renteria 0.268 0.281 .291
Billy Butler 0.353 0.298 .292
Mark Reynolds 0.28 0.348 .279
Juan Pierre 0.25 0.309 .301
Team Average 0.288 0.308 .282
So, despite the poor average for Juan Pierre so far, he is actually hitting like a .309 batter in 2008 . Several players appear to be better than their 2008 stats indicate, and who would have guessed that one of them is national league homerun co-leader, Mark Reynolds?
The predicted batting averages still suffer from small sample sizes, but except for Mark Reynolds at .348, everything looks sort of reasonable, does it not?
If I had to guess, based on the above numbers, I would put the Bashibashibashi batting average for 2008 at an even .300.
Disclaimer: The line for Corey Patterson is as follows: .239 AVG .179 BABIP .306 BABIPCareer. I refuse to predict a .356 average for an established player with a .258 career average, so I will drop him despite the numbers. Or, maybe I should take Corey's speed and drop Billy Butler instead?
AVG BABIP BABIPCareer
David Wright 0.311 0.294 0.334
Joe Mauer 0.261 0.293 0.337
B.J. Upton 0.288 0.325 0.363
Derrek Lee 0.368 0.364 0.326
Nick Swisher 0.268 0.3 0.288
Justin Upton 0.37 0.417 0.321
Jim Thome 0.156 0.172 0.329
Edgar Renteria 0.268 0.313 0.326
Billy Butler 0.353 0.395 0.34
Mark Reynolds 0.28 0.31 0.378
Juan Pierre 0.25 0.259 0.318
Team Average 0.288 0.313 0.333
So far, the team is batting .284, and current players average .288. Derrek Lee, Justin Upton and Billy Butler have a higher batting average on balls in play in 2008 than they do for their careers. David Wright, Joe Mauer, B.J. Upton, Jim Thome and Juan Pierre have a poorer batting average on balls in play in 2008. Lets assume that the career BABIP will be the final 2008 value and that this raises or lowers batting average correspondingly. Let's see what batting averages are predicted.
AVG Predicted Lifetime BA
David Wright 0.311 0.351 .311
Joe Mauer 0.261 0.305 .313
B.J. Upton 0.288 0.326 .280
Derrek Lee 0.368 0.330 .281
Nick Swisher 0.268 0.256 .251
Justin Upton 0.37 0.274 .221
Jim Thome 0.156 0.313 .281
Edgar Renteria 0.268 0.281 .291
Billy Butler 0.353 0.298 .292
Mark Reynolds 0.28 0.348 .279
Juan Pierre 0.25 0.309 .301
Team Average 0.288 0.308 .282
So, despite the poor average for Juan Pierre so far, he is actually hitting like a .309 batter in 2008 . Several players appear to be better than their 2008 stats indicate, and who would have guessed that one of them is national league homerun co-leader, Mark Reynolds?
The predicted batting averages still suffer from small sample sizes, but except for Mark Reynolds at .348, everything looks sort of reasonable, does it not?
If I had to guess, based on the above numbers, I would put the Bashibashibashi batting average for 2008 at an even .300.
Disclaimer: The line for Corey Patterson is as follows: .239 AVG .179 BABIP .306 BABIPCareer. I refuse to predict a .356 average for an established player with a .258 career average, so I will drop him despite the numbers. Or, maybe I should take Corey's speed and drop Billy Butler instead?
posted by David Rasmussen at 1:53 PM
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