BashiBashiBashi Retrospective

In March, I drafted my team and analyzed how the team might do. How do the results compare to Prognostications? Okay, I guess, though injuries and the like make them seem over-thought.

The draft picks:
1-David Wright, the first round pick had a solid season and nearly lived up to the hype, though had fewer SB and a lower BA than predicted. No complaints. Yahoo season rank:2
2-B.J. Upton disappointed with little power, though he somewhat unexpectedly was a stolen base leader. We learned that he played through a torn left labrum all season (he is right handed). He did not give second round performance, but at 24, next year, if healthy, there is no ceiling on his performance, though 2B eligibility will be gone. Yahoo rank:82
3-Eric Bedard developed a cyst in his pitching shoulder and pitched only 81 innings for 6 wins. The draft pick is defendable, but results were mediocre.
4-Derrek Lee stayed healthy, and basically hit his projection, though I was optimistic that he might still have a peak year in him. Yahoo rank: 66
5-Joe Mauer had a good year and hit a strong projection, and maybe even had a MVP-type year considering his position, but with 9HR and 1 SB will not be drafted significantly higher next year. Yahoo rank: 65
6-John Smoltz pitched just 28 excellent innings before season ending shoulder surgery
7-Édgar Rentería disappointed (current average .269) and was replaced at SS with Guillen, Hardy, Tulowitzki, Barmes and others.
8-Felix Hernandez (176.3IP, 9 W, 162 K, 3.27 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) hit his projection and by staying relatively healthy anchored the pitching. Yahoo rank: 307
9-Nick Swisher, White Sox, (current average .222) underperformed even his Oakland projection and was dropped May 18
10-Pedro Martinez could not stay healthy (38 IP for my team), was never his old dominant self and is currently available as a FA
11-Jim Thome had a slow start, but still has power (33HR/416 AB), met his projection, and was worth keeping. Yahoo rank:104
12-Matt Capps, season rank: 130, was excellent before his injury (traded with Justin Upton for Carl Crawford)
13-Joakim Soria, season rank: 34, was outstanding (traded for Corey Hart)
14-B. J. Ryan met projections. Season rank: 140
15-Matt Kemp was dropped early due to playing time issues, but met projections (currently 16 HR, 32 SB)
16-Rich Harden was dominant and surprised everyone with his relative health-- 142 IP, 10K, 177 Ks, 2.03, 1.06, Yahoo rank:23, behind only Cliff Lee on a per game basis
17- Jay Bruce had a spectacular start (once promoted), faded, and is finishing up as a top power hitter (21 HR, 318 AB). Season rank: 293
18-George Sherrill, season rank: 241, was leading the league in saves when traded for Carlos Guillen in late May
19-Justin Upton was batting .354 when traded
21-Pat Neshek was injured very early in the season
22-Ryan Theriot (.300, 21 SB) was dropped prior to the season

Other Key Hitters:
Carlos Quentin (36HR, 100 RBI in 130 games) was picked up April 27, when Justin Upton was traded, and performed like a future first rounder. Yahoo rank top 5 (before injury). Season rank: 36.
Carl Crawford (.275, 25 SB in 107 games) did not meet expectations and then was injured. Season rank: 201.
Torii Hunter, a FA, kicked in 11 HR, 11 SB in 257 AB. Yahoo rank:84
Corey Hart provided just 4 HR, 9 SB in 203 AB. Yahoo rank:91

Other Key Pitchers:
James Shields, a FA, was excellent-- 8 W. 3.62 ERA, 1.18 ERA in 109 IP. Yahoo rank:99
Matt Cain, a FA, provided 3W, 4.53 ERA, 1.38 ERA in 97 IP
Chris Young, who was available following his injury was outstanding-- 2.87 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 30 K in 31 IP. Yahoo rank: 281
Jonathon Broxton, FA-- 14 SV. Yahoo rank: 155
Mike Gonzalez, available following his injury-- 11 SV
Brad Ziegler, rookie reliever-- 8 SV
Brandon Morrow, available upon the injury to Putz-- 8 SV, 0.57 WHIP
Troy Percival, available after an injury-- 8 SV


An average of the seven projections said:
187 HR, 733 R, 704 RBI, 112 SB, .290 AVG , 76 W, 72 SV, 3.37 ERA, 1096 K in 1120 IP, 1.20 WHIP

Final Results
197 HR, 860 R*, 820 RBI*, 133 SB, .281 AVG, 66 W, 132 SV*, 3.45 ERA* (451 ER), 1101K* in 1178 1/3 IP, 1.25 WHIP (1475 h+w)
* led league for 12 pts

Final standings:
HR:8.5 pts., SB 10 pts, AVG 5 pts, W 6 pts, WHIP 10 pts, 99 1/2 pts TOTAL




Even with lots of patient hitters who draw walks, I lead my league in at bats, indicating I put more time in it than others in this "winners league." The best players this year were Carlos Quentin (a top 5 Yahoo rank while healthy, a free agent), Rich Harden (second to Cliff Lee in pitching rank per game, a 16th round pick), and first rounder, David Wright (Yahoo season rank 2).

Last year, I dropped pretty much everyone past the number 10 draft pick, but this year, just about everyone I drafted turned out to be valuable. The exceptions: Renteria, Swisher, Pedro.

Pitchers are deemed unreliable, so standard advice is to not draft them in early rounds and to scour the waiver wire for talent. Bucking this advice, I drafted Bedard in round 3 and Smoltz in round 6, both of whom were injured early on. If they had stayed healthy, perhaps I might have competed in the "win" category. I will probably draft an ace (and an extra power hitter) in early rounds next year, as the performance split between my draftees and my FA pickups is large, even excluding Rich Harden. (See the split data below.)

Team Pitching Splits:
Starters 829 IP, 50 W, 0 SV, 760 K, 3.64, 1.28
Relievers 267 IP, 10W, 129 SV, 275 K, 3.14, 1.12

Team Drafted Pitchers 625 IP, 36 W, 83 SV, 644 K, 2.95, 1.18
Drafted (excluding Harden):483 IP, 26 W, 83 SV, 467K, 3.23, 1.22
Team FA Pickups 471 IP, 24 W, 46 SV, 391K, 4.26, 1.32

Results by Day

Trophy Case



And, did the team do better this year or in 2007?
2007: overall Yahoo rank: 2623, 143.65 adjusted points
2008: overall Yahoo rank: 5754, 139.46 adjusted points

So, maybe the team has been in the top one percent for two years in a row.