Hillary Clinton's 7-10 Split

We have heard a lot about how old people vote and how young people vote. We also hear about race, religion, ethnicity, education, income and class. But, ideology is important too.

The leftmost pin in bowling is the 7-pin, so let us call the left wing of the Democratic party "7-pins". The left feels strongly that the Iraq War should be ended, and believes Bill Clinton was too conservative. Hillary lost this pin by supporting the war for too long. Obama locked up this pin based on his early opposition to the war, and panders to this base with anti-corporate talk. Assuming a Clinton-McCain matchup, the Green party could do well with this group. Voter turnout of 7-pins will depend on whom is on the ballot.

The rightmost pin in bowling is the 10-pin, so we will call Reagan Democrats "10-pins". 10-pins believe that the job of a politician is to lead, and to work with others toward common value based purpose. Reagan did not focus so much on his positions, which in many cases were unpopular. Instead, he emphasized his values. We did not hear, "I will do this, this, and this." We heard, "I , like you, believe in this platitude, therefore, I will work toward that." George Lakoff believes that Reagan succeeded with 10-pins through this values based framing of issues, and suggests that Obama is the best Democrat at framing issues. Clinton's confrontational, position based politics hurts her popularity with 10-pins. Obama's success in "red states" indicates popularity with 10-pins, though McCain has a strong chance at these voters at well.

Hillary is a strong candidate with the less ideological voters. She is excellent on television, and capable of using any campaign style. However, she will never win the 7-pins or 10-pins, and therefore, to extend the metaphor, she is not ever going to bowl strikes. Hillary did not lose this election based on demographics or style. She lost it based on ideology.