Pitching Stubbornness
The fun part of fantasy baseball is identifying upside. The tedious part is making sure you have players that are in a good position to do well and actually play. This note is about the fun part.
Francisco Liriano (4.41 xFIP, .228 BABIP, 6.75 K/9) does not look like a good pitcher per most of the stats I follow. But, snow and hail and less than 50F temperatures explain most of this. So, I will stick with him even if ZIPS projects a 4.15 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and 8.57 K/9 the rest of the way.
Fernando Hernandez (3.07 xFIP, .292 BABIP, 8.72 K/9) has the peripherals that ZIPS loves. ZIPS suggests 2.85, 1.15, 8.81, so of course he starts for Yahoo.
What of my other Yahoo starters?
Player K/9, ERA, xFIP, BABIP, PERA, PWHIP, PK/9
Pineda 8.71, 2.72, 3.45, .256, 3.95, 1.29, 7.77
Carpenter 7.05, 4.47, 3.70, .324, 3.41, 1.19, 6.55
Bumgarner 6.81, 3.23, 3.46, .317, 3.39, 1.31, 6.12
Bedard 8.36, 3.47, 3.30, .288, 3.85, 1.30, 8.62
D. Hudson 7.92, 3.82, 3.39, .331, 3.36, 1.21, 7.82
Zimmermann 6.75, 3.10, 3.51, .279, 3.36, 1.21, 7.52
Daniel Hudson sticks out as having a high BABIP, an indicator of back luck. So, it is easy to see why his projection is optimistic. I am not sure why projections for Pineda and Bedard are so conservative. I guess Dan S. must expect a flame out before Pineda gets shut down and before Bedard returns to the DL. Conversely, what has Carpenter done this year to deserve such a positive projection?
Bottom line. Liriano and King Felix are the Yahoo aces and the rest of the pitchers are all very solid. If I have to pick a number three (and as the team is approaching an IP limit, durability is not a concern), I go with Bedard's 3.30 xFIP and high strikeout rate. Carpenter and Bumgarner may have some extra value as they pitch for good teams and therefore may win more, but these six pitchers are more or less inter-changeable.
That was so fun, I need check out the Asakusbashi starters. These are my aces:
Player K/9, ERA, xFIP, BABIP, PERA, PWHIP, PK/9
Halladay 9.13, 2.56, 2.31, .308, 2.82, 1.06, 8.06
Liriano 7.30, 4.67, 4.41, .228, 4.15, 1.39, 8.57
I am going to list the others based on which pitchers have had the least luck:
Player K/9, ERA, xFIP, BABIP, PERA, PWHIP, PK/9
Morrow 10.93, 5.63, 3.60, .358, 3.81, 1.35, 9.85
Jackson 7.31, 4.39, 3.54, .346, 4.38, 1.39, 7.15
Nolasco 7.35, 4.23, 4.23, .332, 3.26, 1.20, 8.28
Garcia 8.11, 3.18, 2.88, .309, 3.15, 1.25, 7.65
Kuroda 6.93, 3.31, 3.49, .298, 3.91, 1.23, 6.64
Ogando 6.61, 2.71, 3.70, .226, 3.06, 1.23, 8.32
Jamie Garcia, based on xFIP is the best pitcher of this group. Oddly, Ricky Nolasco, with the highest xFIP gets the lowest WHIP projection. Brandon Morrow is dominant at times, and given he has been quite unlucky, certainly he gets more opportunities. Likewise, Edwin Jackson alternates between dominant and dominated, and has been unlucky to date. With projected WHIPS of 1.23, Ogando and Kuroda are certainly worth hanging onto. Given the above, pitching actually seems solid, though the team could certainly use another ace in exchange for power.
Francisco Liriano (4.41 xFIP, .228 BABIP, 6.75 K/9) does not look like a good pitcher per most of the stats I follow. But, snow and hail and less than 50F temperatures explain most of this. So, I will stick with him even if ZIPS projects a 4.15 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and 8.57 K/9 the rest of the way.
Fernando Hernandez (3.07 xFIP, .292 BABIP, 8.72 K/9) has the peripherals that ZIPS loves. ZIPS suggests 2.85, 1.15, 8.81, so of course he starts for Yahoo.
What of my other Yahoo starters?
Player K/9, ERA, xFIP, BABIP, PERA, PWHIP, PK/9
Pineda 8.71, 2.72, 3.45, .256, 3.95, 1.29, 7.77
Carpenter 7.05, 4.47, 3.70, .324, 3.41, 1.19, 6.55
Bumgarner 6.81, 3.23, 3.46, .317, 3.39, 1.31, 6.12
Bedard 8.36, 3.47, 3.30, .288, 3.85, 1.30, 8.62
D. Hudson 7.92, 3.82, 3.39, .331, 3.36, 1.21, 7.82
Zimmermann 6.75, 3.10, 3.51, .279, 3.36, 1.21, 7.52
Daniel Hudson sticks out as having a high BABIP, an indicator of back luck. So, it is easy to see why his projection is optimistic. I am not sure why projections for Pineda and Bedard are so conservative. I guess Dan S. must expect a flame out before Pineda gets shut down and before Bedard returns to the DL. Conversely, what has Carpenter done this year to deserve such a positive projection?
Bottom line. Liriano and King Felix are the Yahoo aces and the rest of the pitchers are all very solid. If I have to pick a number three (and as the team is approaching an IP limit, durability is not a concern), I go with Bedard's 3.30 xFIP and high strikeout rate. Carpenter and Bumgarner may have some extra value as they pitch for good teams and therefore may win more, but these six pitchers are more or less inter-changeable.
That was so fun, I need check out the Asakusbashi starters. These are my aces:
Player K/9, ERA, xFIP, BABIP, PERA, PWHIP, PK/9
Halladay 9.13, 2.56, 2.31, .308, 2.82, 1.06, 8.06
Liriano 7.30, 4.67, 4.41, .228, 4.15, 1.39, 8.57
I am going to list the others based on which pitchers have had the least luck:
Player K/9, ERA, xFIP, BABIP, PERA, PWHIP, PK/9
Morrow 10.93, 5.63, 3.60, .358, 3.81, 1.35, 9.85
Jackson 7.31, 4.39, 3.54, .346, 4.38, 1.39, 7.15
Nolasco 7.35, 4.23, 4.23, .332, 3.26, 1.20, 8.28
Garcia 8.11, 3.18, 2.88, .309, 3.15, 1.25, 7.65
Kuroda 6.93, 3.31, 3.49, .298, 3.91, 1.23, 6.64
Ogando 6.61, 2.71, 3.70, .226, 3.06, 1.23, 8.32
Jamie Garcia, based on xFIP is the best pitcher of this group. Oddly, Ricky Nolasco, with the highest xFIP gets the lowest WHIP projection. Brandon Morrow is dominant at times, and given he has been quite unlucky, certainly he gets more opportunities. Likewise, Edwin Jackson alternates between dominant and dominated, and has been unlucky to date. With projected WHIPS of 1.23, Ogando and Kuroda are certainly worth hanging onto. Given the above, pitching actually seems solid, though the team could certainly use another ace in exchange for power.
posted by David Rasmussen at 11:10 AM
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