Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Bill James 2012 sez...

Matt Kemp, OF ($36) 31HR 103R 104 RBI 32 SB .293
Mike Stanton, OF (F1, $21) 39 88 103 5 .273
Dee Gordon, SS ($6) 0 72 30 42 .270
Brett Lawrie, 2B or 3B ($6) 22 92 75 30 .284
Matt Moore ($6) no projection
Jason Motte ($6) 81K 5W 29 SV 10.5 br/9 2.80
Kyle Farnsworth ($9) 52 4 23 10.5 3.06

These guys still have the inside track on my protection list.

While Matt Moore is not projected, I found this similarity to be interesting:
Matt Moore: 95.7 mph fastball, throws 71% FB, 14% curve, 14% change
Steve Strasburg:95.8 mph fastball, 73% FB, 13% curve, 13% change

The fastball speeds are 1-2 for pitchers who started in 2011 and are expected to start in 2012. Neftali Feliz threw 96.3 mph, and may start next year, but it is likely his fastball would be somewhat slower over more innings. Bill James projects Feliz as a closer and does not project Strasburg.

And why is fastball speed important? Bill James points out 2011 K rates:
94+ mph=> 8.6 K/9
92-94 mph=> 7.5 K/9
88-90 mph=> 6.2 K/9
<88 mph=> 6.0 K/9

Labels: ,